Probabilistic forecasting is essential in decision-making, particularly in fields where accurately assessing risk is critical, such as healthcare [1, 2, 3], weather forecasting [4, 5], flood risk assessment [6], seismic hazard prediction [7, 8], renewable energy sector [9], and economic and financial risk management [10, 11]. These models provide insights into possible future outcomes and their likelihoods, aiding decision-makers in resource allocation, policy formulation, and strategic planning. The importance of these forecasts lies in their ability to model uncertainty about the future in the form of predictive distribution. The ultimate goal of a probabilistic forecaster is to output a predictive distribution with good calibration and sharpness. Calibration is concerned with the statistical consistency between predictive distribution and observation, while sharpness governs the confidence in the forecast itself. A sharp probabilistic forecaster outputs a narrow predictive distribution, which represents high confidence in the forecast. However, sharpness is desirable in conjunction with calibration to employ high confidence aligned with the true distribution.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a classical model for decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Often they are viewed as state transformers with planning objectives defined with respect to paths over MDP states. An increasingly popular alternative is to view them as distribution transformers, giving rise to a sequence of probability distributions over MDP states. For instance, reachability and safety properties in modeling robot swarms or chemical reaction networks are naturally defined in terms of probability distributions over states. Verifying such distributional properties is known to be hard and often beyond the reach of classical state-based verification techniques. In this work, we consider the problems of certified policy (i.e. controller) verification and synthesis in MDPs under distributional reach-avoidance specifications. By certified we mean that, along with a policy, we also aim to synthesize a (checkable) certificate ensuring that the MDP indeed satisfies the property. Thus, given the target set of distributions and an unsafe set of distributions over MDP states, our goal is to either synthesize a certificate for a given policy or synthesize a policy along with a certificate, proving that the target distribution can be reached while avoiding unsafe distributions. To solve this problem, we introduce the novel notion of distributional reach-avoid certificates and present automated procedures for (1) synthesizing a certificate for a given policy, and (2) synthesizing a policy together with the certificate, both providing formal guarantees on certificate correctness. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates the ability of our method to solve several non-trivial examples, including a multi-agent robot-swarm model, to synthesize certified policies and to certify existing policies.

Model editing aims to correct outdated or erroneous knowledge in large language models (LLMs) without the need for costly retraining. Lifelong model editing is the most challenging task that caters to the continuous editing requirements of LLMs. Prior works primarily focus on single or batch editing; nevertheless, these methods fall short in lifelong editing scenarios due to catastrophic knowledge forgetting and the degradation of model performance. Although retrieval-based methods alleviate these issues, they are impeded by slow and cumbersome processes of integrating the retrieved knowledge into the model. In this work, we introduce RECIPE, a RetriEval-augmented ContInuous Prompt lEarning method, to boost editing efficacy and inference efficiency in lifelong learning. RECIPE first converts knowledge statements into short and informative continuous prompts, prefixed to the LLM's input query embedding, to efficiently refine the response grounded on the knowledge. It further integrates the Knowledge Sentinel (KS) that acts as an intermediary to calculate a dynamic threshold, determining whether the retrieval repository contains relevant knowledge. Our retriever and prompt encoder are jointly trained to achieve editing properties, i.e., reliability, generality, and locality. In our experiments, RECIPE is assessed extensively across multiple LLMs and editing datasets, where it achieves superior editing performance. RECIPE also demonstrates its capability to maintain the overall performance of LLMs alongside showcasing fast editing and inference speed.

The Arcane Kids, a video game collective from Los Angeles, have a manifesto that I think about all the time, but particularly when I find art that surprises me, or approaches traditional formats in new and exciting ways. The second line simply states: "The fastest way to the truth is a joke." Another Crab's Treasure, the second offering from indie Australian studio Aggro Crab, is full of truth and jokes – and something else, something rarer, too. Another Crab's Treasure is ostensibly a combat-oriented adventure game, in which you play a tiny hermit crab whose shell has been stolen. You must explore the depths of the ocean to find a way to retrieve it from the Loan Shark, so you can return the wee crab to his peaceful life in the tide pools on the shore.

Geospatial data has been transformative for the monitoring of the Earth, yet, as in the case of (geo)physical monitoring, the measurements can have variable spatial and temporal sampling and may be associated with a significant level of perturbations degrading the signal quality. Denoising geospatial data is, therefore, essential, yet often challenging because the observations may comprise noise coming from different origins, including both environmental signals and instrumental artifacts, which are spatially and temporally correlated, thus hard to disentangle. This study addresses the denoising of multivariate time series acquired by irregularly distributed networks of sensors, requiring specific methods to handle the spatiotemporal correlation of the noise and the signal of interest. Specifically, our method focuses on the denoising of geodetic position time series, used to monitor ground displacement worldwide with centimeter- to-millimeter precision. Among the signals affecting GNSS data, slow slip events (SSEs) are of interest to seismologists. These are transients of deformation that are weakly emerging compared to other signals. Here, we design SSEdenoiser, a multi-station spatiotemporal graph-based attentive denoiser that learns latent characteristics of GNSS noise to reveal SSE-related displacement with sub-millimeter precision. It is based on the key combination of graph recurrent networks and spatiotemporal Transformers. The proposed method is applied to the Cascadia subduction zone, where SSEs occur along with bursts of tectonic tremors, a seismic rumbling identified from independent seismic recordings. The extracted events match the spatiotemporal evolution of tremors. This good space-time correlation of the denoised GNSS signals with the tremors validates the proposed denoising procedure.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have gained considerable interest in diverse engineering domains thanks to their capacity to integrate physical laws into deep learning models. Recently, geometry-aware PINN-based approaches that employ the strong form of underlying physical system equations have been developed with the aim of integrating geometric information into PINNs. Despite ongoing research, the assessment of PINNs in problems with various geometries remains an active area of investigation. In this work, we introduce a novel physics-informed framework named the Geometry-Aware Deep Energy Method (GADEM) for solving structural mechanics problems on different geometries. As the weak form of the physical system equation (or the energy-based approach) has demonstrated clear advantages compared to the strong form for solving solid mechanics problems, GADEM employs the weak form and aims to infer the solution on multiple shapes of geometries. Integrating a geometry-aware framework into an energy-based method results in an effective physics-informed deep learning model in terms of accuracy and computational cost. Different ways to represent the geometric information and to encode the geometric latent vectors are investigated in this work. We introduce a loss function of GADEM which is minimized based on the potential energy of all considered geometries. An adaptive learning method is also employed for the sampling of collocation points to enhance the performance of GADEM. We present some applications of GADEM to solve solid mechanics problems, including a loading simulation of a toy tire involving contact mechanics and large deformation hyperelasticity. The numerical results of this work demonstrate the remarkable capability of GADEM to infer the solution on various and new shapes of geometries using only one trained model.

In complex traffic environments, autonomous vehicles face multi-modal uncertainty about other agents' future behavior. To address this, recent advancements in learningbased motion predictors output multi-modal predictions. We present our novel framework that leverages Branch Model Predictive Control(BMPC) to account for these predictions. The framework includes an online scenario-selection process guided by topology and collision risk criteria. This efficiently selects a minimal set of predictions, rendering the BMPC realtime capable. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive decision postponing strategy that delays the planner's commitment to a single scenario until the uncertainty is resolved. Our comprehensive evaluations in traffic intersection and random highway merging scenarios demonstrate enhanced comfort and safety through our method.

This review article highlights state-of-the-art data-driven techniques to discover, encode, surrogate, or emulate constitutive laws that describe the path-independent and path-dependent response of solids. Our objective is to provide an organized taxonomy to a large spectrum of methodologies developed in the past decades and to discuss the benefits and drawbacks of the various techniques for interpreting and forecasting mechanics behavior across different scales. Distinguishing between machine-learning-based and model-free methods, we further categorize approaches based on their interpretability and on their learning process/type of required data, while discussing the key problems of generalization and trustworthiness. We attempt to provide a road map of how these can be reconciled in a data-availability-aware context. We also touch upon relevant aspects such as data sampling techniques, design of experiments, verification, and validation.

Drill string communications are important for drilling efficiency and safety. The design of a low latency drill string communication system with high throughput and reliability remains an open challenge. In this paper a deep learning autoencoder (AE) based end-to-end communication system, where transmitter and receiver implemented as feed forward neural networks, is proposed for acousticdrill string communications. Simulation shows that the AE system is able to outperform a baseline non-contiguous OFDM system in terms of BER and PAPR, operating with lower latency.

Neural network interatomic potentials (NNPs) have recently proven to be powerful tools to accurately model complex molecular systems while bypassing the high numerical cost of ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations. In recent years, numerous advances in model architectures as well as the development of hybrid models combining machine-learning (ML) with more traditional, physically-motivated, force-field interactions have considerably increased the design space of ML potentials. In this paper, we present FeNNol, a new library for building, training and running force-field-enhanced neural network potentials. It provides a flexible and modular system for building hybrid models, allowing to easily combine state-of-the-art embeddings with ML-parameterized physical interaction terms without the need for explicit programming. Furthermore, FeNNol leverages the automatic differentiation and just-in-time compilation features of the Jax Python library to enable fast evaluation of NNPs, shrinking the performance gap between ML potentials and standard force-fields. This is demonstrated with the popular ANI-2x model reaching simulation speeds nearly on par with the AMOEBA polarizable force-field on commodity GPUs (GPU=Graphics processing unit). We hope that FeNNol will facilitate the development and application of new hybrid NNP architectures for a wide range of molecular simulation problems.