We propose a robust portfolio optimization approach based on quantile statistics. The proposed method is robust to extreme events in asset returns, and accommodates large portfolios under limited historical data. Specifically, we show that the risk of the estimated portfolio converges to the oracle optimal risk with parametric rate under weakly dependent asset returns. The theory does not rely on higher order moment assumptions, thus allowing for heavy-tailed asset returns. Moreover, the rate of convergence quantifies that the size of the portfolio under management is allowed to scale exponentially with the sample size of the historical data. The empirical effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated under both synthetic and real stock data. Our work extends existing ones by achieving robustness in high dimensions, and by allowing serial dependence.

Ukraine launched one of its most severe attacks into Russia on Tuesday – destroying critical energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia claims it is doing everything necessary to thwart new attacks – including the invasion of anti-Kremlin troops threatening to disrupt the upcoming presidential election.

Artificial neural networks are most commonly trained with the back-propagation algorithm, where the gradient for learning is provided by back-propagating the error, layer by layer, from the output layer to the hidden layers. A recently discovered method called feedback-alignment shows that the weights used for propagating the error backward don't have to be symmetric with the weights used for propagation the activation forward. In fact, random feedback weights work evenly well, because the network learns how to make the feedback useful. In this work, the feedback alignment principle is used for training hidden layers more independently from the rest of the network, and from a zero initial condition. The error is propagated through fixed random feedback connections directly from the output layer to each hidden layer. This simple method is able to achieve zero training error even in convolutional networks and very deep networks, completely without error backpropagation. The method is a step towards biologically plausible machine learning because the error signal is almost local, and no symmetric or reciprocal weights are required. Experiments show that the test performance on MNIST and CIFAR is almost as good as those obtained with back-propagation for fully connected networks. If combined with dropout, the method achieves 1.45% error on the permutation invariant MNIST task.

Scalable and effective exploration remains a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). While there are methods with optimality guarantees in the setting of discrete state and action spaces, these methods cannot be applied in high-dimensional deep RL scenarios. As such, most contemporary RL relies on simple heuristics such as ɛ-greedy exploration or adding Gaussian noise to the controls. This paper introduces Variational Information Maximizing Exploration (VIME), an exploration strategy based on maximization of information gain about the agent's belief of environment dynamics. We propose a practical implementation, using variational inference in Bayesian neural networks which efficiently handles continuous state and action spaces. VIME modifies the MDP reward function, and can be applied with several different underlying RL algorithms. We demonstrate that VIME achieves significantly better performance compared to heuristic exploration methods across a variety of continuous control tasks and algorithms, including tasks with very sparse rewards.

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, which is guaranteed to outperform a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and analyze a new model-based approach that computes a safe policy, given an inaccurate model of the system's dynamics and guarantees on the accuracy of this model. The new robust method uses this model to directly minimize the (negative) regret w.r.t. the baseline policy. Contrary to existing approaches, minimizing the regret allows one to improve the baseline policy in states with accurate dynamics and to seamlessly fall back to the baseline policy, otherwise. We show that our formulation is NP-hard and propose a simple approximate algorithm. Our empirical results on several domains further show that even the simple approximate algorithm can outperform standard approaches.

We consider the problem of learning the underlying graph of an unknown Ising model on p spins from a collection of i.i.d.

The stochastic block model (SBM) has long been studied in machine learning and network science as a canonical model for clustering and community detection. In the recent years, new developments have demonstrated the presence of threshold phenomena for this model, which have set new challenges for algorithms. For the detection problem in symmetric SBMs, Decelle et al. conjectured that the so-called Kesten-Stigum (KS) threshold can be achieved efficiently. This was proved for two communities, but remained open for three and more communities. We prove this conjecture here, obtaining a general result that applies to arbitrary SBMs with linear size communities. The developed algorithm is a linearized acyclic belief propagation (ABP) algorithm, which mitigates the effects of cycles while provably achieving the KS threshold in O(n ln n) time. This extends prior methods by achieving universally the KS threshold while reducing or preserving the computational complexity. ABP is also connected to a power iteration method on a generalized nonbacktracking operator, formalizing the spectral-message passing interplay described in Krzakala et al., and extending results from Bordenave et al.

While neural machine translation (NMT) is making good progress in the past two years, tens of millions of bilingual sentence pairs are needed for its training. However, human labeling is very costly. To tackle this training data bottleneck, we develop a dual-learning mechanism, which can enable an NMT system to automatically learn from unlabeled data through a dual-learning game. This mechanism is inspired by the following observation: any machine translation task has a dual task, e.g., English-to-French translation (primal) versus French-to-English translation (dual); the primal and dual tasks can form a closed loop, and generate informative feedback signals to train the translation models, even if without the involvement of a human labeler. In the dual-learning mechanism, we use one agent to represent the model for the primal task and the other agent to represent the model for the dual task, then ask them to teach each other through a reinforcement learning process. Based on the feedback signals generated during this process (e.g., the languagemodel likelihood of the output of a model, and the reconstruction error of the original sentence after the primal and dual translations), we can iteratively update the two models until convergence (e.g., using the policy gradient methods). We call the corresponding approach to neural machine translation dual-NMT. Experiments show that dual-NMT works very well on English French translation; especially, by learning from monolingual data (with 10% bilingual data for warm start), it achieves a comparable accuracy to NMT trained from the full bilingual data for the French-to-English translation task.

Ukraine has launched a barrage of drone and missile strikes against Russia, igniting two oil refineries. The overnight attacks, some of which reached deep into Russian territory, hit refineries in towns hundreds of miles apart in the Nizhny Novgorod and Oryol regions. No casualties were reported, according to regional officials. In Kstovo, a town located 828km (514 miles) from the Ukraine border in Nizhny Novgorod, a fuel and energy complex, reportedly owned by Lukoil – Russia's largest privately-owned company – was attacked by drones, according to regional Governor Gleb Nikitin. "The special services are working on the spot, using all the necessary force and means to localise the fire at one of the oil refining installations," he said on the Telegram messaging app.

We develop a scalable, computationally efficient method for the task of energy disaggregation for home appliance monitoring. In this problem the goal is to estimate the energy consumption of each appliance over time based on the total energy-consumption signal of a household. The current state of the art is to model the problem as inference in factorial HMMs, and use quadratic programming to find an approximate solution to the resulting quadratic integer program. Here we take a more principled approach, better suited to integer programming problems, and find an approximate optimum by combining convex semidefinite relaxations randomized rounding, as well as a scalable ADMM method that exploits the special structure of the resulting semidefinite program. Simulation results both in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.