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TimeGNN: Temporal Dynamic Graph Learning for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting lies at the core of important realworld applications in many fields of science and engineering. The abundance of large time series datasets that consist of complex patterns and long-term dependencies has led to the development of various neural network architectures. Graph neural network approaches, which jointly learn a graph structure based on the correlation of raw values of multivariate time series while forecasting, have recently seen great success. However, such solutions are often costly to train and difficult to scale. In this paper, we propose TimeGNN, a method that learns dynamic temporal graph representations that can capture the evolution of inter-series patterns along with the correlations of multiple series. TimeGNN achieves inference times 4 to 80 times faster than other state-of-the-art graph-based methods while achieving comparable forecasting performance.


Distributed Optimization under Edge Agreements: A Continuous-Time Algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generalized from the concept of consensus, this paper considers a group of edge agreements, i.e. constraints defined for neighboring agents, in which each pair of neighboring agents is required to satisfy one edge agreement constraint. Edge agreements are defined locally to allow more flexibility than a global consensus. This work formulates a multi-agent optimization problem under edge agreements and proposes a continuous-time distributed algorithm to solve it. Both analytical proof and numerical examples are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.


Two-step reinforcement learning for model-free redesign of nonlinear optimal regulator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many practical control applications, the performance level of a closed-loop system degrades over time due to the change of plant characteristics. Thus, there is a strong need for redesigning a controller without going through the system modeling process, which is often difficult for closed-loop systems. Reinforcement learning (RL) is one of the promising approaches that enable model-free redesign of optimal controllers for nonlinear dynamical systems based only on the measurement of the closed-loop system. However, the learning process of RL usually requires a considerable number of trial-and-error experiments using the poorly controlled system that may accumulate wear on the plant. To overcome this limitation, we propose a model-free two-step design approach that improves the transient learning performance of RL in an optimal regulator redesign problem for unknown nonlinear systems. Specifically, we first design a linear control law that attains some degree of control performance in a model-free manner, and then, train the nonlinear optimal control law with online RL by using the designed linear control law in parallel. We introduce an offline RL algorithm for the design of the linear control law and theoretically guarantee its convergence to the LQR controller under mild assumptions. Numerical simulations show that the proposed approach improves the transient learning performance and efficiency in hyperparameter tuning of RL.


A Comparison Between Invariant and Equivariant Classical and Quantum Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning algorithms are heavily relied on to understand the vast amounts of data from high-energy particle collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The data from such collision events can naturally be represented with graph structures. Therefore, deep geometric methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), have been leveraged for various data analysis tasks in high-energy physics. One typical task is jet tagging, where jets are viewed as point clouds with distinct features and edge connections between their constituent particles. The increasing size and complexity of the LHC particle datasets, as well as the computational models used for their analysis, greatly motivate the development of alternative fast and efficient computational paradigms such as quantum computation. In addition, to enhance the validity and robustness of deep networks, one can leverage the fundamental symmetries present in the data through the use of invariant inputs and equivariant layers. In this paper, we perform a fair and comprehensive comparison between classical graph neural networks (GNNs) and equivariant graph neural networks (EGNNs) and their quantum counterparts: quantum graph neural networks (QGNNs) and equivariant quantum graph neural networks (EQGNN). The four architectures were benchmarked on a binary classification task to classify the parton-level particle initiating the jet. Based on their AUC scores, the quantum networks were shown to outperform the classical networks. However, seeing the computational advantage of the quantum networks in practice may have to wait for the further development of quantum technology and its associated APIs.


Efficient Model-Based Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning through Greedy Mirror Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many machine learning tasks can be solved by minimizing a convex function of an occupancy measure over the policies that generate them. These include reinforcement learning, imitation learning, among others. This more general paradigm is called the Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning problem (CURL). Since CURL invalidates classical Bellman equations, it requires new algorithms. We introduce MD-CURL, a new algorithm for CURL in a finite horizon Markov decision process. MD-CURL is inspired by mirror descent and uses a non-standard regularization to achieve convergence guarantees and a simple closed-form solution, eliminating the need for computationally expensive projection steps typically found in mirror descent approaches. We then extend CURL to an online learning scenario and present Greedy MD-CURL, a new method adapting MD-CURL to an online, episode-based setting with partially unknown dynamics. Like MD-CURL, the online version Greedy MD-CURL benefits from low computational complexity, while guaranteeing sub-linear or even logarithmic regret, depending on the level of information available on the underlying dynamics.


Google DeepMind AI Breakthrough Could Help Battery and Chip Development

TIME - Tech

Researchers at Google DeepMind have used artificial intelligence to predict the structures of more than 2 million new materials, in a breakthrough that could have wide-reaching benefits in sectors such as renewable energy and computing. DeepMind published 381,000 of the 2.2 million crystal structures that it predicts to be most stable. The breakthrough increases the number of known stable materials by a factor of ten. Although the materials will still need to be synthesized and tested, steps which can take months or even years, the latest development is expected to accelerate the discovery of new materials, which will be required for applications such as energy storage, solar cells, and superconductor chips. "While materials play a very critical role in almost any technology, we as humanity know only about a few tens of thousands of stable materials," says Ekin Dogus Cubuk, a Staff Research Scientist at Google Brain, who worked on the DeepMind AI tool, known as Graph Networks for Materials Exploration (GNoME).


Crystal-hunting DeepMind AI could help discover new wonder materials

New Scientist

A crystal structure predicted by the GNoME AI. It contains barium (blue), niobium (white) and oxygen (green). An artificial intelligence created by Google DeepMind may help revolutionise materials science, providing new ways to make better batteries, solar panels, computer chips and many more vital technologies. "Anytime somebody wants to improve their technology, it inevitably includes improving the materials," says Ekin Dogus Cubuk at DeepMind. "We just wanted them to have more options."


The Download: the year's most-read climate stories, and Amazon's chatbot

MIT Technology Review

Wildfires, floods and heatwaves displaced and killed thousands of people across the world as extreme weather events worsened, and scientists have concluded the past 12 months were the hottest since records began. Our climate experts James Temple and Casey Crownhart have been covering the most promising technologies that could make a difference. Take a look back over some of MIT Technology Review's most-read climate stories of the year--and make sure you keep up-to-date with all the latest news by subscribing to The Spark, our weekly climate and energy tech newsletter. This geothermal startup showed its wells can be used like a giant underground battery. If Fervo Energy's field results work at commercial scale, it could become cheaper and easier to green the grid.


The END: Estimation Network Design for games under partial-decision information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent decision problems are typically solved via distributed iterative algorithms, where the agents only communicate between themselves on a peer-to-peer network. Each agent usually maintains a copy of each decision variable, while agreement among the local copies is enforced via consensus protocols. Yet, each agent is often directly influenced by a small portion of the decision variables only: neglecting this sparsity results in redundancy, poor scalability with the network size, communication and memory overhead. To address these challenges, we develop Estimation Network Design (END), a framework for the design and analysis of distributed algorithms, generalizing several recent approaches. END algorithms can be tuned to exploit problem-specific sparsity structures, by optimally allocating copies of each variable only to a subset of agents, to improve efficiency and minimize redundancy. We illustrate the END's potential by designing new algorithms for generalised Nash equilibrium (GNE) seeking under partial-decision information, that can leverage the sparsity in cost functions, constraints and aggregation values. Finally, we test numerically our methods on a unicast rate allocation problem, revealing greatly reduced communication and memory costs.


ADA-GP: Accelerating DNN Training By Adaptive Gradient Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural network training is inherently sequential where the layers finish the forward propagation in succession, followed by the calculation and back-propagation of gradients (based on a loss function) starting from the last layer. The sequential computations significantly slow down neural network training, especially the deeper ones. Prediction has been successfully used in many areas of computer architecture to speed up sequential processing. Therefore, we propose ADA-GP, which uses gradient prediction adaptively to speed up deep neural network (DNN) training while maintaining accuracy. ADA-GP works by incorporating a small neural network to predict gradients for different layers of a DNN model. ADA-GP uses a novel tensor reorganization method to make it feasible to predict a large number of gradients. ADA-GP alternates between DNN training using backpropagated gradients and DNN training using predicted gradients. ADA-GP adaptively adjusts when and for how long gradient prediction is used to strike a balance between accuracy and performance. Last but not least, we provide a detailed hardware extension in a typical DNN accelerator to realize the speed up potential from gradient prediction. Our extensive experiments with fifteen DNN models show that ADA-GP can achieve an average speed up of 1.47X with similar or even higher accuracy than the baseline models. Moreover, it consumes, on average, 34% less energy due to reduced off-chip memory accesses compared to the baseline accelerator.