We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential Quantile Regression in Deep Q Networks (CEQR-DQN)}$, aims to address key challenges associated with separately estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in stochastic environments. It combines deep evidential learning with quantile calibration based on principles of conformal inference to provide explicit, sample-free computations of $\textit{global}$ uncertainty as opposed to $\textit{local}$ estimates based on simple variance, overcoming limitations of traditional methods in computational and statistical efficiency and handling of out-of-distribution (OOD) observations. Tested on a suite of miniaturized Atari games (i.e., MinAtar), CEQR-DQN is shown to surpass similar existing frameworks in scores and learning speed. Its ability to rigorously evaluate uncertainty improves exploration strategies and can serve as a blueprint for other algorithms requiring uncertainty awareness.

Wildfire prediction has become increasingly crucial due to the escalating impacts of climate change. Traditional CNN-based wildfire prediction models struggle with handling missing oceanic data and addressing the long-range dependencies across distant regions in meteorological data. In this paper, we introduce an innovative Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based model for global wildfire prediction. We propose a hybrid model that combines the spatial prowess of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with the temporal depth of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our approach uniquely transforms global climate and wildfire data into a graph representation, addressing challenges such as null oceanic data locations and long-range dependencies inherent in traditional models. Benchmarking against established architectures using an unseen ensemble of JULES-INFERNO simulations, our model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we emphasise the model's explainability, unveiling potential wildfire correlation clusters through community detection and elucidating feature importance via Integrated Gradient analysis. Our findings not only advance the methodological domain of wildfire prediction but also underscore the importance of model transparency, offering valuable insights for stakeholders in wildfire management.

These equations are derived from fundamental principles and mechanistic laws, such as the physical laws in thermodynamics and transport phenomena. High-fidelity models with these equations can serve as digital representations of the physical systems in the real world. However, the physically accurate representation is accompanied by a heightened mathematical complexity that elevates the computational expense of simulation. This impedes the use of high-fidelity physical models especially in applications where it is essential to simulate a system repeatedly in a timely manner. To efficiently generate simulation outputs, data-driven approaches have sought to substitute a high-fidelity physical model with a surrogate model (Misener and Biegler, 2023; Bhosekar and Ierapetritou, 2018; Bradley et al., 2022; Williams and Cremaschi, 2021), A surrogate model stands for a reducedorder model that aims for a computationally efficient approximation at the cost of a certain level of accuracy. This approach provides a more practical means of inferring a system's responses under a great variety of conditions.

However, a decision-makers often take identical actions in limitation of CP is that the prediction intervals provide valid contexts with identical predicted outcomes. Conformal coverage only marginally, averaged across all possible contexts prediction helps decision-makers quantify - where'context' refers to the information available for outcome uncertainty for actions, allowing for better decision-making. Thus, for a specific context, CP intervals risk management. Inspired by this perspective, may not accurately capture the true outcome variability, leading we introduce self-consistent conformal prediction, to unreliable and potentially harmful decision-making which yields both Venn-Abers calibrated predictions (van Calster et al., 2019; Lloyd-Jones et al., 2019).

Capabilities of long-range flight and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) are essential for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). Tiltrotor VTOLs have the advantage of balancing control simplicity and system complexity due to their redundant control authority. Prior work on controlling these aircraft either requires separate controllers and switching modes for different vehicle configurations or performs the control allocation on separate actuator sets, which cannot fully use the potential of the redundancy of tiltrotor. This paper introduces a unified MPC-based control strategy for a customized tiltrotor VTOL Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), which does not require mode-switching and can perform the control allocation in a consistent way. The incorporation of four independently controllable rotors in VTOL design offers an extra level of redundancy, allowing the VTOL to accommodate actuator failures. The result shows that our approach outperforms PID controllers while maintaining unified control. It allows the VTOL to perform smooth acceleration/deceleration, and precise coordinated turns. In addition, the independently controlled tilts enable the vehicle to handle actuator failures, ensuring that the aircraft remains operational even in the event of a servo or motor malfunction.

The fact that accurately predicted information can serve as an energy source paves the way for new approaches to autonomous learning. The energy derived from a sequence of successful predictions can be recycled as an immediate incentive and resource, driving the enhancement of predictive capabilities in AI agents. We propose that, through a series of straightforward meta-architectural adjustments, any unsupervised learning apparatus could achieve complete independence from external energy sources, evolving into a self-sustaining physical system with a strong intrinsic 'drive' for continual learning. This concept, while still purely theoretical, is exemplified through the autoencoder, a quintessential model for unsupervised efficient coding. We use this model to demonstrate how progressive paradigm shifts can profoundly alter our comprehension of learning and intelligence. By reconceptualizing learning as an energy-seeking process, we highlight the potential for achieving true autonomy in learning systems, thereby bridging the gap between algorithmic concepts and physical models of intelligence.

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point predictions, but its naive application to regression problems yields non-adaptive regions. New conformal scores, often relying upon quantile regressors or conditional density estimators, aim to address this limitation. Although they are useful for creating prediction bands, these scores are detached from the original goal of quantifying the uncertainty around an arbitrary predictive model. This paper presents a new, model-agnostic family of methods to calibrate prediction intervals for regression problems with local coverage guarantees. Our approach is based on pursuing the coarsest partition of the feature space that approximates conditional coverage. We create this partition by training regression trees and Random Forests on conformity scores. Our proposal is versatile, as it applies to various conformity scores and prediction settings and demonstrates superior scalability and performance compared to established baselines in simulated and real-world datasets. We provide a Python package locart that implements our methods using the standard scikit-learn interface.

In this paper, we address the challenge of learning with limited fault data for power transformers. Traditional operation and maintenance tools lack effective predictive capabilities for potential faults. The scarcity of extensive fault data makes it difficult to apply machine learning techniques effectively. To solve this problem, we propose a novel approach that leverages the knowledge graph (KG) technology in combination with gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT). This method is designed to efficiently learn from a small set of high-dimensional data, integrating various factors influencing transformer faults and historical operational data. Our approach enables accurate safe state assessments and fault analyses of power transformers despite the limited fault characteristic data. Experimental results demonstrate that this method outperforms other learning approaches in prediction accuracy, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and logistic regression (LR). Furthermore, it offers significant improvements in progressiveness, practicality, and potential for widespread application.

Air pollution represents a pivotal environmental challenge globally, playing a major role in climate change via greenhouse gas emissions and negatively affecting the health of billions. However predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of pollutants remains challenging. The scarcity of ground-based monitoring facilities and the dependency of air pollution modeling on comprehensive datasets, often inaccessible for numerous areas, complicate this issue. In this work, we introduce GeoFormer, a compact model that combines a vision transformer module with a highly efficient time-series transformer module to predict surface-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from Sentinel-5P satellite imagery. We train the proposed model to predict surface-level NO2 measurements using a dataset we constructed with Sentinel-5P images of ground-level monitoring stations, and their corresponding NO2 concentration readings. The proposed model attains high accuracy (MAE 5.65), demonstrating the efficacy of combining vision and time-series transformer architectures to harness satellite-derived data for enhanced GHG emission insights, proving instrumental in advancing climate change monitoring and emission regulation efforts globally.

This paper considers a class of noncooperative games in which the feasible decision sets of all players are coupled together by a coupled inequality constraint. Adopting the variational inequality formulation of the game, we first introduce a new local edge-based equilibrium condition and develop a distributed primal-dual proximal algorithm with full information. Considering challenges when communication delays occur, we devise an asynchronous distributed algorithm to seek a generalized Nash equilibrium. This asynchronous scheme arbitrarily activates one player to start new computations independently at different iteration instants, which means that the picked player can use the involved out-dated information from itself and its neighbors to perform new updates. A distinctive attribute is that the proposed algorithms enable the derivation of new distributed forward-backward-like extensions. In theoretical aspect, we provide explicit conditions on algorithm parameters, for instance, the step-sizes to establish a sublinear convergence rate for the proposed synchronous algorithm. Moreover, the asynchronous algorithm guarantees almost sure convergence in expectation under the same step-size conditions and some standard assumptions. An interesting observation is that our analysis approach improves the convergence rate of prior synchronous distributed forward-backward-based algorithms. Finally, the viability and performance of the proposed algorithms are demonstrated by numerical studies on the networked Cournot competition.