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Grey-informed neural network for time-series forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural network models have shown outstanding performance and successful resolutions to complex problems in various fields. However, the majority of these models are viewed as black-box, requiring a significant amount of data for development. Consequently, in situations with limited data, constructing appropriate models becomes challenging due to the lack of transparency and scarcity of data. To tackle these challenges, this study suggests the implementation of a grey-informed neural network (GINN). The GINN ensures that the output of the neural network follows the differential equation model of the grey system, improving interpretability. Moreover, incorporating prior knowledge from grey system theory enables traditional neural networks to effectively handle small data samples. Our proposed model has been observed to uncover underlying patterns in the real world and produce reliable forecasts based on empirical data.


Self-supervised 6-DoF Robot Grasping by Demonstration via Augmented Reality Teleoperation System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most existing 6-DoF robot grasping solutions depend on strong supervision on grasp pose to ensure satisfactory performance, which could be laborious and impractical when the robot works in some restricted area. To this end, we propose a self-supervised 6-DoF grasp pose detection framework via an Augmented Reality (AR) teleoperation system that can efficiently learn human demonstrations and provide 6-DoF grasp poses without grasp pose annotations. Specifically, the system collects the human demonstration from the AR environment and contrastively learns the grasping strategy from the demonstration. For the real-world experiment, the proposed system leads to satisfactory grasping abilities and learning to grasp unknown objects within three demonstrations.


An Interpretable Power System Transient Stability Assessment Method with Expert Guiding Neural-Regression-Tree

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning based transient stability assessment (TSA) has achieved great success, yet the lack of interpretability hinders its industrial application. Although a great number of studies have tried to explore the interpretability of network solutions, many problems still remain unsolved: (1) the difference between the widely accepted power system knowledge and the generated interpretive rules is large, (2) the probability characteristics of the neural network have not been fully considered during generating the interpretive rules, (3) the cost of the trade-off between accuracy and interpretability is too heavy to take. To address these issues, an interpretable power system Transient Stability Assessment method with Expert guiding Neural-Regression-Tree (TSA-ENRT) is proposed. TSA-ENRT utilizes an expert guiding nonlinear regression tree to approximate the neural network prediction and the neural network can be explained by the interpretive rules generated by the tree model. The nonlinearity of the expert guiding nonlinear regression tree is endowed with the extracted knowledge from a simple two-machine three-bus power system, which forms an expert knowledge base and thus the generated interpretive rules are more consistent with human cognition. Besides, the expert guiding tree model can build a bridge between the interpretive rules and the probability prediction of neural network in a regression way. By regularizing the neural network with the average decision length of ENRT, the association of the neural network and tree model is constructed in the model training level which provides a better trade-off between accuracy and interpretability. Extensive experiments indicate the interpretive rules generated by the proposed TSA-ENRT are highly consistent with the neural network prediction and more agreed with human expert cognition.


Distributionally Robust Policy and Lyapunov-Certificate Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article presents novel methods for synthesizing distributionally robust stabilizing neural controllers and certificates for control systems under model uncertainty. A key challenge in designing controllers with stability guarantees for uncertain systems is the accurate determination of and adaptation to shifts in model parametric uncertainty during online deployment. We tackle this with a novel distributionally robust formulation of the Lyapunov derivative chance constraint ensuring a monotonic decrease of the Lyapunov certificate. To avoid the computational complexity involved in dealing with the space of probability measures, we identify a sufficient condition in the form of deterministic convex constraints that ensures the Lyapunov derivative constraint is satisfied. We integrate this condition into a loss function for training a neural network-based controller and show that, for the resulting closed-loop system, the global asymptotic stability of its equilibrium can be certified with high confidence, even with Out-of-Distribution (OoD) model uncertainties. To demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed methodology, we compare it with an uncertainty-agnostic baseline approach and several reinforcement learning approaches in two control problems in simulation. Open-source implementations of the examples are available at https://github.com/KehanLong/DR


Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.


Traffic Divergence Theory: An Analysis Formalism for Dynamic Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic dynamics is universally crucial in analyzing and designing almost any network. This article introduces a novel theoretical approach to analyzing network traffic dynamics. This theory's machinery is based on the notion of traffic divergence, which captures the flow (im)balance of network nodes and links. It features various analytical probes to investigate both spatial and temporal traffic dynamics. In particular, the maximal traffic distribution in a network can be characterized by spatial traffic divergence rate, which reveals the relative difference among node traffic divergence. To illustrate the usefulness, we apply the theory to two network-driven problems: throughput estimation of data center networks and power-optimized communication planning for robot networks, and show the merits of the proposed theory through simulations.


Transformer-based Stagewise Decomposition for Large-Scale Multistage Stochastic Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

On the other hand, RL and MSP are Solving large-scale multistage stochastic programming suitable for discrete-time problems. RL utilizes simulated (MSP) problems poses a significant challenge or real-world experience to learn optimal decision-making as commonly used stagewise decomposition through a trial-and-error process, while MSP seeks to find algorithms, including stochastic dual dynamic optimal decisions through mathematical formulation in either programming (SDDP), face growing time complexity continuous or discrete spaces. Therefore, the selection as the subproblem size and problem count of a methodology depends on specific problem characteristics, increase.


Optimizing the Deployment of Tiny Transformers on Low-Power MCUs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer networks are rapidly becoming SotA in many fields, such as NLP and CV. Similarly to CNN, there is a strong push for deploying Transformer models at the extreme edge, ultimately fitting the tiny power budget and memory footprint of MCUs. However, the early approaches in this direction are mostly ad-hoc, platform, and model-specific. This work aims to enable and optimize the flexible, multi-platform deployment of encoder Tiny Transformers on commercial MCUs. We propose a complete framework to perform end-to-end deployment of Transformer models onto single and multi-core MCUs. Our framework provides an optimized library of kernels to maximize data reuse and avoid unnecessary data marshaling operations into the crucial attention block. A novel MHSA inference schedule, named Fused-Weight Self-Attention, is introduced, fusing the linear projection weights offline to further reduce the number of operations and parameters. Furthermore, to mitigate the memory peak reached by the computation of the attention map, we present a Depth-First Tiling scheme for MHSA. We evaluate our framework on three different MCU classes exploiting ARM and RISC-V ISA, namely the STM32H7, the STM32L4, and GAP9 (RV32IMC-XpulpV2). We reach an average of 4.79x and 2.0x lower latency compared to SotA libraries CMSIS-NN (ARM) and PULP-NN (RISC-V), respectively. Moreover, we show that our MHSA depth-first tiling scheme reduces the memory peak by up to 6.19x, while the fused-weight attention can reduce the runtime by 1.53x, and number of parameters by 25%. We report significant improvements across several Tiny Transformers: for instance, when executing a transformer block for the task of radar-based hand-gesture recognition on GAP9, we achieve a latency of 0.14ms and energy consumption of 4.92 micro-joules, 2.32x lower than the SotA PULP-NN library on the same platform.


Characterization of Large Language Model Development in the Datacenter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have presented impressive performance across several transformative tasks. However, it is non-trivial to efficiently utilize large-scale cluster resources to develop LLMs, often riddled with numerous challenges such as frequent hardware failures, intricate parallelization strategies, and imbalanced resource utilization. In this paper, we present an in-depth characterization study of a six-month LLM development workload trace collected from our GPU datacenter Acme. Specifically, we investigate discrepancies between LLMs and prior task-specific Deep Learning (DL) workloads, explore resource utilization patterns, and identify the impact of various job failures. Our analysis summarizes hurdles we encountered and uncovers potential opportunities to optimize systems tailored for LLMs. Furthermore, we introduce our system efforts: (1) fault-tolerant pretraining, which enhances fault tolerance through LLM-involved failure diagnosis and automatic recovery. (2) decoupled scheduling for evaluation, which achieves timely performance feedback via trial decomposition and scheduling optimization.


Composite Bayesian Optimization In Function Spaces Using NEON -- Neural Epistemic Operator Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

High-dimensional problems are prominent across all corners of science and industrial applications. Within this realm, optimizing black-box functions and operators can be computationally expensive and require large amounts of hardto-obtain data for training surrogate models. Uncertainty quantification becomes a key element in this setting, as the ability to quantify what a surrogate model does not know offers a guiding principle for new data acquisition. However, existing methods for surrogate modeling with built-in uncertainty quantification, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs) [1], have demonstrated difficulty in modeling problems that exist in high dimensions. While other methods such as Bayesian neural networks [2] (BNNs) and deep ensembles [3] are able to mitigate this issue, their computational cost can still be prohibitive for some applications. This problem becomes more prominent in Operator Learning, where either inputs or outputs of a model are functions residing in infinite-dimensional function spaces. The field of Operator Learning has had many advances in recent years[4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9], with applications across many domains in the natural sciences and engineering, but so far its integration with uncertainty quantification is limited [10, 11]. In addition to safety-critical problems using deep learning such as ones in medicine [12, 13] and autonomous driving [14], the generation of uncertainty measures can also be important for decision making when collecting new data in the physical sciences. Total uncertainty is often made up of two distinct parts: epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty.