Active learning aims to construct an effective training set by iteratively curating the most informative unlabeled data for annotation, which is practical in low-resource tasks. Most active learning techniques in classification rely on the model's uncertainty or disagreement to choose unlabeled data. However, previous work indicates that existing models are poor at quantifying predictive uncertainty, which can lead to over-confidence in superficial patterns and a lack of exploration. Inspired by the cognitive processes in which humans deduce and predict through causal information, we propose a novel Explainable Active Learning framework (XAL) for low-resource text classification, which aims to encourage classifiers to justify their inferences and delve into unlabeled data for which they cannot provide reasonable explanations. Specifically, besides using a pre-trained bi-directional encoder for classification, we employ a pre-trained uni-directional decoder to generate and score the explanation. A ranking loss is proposed to enhance the decoder's capability in scoring explanations. During the selection of unlabeled data, we combine the predictive uncertainty of the encoder and the explanation score of the decoder to acquire informative data for annotation. As XAL is a general framework for text classification, we test our methods on six different classification tasks. Extensive experiments show that XAL achieves substantial improvement on all six tasks over previous AL methods. Ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of each component, and human evaluation shows that the model trained in XAL performs surprisingly well in explaining its prediction.

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as hydraulic conductivity (K) from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in subsurface characterization. However, the use of inverse modeling is limited for ill-posed, high-dimensional applications due to computational costs and poor prediction accuracy with sparse datasets. In this paper, we combine Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP), a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure, and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA), an ensemble-based inversion method, for accurate and accelerated subsurface characterization. WGAN-GP is trained to generate high-dimensional K fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface examples are used to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown K fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method, especially for the channelized and fractured field examples. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

Inspired by the necessity of morphological adaptation in animals, a growing body of work has attempted to expand robot training to encompass physical aspects of a robot's design. However, reinforcement learning methods capable of optimizing the 3D morphology of a robot have been restricted to reorienting or resizing the limbs of a predetermined and static topological genus. Here we show policy gradients for designing freeform robots with arbitrary external and internal structure. This is achieved through actions that deposit or remove bundles of atomic building blocks to form higher-level nonparametric macrostructures such as appendages, organs and cavities. Although results are provided for open loop control only, we discuss how this method could be adapted for closed loop control and sim2real transfer to physical machines in future.

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's r With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19% and 51% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. The covariates used in these predictions include geographical coordinates, remote sensing data, satellite imagery, human mobility data (Chang et al., 2022), and phone metadata (Blumenstock et al., 2015; Burke et al., 2019). While having access to quality covariates is essential, it can be challenging due to limited spatiotemporal coverage, high costs, and accessibility barriers (Ball et al., 2017).

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) widely exists in real-word complex systems, such as traffic and energy systems, making their forecasting crucial for understanding and influencing these systems. Recently, deep learning-based approaches have gained much popularity for effectively modeling temporal and spatial dependencies in MTS, specifically in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) and Spatial-Temporal Forecasting (STF). However, the fair benchmarking issue and the choice of technical approaches have been hotly debated in related work. Such controversies significantly hinder our understanding of progress in this field. Thus, this paper aims to address these controversies to present insights into advancements achieved. To resolve benchmarking issues, we introduce BasicTS, a benchmark designed for fair comparisons in MTS forecasting. BasicTS establishes a unified training pipeline and reasonable evaluation settings, enabling an unbiased evaluation of over 30 popular MTS forecasting models on more than 18 datasets. Furthermore, we highlight the heterogeneity among MTS datasets and classify them based on temporal and spatial characteristics. We further prove that neglecting heterogeneity is the primary reason for generating controversies in technical approaches. Moreover, based on the proposed BasicTS and rich heterogeneous MTS datasets, we conduct an exhaustive and reproducible performance and efficiency comparison of popular models, providing insights for researchers in selecting and designing MTS forecasting models.

Concerns around future dangers from advanced AI often centre on systems hypothesised to have intrinsic characteristics such as agent-like behaviour, strategic awareness, and long-range planning. We label this cluster of characteristics as "Property X". Most present AI systems are low in "Property X"; however, in the absence of deliberate steering, current research directions may rapidly lead to the emergence of highly capable AI systems that are also high in "Property X". We argue that "Property X" characteristics are intrinsically dangerous, and when combined with greater capabilities will result in AI systems for which safety and control is difficult to guarantee. Drawing on several scholars' alternative frameworks for possible AI research trajectories, we argue that most of the proposed benefits of advanced AI can be obtained by systems designed to minimise this property. We then propose indicators and governance interventions to identify and limit the development of systems with risky "Property X" characteristics.

With its vast expanse, exceeding that of Western Europe by twice, the Amazon rainforest stands as the largest forest of the Earth, holding immense importance in global climate regulation. Yet, deforestation detection from remote sensing data in this region poses a critical challenge, often hindered by the persistent cloud cover that obscures optical satellite data for much of the year. Addressing this need, this paper proposes three deep-learning models tailored for deforestation monitoring, utilizing SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) multitemporal data moved by its independence on atmospheric conditions. Specifically, the study proposes three novel recurrent fully convolutional network architectures-namely, RRCNN-1, RRCNN-2, and RRCNN-3, crafted to enhance the accuracy of deforestation detection. Additionally, this research explores replacing a bitemporal with multitemporal SAR sequences, motivated by the hypothesis that deforestation signs quickly fade in SAR images over time. A comprehensive assessment of the proposed approaches was conducted using a Sentinel-1 multitemporal sequence from a sample site in the Brazilian rainforest. The experimental analysis confirmed that analyzing a sequence of SAR images over an observation period can reveal deforestation spots undetectable in a pair of images. Notably, experimental results underscored the superiority of the multitemporal approach, yielding approximately a five percent enhancement in F1-Score across all tested network architectures. Particularly the RRCNN-1 achieved the highest accuracy and also boasted half the processing time of its closest counterpart.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) may be inaccurate or biased due to incomplete atmospheric physical processes, insufficient spatial-temporal resolution, and inherent uncertainty of weather. Previous studies have attempted to correct biases by using handcrafted features and domain knowledge, or by applying general machine learning models naively. They do not fully explore the complicated meteorologic interactions and spatial dependencies in the atmosphere dynamically, which limits their applicability in NWP bias-correction. Specifically, weather factors interact with each other in complex ways, and these interactions can vary regionally. In addition, the interactions between weather factors are further complicated by the spatial dependencies between regions, which are influenced by varied terrain and atmospheric motions. To address these issues, we propose WeatherGNN, an NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to learn meteorologic and geographic relationships in a unified framework. Our approach includes a factor-wise GNN that captures meteorological interactions within each grid (a specific location) adaptively, and a fast hierarchical GNN that captures spatial dependencies between grids dynamically. Notably, the fast hierarchical GNN achieves linear complexity with respect to the number of grids, enhancing model efficiency and scalability. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of WeatherGNN in comparison with other SOTA methods, with an average improvement of 40.50\% on RMSE compared to the original NWP.

Deciding the best future execution time is a critical task in many business activities while evolving time series forecasting, and optimal timing strategy provides such a solution, which is driven by observed data. This solution has plenty of valuable applications to reduce the operation costs. In this paper, we propose a mechanism that combines a probabilistic time series forecasting task and an optimal timing decision task as a first systematic attempt to tackle these practical problems with both solid theoretical foundation and real-world flexibility. Specifically, it generates the future paths of the underlying time series via probabilistic forecasting algorithms, which does not need a sophisticated mathematical dynamic model relying on strong prior knowledge as most other common practices. In order to find the optimal execution time, we formulate the decision task as an optimal stopping problem, and employ a recurrent neural network structure (RNN) to approximate the optimal times. Github repository: \url{github.com/ChenPopper/optimal_timing_TSF}.

Geospatial sciences include a wide range of applications, from environmental monitoring transportation to infrastructure planning, as well as location-based analysis and services. Graph theory algorithms in mathematics have emerged as indispensable tools in these domains due to their capability to model and analyse spatial relationships efficiently. This article explores the applications of graph theory algorithms in geospatial sciences, highlighting their role in network analysis, spatial connectivity, geographic information systems, and various other spatial problem-solving scenarios like digital twin. The article provides a comprehensive idea about graph theory's key concepts and algorithms that assist the geospatial modelling processes and insights into real-world geospatial challenges and opportunities. It lists the extensive research, innovative technologies and methodologies implemented in this domain. Keywords: Graph theory, Geospatial Science, Digital twin 1. Introduction Geospatial science has developed as a vibrant field characterised by intellectual vigour, conceptual expansion, and improved analytical skills as a consequence of the Quantitative Revolution in the subject of geography through a spatially integrated socio-environmental science that outshines prior disciplinary ties, borders, and limitations (Berry et al., 2008). Geospatial science, commonly referred to as geomatics (Aina 2012), is a multidisciplinary discipline that focuses on comprehending, analysing, and visualising spatial data about the Earth's surface using information technology to describe the connections between geography, individuals, places, and Earth processes. Technologies like Global Positioning System (GPS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and remote sensing are frequently used as observational, measuring, and analytical tools, helping in the understanding of numerous events by providing the information with a spatial context. Geospatial technology is being used increasingly in every industry today, including resource management, disaster management, forestry, logistics, infrastructure planning, and the study of climate change and other environmental issues (Dangermond and Goodchild, 2020). Geospatial technology and the information created are becoming increasingly significant in all economic sectors, making the economy, society, and the environment an indispensable pillar of sustainable development. (Scott and Rajabifard, 2017).