Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is vital for the effective and economic operation of power grids and energy markets. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of electricity demand as well as its dependency on various external factors renders STLF a challenging task. To that end, several deep learning models have been proposed in the literature for STLF, reporting promising results. In order to evaluate the accuracy of said models in day-ahead forecasting settings, in this paper we focus on the national net aggregated STLF of Portugal and conduct a comparative study considering a set of indicative, well-established deep autoregressive models, namely multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), neural basis expansion coefficient analysis (N-BEATS), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). Moreover, we identify factors that significantly affect the demand and investigate their impact on the accuracy of each model. Our results suggest that N-BEATS consistently outperforms the rest of the examined models. MLP follows, providing further evidence towards the use of feed-forward networks over relatively more sophisticated architectures. Finally, certain calendar and weather features like the hour of the day and the temperature are identified as key accuracy drivers, providing insights regarding the forecasting approach that should be used per case.

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training data. Implementation of distance aware uncertainty estimation can be used to detect these scenarios and provide a level of confidence associated with their predictions. In this paper, we present results from using Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) methods for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) accelerator (classification) and we provide an uncertainty aware surrogate model for the Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) Booster Accelerator Complex (regression).

The computational method of discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD), used as a coarse-grained model of true atomistic dynamics of lattice dislocations, has become of powerful tool to study metal plasticity arising from the collective behavior of dislocations. As a mesoscale approach, motion of dislocations in the DDD model is prescribed via the mobility law; a function which specifies how dislocation lines should respond to the driving force. However, the development of traditional hand-crafted mobility laws can be a cumbersome task and may involve detrimental simplifications. Here we introduce a machine-learning (ML) framework to streamline the development of data-driven mobility laws which are modeled as graph neural networks (GNN) trained on large-scale Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations of crystal plasticity. We illustrate our approach on BCC tungsten and demonstrate that our GNN mobility implemented in large-scale DDD simulations accurately reproduces the challenging tension/compression asymmetry observed in ground-truth MD simulations while correctly predicting the flow stress at lower straining rate conditions unseen during training, thereby demonstrating the ability of our method to learn relevant dislocation physics. Our DDD+ML approach opens new promising avenues to improve fidelity of the DDD model and to incorporate more complex dislocation motion behaviors in an automated way, providing a faithful proxy for dislocation dynamics several orders of magnitude faster than ground-truth MD simulations.

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) denied environments/conditions require unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to energy-efficiently and reliably fly. To this end, this study presents perception-and-energy-aware motion planning for UAVs in GNSS-denied environments. The proposed planner solves the trajectory planning problem by optimizing a cost function consisting of two indices: the total energy consumption of a UAV and the perception quality of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensor mounted on the UAV. Before online navigation, a high-fidelity simulator acquires a flight dataset to learn energy consumption for the UAV and heteroscedastic uncertainty associated with LiDAR measurements, both as functions of the horizontal velocity of the UAV. The learned models enable the online planner to estimate energy consumption and perception quality, reducing UAV battery usage and localization errors. Simulation experiments in a photorealistic environment confirm that the proposed planner can address the trade-off between energy efficiency and perception quality under heteroscedastic uncertainty. The open-source code is released at https://gitlab.com/ReI08/perception-energy-planner.

In a multitude of industrial fields, a key objective entails optimising resource management whilst satisfying user requirements. Resource management by industrial practitioners can result in a passive transfer of user loads across resource providers, a phenomenon whose accurate characterisation is both challenging and crucial. This research reveals the existence of user clusters, which capture macro-level user transfer patterns amid resource variation. We then propose CLUSTER, an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric model capable of automating cluster identification, and thereby predicting user transfer in response to resource variation. Furthermore, CLUSTER facilitates uncertainty quantification for further reliable decision-making. Our method enables privacy protection by functioning independently of personally identifiable information. Experiments with simulated and real-world data from the communications industry reveal a pronounced alignment between prediction results and empirical observations across a spectrum of resource management scenarios. This research establishes a solid groundwork for advancing resource management strategy development.

Recently, linear computed tomography (LCT) systems have actively attracted attention. To weaken projection truncation and image the region of interest (ROI) for LCT, the backprojection filtration (BPF) algorithm is an effective solution. However, in BPF for LCT, it is difficult to achieve stable interior reconstruction, and for differentiated backprojection (DBP) images of LCT, multiple rotation-finite inversion of Hilbert transform (Hilbert filtering)-inverse rotation operations will blur the image. To satisfy multiple reconstruction scenarios for LCT, including interior ROI, complete object, and exterior region beyond field-of-view (FOV), and avoid the rotation operations of Hilbert filtering, we propose two types of reconstruction architectures. The first overlays multiple DBP images to obtain a complete DBP image, then uses a network to learn the overlying Hilbert filtering function, referred to as the Overlay-Single Network (OSNet). The second uses multiple networks to train different directional Hilbert filtering models for DBP images of multiple linear scannings, respectively, and then overlays the reconstructed results, i.e., Multiple Networks Overlaying (MNetO). In two architectures, we introduce a Swin Transformer (ST) block to the generator of pix2pixGAN to extract both local and global features from DBP images at the same time. We investigate two architectures from different networks, FOV sizes, pixel sizes, number of projections, geometric magnification, and processing time. Experimental results show that two architectures can both recover images. OSNet outperforms BPF in various scenarios. For the different networks, ST-pix2pixGAN is superior to pix2pixGAN and CycleGAN. MNetO exhibits a few artifacts due to the differences among the multiple models, but any one of its models is suitable for imaging the exterior edge in a certain direction.

Air transport poses significant environmental challenges, particularly regarding the role of flight contrails in climate change due to their potential global warming impact. Traditional computer vision techniques struggle under varying remote sensing image conditions, and conventional machine learning approaches using convolutional neural networks are limited by the scarcity of hand-labeled contrail datasets. To address these issues, we employ few-shot transfer learning to introduce an innovative approach for accurate contrail segmentation with minimal labeled data. Our methodology leverages backbone segmentation models pre-trained on extensive image datasets and fine-tuned using an augmented contrail-specific dataset. We also introduce a novel loss function, termed SR Loss, which enhances contrail line detection by transforming the image space into Hough space. This transformation results in a significant performance improvement over generic image segmentation loss functions. Our approach offers a robust solution to the challenges posed by limited labeled data and significantly advances the state of contrail detection models.

Machine learning and deep learning models have become essential in the recent fast development of artificial intelligence in many sectors of the society. It is now widely acknowledge that the development of these models has an environmental cost that has been analyzed in many studies. Several online and software tools have been developed to track energy consumption while training machine learning models. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive introduction and comparison of these tools for AI practitioners wishing to start estimating the environmental impact of their work. We review the specific vocabulary, the technical requirements for each tool. We compare the energy consumption estimated by each tool on two deep neural networks for image processing and on different types of servers. From these experiments, we provide some advice for better choosing the right tool and infrastructure.

The present study proposes clustering techniques for designing demand response (DR) programs for commercial and residential prosumers. The goal is to alter the consumption behavior of the prosumers within a distributed energy community in Italy. This aggregation aims to: a) minimize the reverse power flow at the primary substation, occuring when generation from solar panels in the local grid exceeds consumption, and b) shift the system wide peak demand, that typically occurs during late afternoon. Regarding the clustering stage, we consider daily prosumer load profiles and divide them across the extracted clusters. Three popular machine learning algorithms are employed, namely k-means, k-medoids and agglomerative clustering. We evaluate the methods using multiple metrics including a novel metric proposed within this study, namely peak performance score (PPS). The k-means algorithm with dynamic time warping distance considering 14 clusters exhibits the highest performance with a PPS of 0.689. Subsequently, we analyze each extracted cluster with respect to load shape, entropy, and load types. These characteristics are used to distinguish the clusters that have the potential to serve the optimization objectives by matching them to proper DR schemes including time of use, critical peak pricing, and real-time pricing. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed clustering algorithm in generating meaningful flexibility clusters, while the derived DR pricing policy encourages consumption during off-peak hours. The developed methodology is robust to the low availability and quality of training datasets and can be used by aggregator companies for segmenting energy communities and developing personalized DR policies.

Reservoir Computing (RC) is a simple and efficient model-free framework for forecasting the behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems from data. Here, we show that there exist commonly-studied systems for which leading RC frameworks struggle to learn the dynamics unless key information about the underlying system is already known. We focus on the important problem of basin prediction -- determining which attractor a system will converge to from its initial conditions. First, we show that the predictions of standard RC models (echo state networks) depend critically on warm-up time, requiring a warm-up trajectory containing almost the entire transient in order to identify the correct attractor. Accordingly, we turn to Next-Generation Reservoir Computing (NGRC), an attractive variant of RC that requires negligible warm-up time. By incorporating the exact nonlinearities in the original equations, we show that NGRC can accurately reconstruct intricate and high-dimensional basins of attraction, even with sparse training data (e.g., a single transient trajectory). Yet, a tiny uncertainty in the exact nonlinearity can render prediction accuracy no better than chance. Our results highlight the challenges faced by data-driven methods in learning the dynamics of multistable systems and suggest potential avenues to make these approaches more robust.