Energy
EWMoE: An effective model for global weather forecasting with mixture-of-experts
Gan, Lihao, Man, Xin, Zhang, Chenghong, Shao, Jie
Weather forecasting is the analysis of past and present weather observations, as well as the use of modern science and technology, to predict the state of the Earth atmosphere in the future. It is one of the most important applications of scientific computing and plays a crucial role in key sectors such as transportation, logistics, agriculture, and energy production [1]. Traditionally, atmospheric scientists have relied on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods [2, 3], which utilize mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to forecast the weather states based on current weather conditions. While modern meteorological forecasting systems have achieved satisfactory results using NWP methods, these methods largely rely on parametric numerical models, which can introduce errors in the parameterization [4] of complex, unresolved processes. Additionally, NWP methods face challenges in meeting the diverse needs of weather forecasting due to its high computational cost, the difficulty of solving nonlinear physical processes, and model deviations [5, 6]. To address the above issues of NWP models, researchers have turned their attention to data-driven weather forecasting based on deep learning methods. These methods run very quickly and can easily achieve a balance among model complexity, prediction resolution, and prediction accuracy [7-9]. Denby [10] first employed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for the classification of weather satellite images.
Deploying Graph Neural Networks in Wireless Networks: A Link Stability Viewpoint
Li, Jun, Zhang, Weiwei, Wei, Kang, Chen, Guangji, Shi, Long, Chen, Wen
As an emerging artificial intelligence technology, graph neural networks (GNNs) have exhibited promising performance across a wide range of graph-related applications. However, information exchanges among neighbor nodes in GNN pose new challenges in the resource-constrained scenario, especially in wireless systems. In practical wireless systems, the communication links among nodes are usually unreliable due to wireless fading and receiver noise, consequently resulting in performance degradation of GNNs. To improve the learning performance of GNNs, we aim to maximize the number of long-term average (LTA) communication links by the optimized power control under energy consumption constraints. Using the Lyapunov optimization method, we first transform the intractable long-term problem into a deterministic problem in each time slot by converting the long-term energy constraints into the objective function. In spite of this non-convex combinatorial optimization problem, we address this problem via equivalently solving a sequence of convex feasibility problems together with a greedy based solver. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed scheme over the baselines.
Scalable Exact Verification of Optimization Proxies for Large-Scale Optimal Power Flow
Nellikkath, Rahul, Tanneau, Mathieu, Van Hentenryck, Pascal, Chatzivasileiadis, Spyros
Optimal Power Flow (OPF) is a valuable tool for power system operators, but it is a difficult problem to solve for large systems. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, especially Neural Networks-based (NN) optimization proxies, have emerged as a promising new tool for solving OPF, by estimating the OPF solution much faster than traditional methods. However, these ML algorithms act as black boxes, and it is hard to assess their worst-case performance across the entire range of possible inputs than an OPF can have. Previous work has proposed a mixed-integer programming-based methodology to quantify the worst-case violations caused by a NN trained to estimate the OPF solution, throughout the entire input domain. This approach, however, does not scale well to large power systems and more complex NN models. This paper addresses these issues by proposing a scalable algorithm to compute worst-case violations of NN proxies used for approximating large power systems within a reasonable time limit. This will help build trust in ML models to be deployed in large industry-scale power grids.
The Silicon Ceiling: Auditing GPT's Race and Gender Biases in Hiring
Armstrong, Lena, Liu, Abbey, MacNeil, Stephen, Metaxa, Danaë
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being introduced in workplace settings, with the goals of improving efficiency and fairness. However, concerns have arisen regarding these models' potential to reflect or exacerbate social biases and stereotypes. This study explores the potential impact of LLMs on hiring practices. To do so, we conduct an algorithm audit of race and gender biases in one commonly-used LLM, OpenAI's GPT-3.5, taking inspiration from the history of traditional offline resume audits. We conduct two studies using names with varied race and gender connotations: resume assessment (Study 1) and resume generation (Study 2). In Study 1, we ask GPT to score resumes with 32 different names (4 names for each combination of the 2 gender and 4 racial groups) and two anonymous options across 10 occupations and 3 evaluation tasks (overall rating, willingness to interview, and hireability). We find that the model reflects some biases based on stereotypes. In Study 2, we prompt GPT to create resumes (10 for each name) for fictitious job candidates. When generating resumes, GPT reveals underlying biases; women's resumes had occupations with less experience, while Asian and Hispanic resumes had immigrant markers, such as non-native English and non-U.S. education and work experiences. Our findings contribute to a growing body of literature on LLM biases, in particular when used in workplace contexts.
ReefGlider: A highly maneuverable vectored buoyancy engine based underwater robot
Macauley, Kevin, Cai, Levi, Adamczyk, Peter, Girdhar, Yogesh
There exists a capability gap in the design of currently available autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV). Most AUVs use a set of thrusters, and optionally control surfaces, to control their depth and pose. AUVs utilizing thrusters can be highly maneuverable, making them well-suited to operate in complex environments such as in close-proximity to coral reefs. However, they are inherently power-inefficient and produce significant noise and disturbance. Underwater gliders, on the other hand, use changes in buoyancy and center of mass, in combination with a control surface to move around. They are extremely power efficient but not very maneuverable. Gliders are designed for long-range missions that do not require precision maneuvering. Furthermore, since gliders only activate the buoyancy engine for small time intervals, they do not disturb the environment and can also be used for passive acoustic observations. In this paper we present ReefGlider, a novel AUV that uses only buoyancy for control but is still highly maneuverable from additional buoyancy control devices. ReefGlider bridges the gap between the capabilities of thruster-driven AUVs and gliders. These combined characteristics make ReefGlider ideal for tasks such as long-term visual and acoustic monitoring of coral reefs. We present the overall design and implementation of the system, as well as provide analysis of some of its capabilities.
Neural Network Learning of Black-Scholes Equation for Option Pricing
Santos, Daniel de Souza, Ferreira, Tiago Alessandro Espinola
One of the most discussed problems in the financial world is stock option pricing. The Black-Scholes Equation is a Parabolic Partial Differential Equation which provides an option pricing model. The present work proposes an approach based on Neural Networks to solve the Black-Scholes Equations. Real-world data from the stock options market were used as the initial boundary to solve the Black-Scholes Equation. In particular, times series of call options prices of Brazilian companies Petrobras and Vale were employed. The results indicate that the network can learn to solve the Black-Sholes Equation for a specific real-world stock options time series. The experimental results showed that the Neural network option pricing based on the Black-Sholes Equation solution can reach an option pricing forecasting more accurate than the traditional Black-Sholes analytical solutions. The experimental results making it possible to use this methodology to make short-term call option price forecasts in options markets.
A Flow-Based Model for Conditional and Probabilistic Electricity Consumption Profile Generation and Prediction
Xia, Weijie, Wang, Chenguang, Palensky, Peter, Vergara, Pedro P.
Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, especially as diverse low-carbon technologies (e.g., photovoltaic and electric vehicles) are increasingly adopted. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it demonstrates superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical models, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.
Composite Distributed Learning and Synchronization of Nonlinear Multi-Agent Systems with Complete Uncertain Dynamics
Jandaghi, Emadodin, Stein, Dalton L., Hoburg, Adam, Stegagno, Paolo, Zhou, Mingxi, Yuan, Chengzhi
This paper addresses the problem of composite synchronization and learning control in a network of multi-agent robotic manipulator systems with heterogeneous nonlinear uncertainties under a leader-follower framework. A novel two-layer distributed adaptive learning control strategy is introduced, comprising a first-layer distributed cooperative estimator and a second-layer decentralized deterministic learning controller. The first layer is to facilitate each robotic agent's estimation of the leader's information. The second layer is responsible for both controlling individual robot agents to track desired reference trajectories and accurately identifying/learning their nonlinear uncertain dynamics. The proposed distributed learning control scheme represents an advancement in the existing literature due to its ability to manage robotic agents with completely uncertain dynamics including uncertain mass matrices. This allows the robotic control to be environment-independent which can be used in various settings, from underwater to space where identifying system dynamics parameters is challenging. The stability and parameter convergence of the closed-loop system are rigorously analyzed using the Lyapunov method. Numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.
Unifying Simulation and Inference with Normalizing Flows
Du, Haoxing, Krause, Claudius, Mikuni, Vinicius, Nachman, Benjamin, Pang, Ian, Shih, David
There have been many applications of deep neural networks to detector calibrations and a growing number of studies that propose deep generative models as automated fast detector simulators. We show that these two tasks can be unified by using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) from conditional generative models for energy regression. Unlike direct regression techniques, the MLE approach is prior-independent and non-Gaussian resolutions can be determined from the shape of the likelihood near the maximum. Using an ATLAS-like calorimeter simulation, we demonstrate this concept in the context of calorimeter energy calibration.
A score-based particle method for homogeneous Landau equation
The Landau equation stands as one of the fundamental kinetic equations, modeling the evolution of charged particles undergoing Coulomb interaction [27]. It is particularly useful for plasmas where collision effects become non-negligible. Computing the Landau equation presents numerous challenges inherent in kinetic equations, including high dimensionality, multiple scales, and strong nonlinearity and non-locality. On the other hand, deep learning has progressively transformed the numerical computation of partial differential equations by leveraging neural networks' ability to approximate complex functions and the powerful optimization toolbox. However, straightforward application of deep learning to compute PDEs often encounters training difficulties and leads to a loss of physical fidelity. In this paper, we propose a score-based particle method that elegantly combines learning with structure-preserving particle methods. This method inherits the favorable conservative properties of deterministic particle methods while relying only on light training to dynamically obtain the score function over time. The learning component replaces the expensive density estimation in previous particle methods, drastically accelerating computation.