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A critical appraisal of water table depth estimation: Challenges and opportunities within machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fine-resolution spatial patterns of water table depth (WTD) play a crucial role in shaping ecological resilience, hydrological connectivity, and anthropocentric objectives. Generally, a large-scale (e.g., continental or global) spatial map of static WTD can be simulated using either physically-based (PB) or machine learning-based (ML) models. We construct three fine-resolution (500 m) ML simulations of WTD, using the XGBoost algorithm and more than 20 million real and proxy observations of WTD, across the United States and Canada. The three ML models were constrained using known physical relations between WTD's drivers and WTD and were trained by sequentially adding real and proxy observations of WTD. We interpret the black box of our physically constrained ML models and compare it against available literature in groundwater hydrology. Through an extensive (pixel-by-pixel) evaluation, we demonstrate that our models can more accurately predict unseen real and proxy observations of WTD across most of North America's ecoregions compared to three available PB simulations of WTD. However, we still argue that large-scale WTD estimation is far from being a solved problem. We reason that due to biased observational data mainly collected from low-elevation floodplains, the misspecification of equations within physically-based models, and the over-flexibility of machine learning models, verifiably accurate simulations of WTD do not yet exist. Ultimately, we thoroughly discuss future directions that may help hydrogeologists decide how to proceed with WTD estimations, with a particular focus on the application of machine learning and the use of proxy satellite data.


Symmetric Matrix Completion with ReLU Sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of symmetric positive semi-definite low-rank matrix completion (MC) with deterministic entry-dependent sampling. In particular, we consider rectified linear unit (ReLU) sampling, where only positive entries are observed, as well as a generalization to threshold-based sampling. We first empirically demonstrate that the landscape of this MC problem is not globally benign: Gradient descent (GD) with random initialization will generally converge to stationary points that are not globally optimal. Nevertheless, we prove that when the matrix factor with a small rank satisfies mild assumptions, the nonconvex objective function is geodesically strongly convex on the quotient manifold in a neighborhood of a planted low-rank matrix. Moreover, we show that our assumptions are satisfied by a matrix factor with i.i.d. Gaussian entries. Finally, we develop a tailor-designed initialization for GD to solve our studied formulation, which empirically always achieves convergence to the global minima. We also conduct extensive experiments and compare MC methods, investigating convergence and completion performance with respect to initialization, noise level, dimension, and rank.


BD-SAT: High-resolution Land Use Land Cover Dataset & Benchmark Results for Developing Division: Dhaka, BD

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) analysis on satellite images using deep learning-based methods is significantly helpful in understanding the geography, socio-economic conditions, poverty levels, and urban sprawl in developing countries. Recent works involve segmentation with LULC classes such as farmland, built-up areas, forests, meadows, water bodies, etc. Training deep learning methods on satellite images requires large sets of images annotated with LULC classes. However, annotated data for developing countries are scarce due to a lack of funding, absence of dedicated residential/industrial/economic zones, a large population, and diverse building materials. BD-SAT provides a high-resolution dataset that includes pixel-by-pixel LULC annotations for Dhaka metropolitan city and surrounding rural/urban areas. Using a strict and standardized procedure, the ground truth is created using Bing satellite imagery with a ground spatial distance of 2.22 meters per pixel. A three-stage, well-defined annotation process has been followed with support from GIS experts to ensure the reliability of the annotations. We performed several experiments to establish benchmark results. The results show that the annotated BD-SAT is sufficient to train large deep learning models with adequate accuracy for five major LULC classes: forest, farmland, built-up areas, water bodies, and meadows.


Investigation of the Impact of Economic and Social Factors on Energy Demand through Natural Language Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

These authors contributed equally to this work. Abstract The relationship between energy demand and variables such as economic activity and weather is well established. However, this paper aims to explore the connection between energy demand and other social aspects, which receive little attention. Through the use of natural language processing on a large news corpus, we shed light on this important link. This study was carried out in five regions of the UK and Ireland and considers multiple horizons from 1 to 30 days. It also considers economic variables such as GDP, unemployment and inflation. We found that: 1) News about military conflicts, transportation, the global pandemic, regional economics, and the international energy market are related to electricity demand. Electricity demand modelling is a fundamental process in power system planning, operation, and energy trading [1]. In order to avoid additional carbon emissions from excess electricity generation and the high costs of electricity storage, electricity demand and supply should be matched over time [2]. Demand forecasting has become a means of enabling power dispatch, planning generation schedules, and integrating renewable energy sources [3]. Electricity demand forecasting is linked to various factors, including weather, economic activity, and major events.


Methodology and Real-World Applications of Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Clinical Diagnosis with Explainability and Invariance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-aided clinical diagnosis is desired in medical care. Existing deep learning models lack explainability and mainly focus on image analysis. The recently developed Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) approach is causality-driven, explainable, and invariant across different application scenarios, without problems of data collection, labeling, fitting, privacy, bias, generalization, high cost and high energy consumption. Through close collaboration between clinical experts and DUCG technicians, 46 DUCG models covering 54 chief complaints were constructed. Over 1,000 diseases can be diagnosed without triage. Before being applied in real-world, the 46 DUCG models were retrospectively verified by third-party hospitals. The verified diagnostic precisions were no less than 95%, in which the diagnostic precision for every disease including uncommon ones was no less than 80%. After verifications, the 46 DUCG models were applied in the real-world in China. Over one million real diagnosis cases have been performed, with only 17 incorrect diagnoses identified. Due to DUCG's transparency, the mistakes causing the incorrect diagnoses were found and corrected. The diagnostic abilities of the clinicians who applied DUCG frequently were improved significantly. Following the introduction to the earlier presented DUCG methodology, the recommendation algorithm for potential medical checks is presented and the key idea of DUCG is extracted.


Few-Shot Load Forecasting Under Data Scarcity in Smart Grids: A Meta-Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the rapid expansion of smart grids and large volumes of data at the individual consumer level, there are still various cases where adequate data collection to train accurate load forecasting models is challenging or even impossible. This paper proposes adapting an established model-agnostic meta-learning algorithm for short-term load forecasting in the context of few-shot learning. Specifically, the proposed method can rapidly adapt and generalize within any unknown load time series of arbitrary length using only minimal training samples. In this context, the meta-learning model learns an optimal set of initial parameters for a base-level learner recurrent neural network. The proposed model is evaluated using a dataset of historical load consumption data from real-world consumers. Despite the examined load series' short length, it produces accurate forecasts outperforming transfer learning and task-specific machine learning methods by $12.5\%$. To enhance robustness and fairness during model evaluation, a novel metric, mean average log percentage error, is proposed that alleviates the bias introduced by the commonly used MAPE metric. Finally, a series of studies to evaluate the model's robustness under different hyperparameters and time series lengths is also conducted, demonstrating that the proposed approach consistently outperforms all other models.


The BiGGen Bench: A Principled Benchmark for Fine-grained Evaluation of Language Models with Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As language models (LMs) become capable of handling a wide range of tasks, their evaluation is becoming as challenging as their development. Most generation benchmarks currently assess LMs using abstract evaluation criteria like helpfulness and harmlessness, which often lack the flexibility and granularity of human assessment. Additionally, these benchmarks tend to focus disproportionately on specific capabilities such as instruction following, leading to coverage bias. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the BiGGen Bench, a principled generation benchmark designed to thoroughly evaluate nine distinct capabilities of LMs across 77 diverse tasks. A key feature of the BiGGen Bench is its use of instance-specific evaluation criteria, closely mirroring the nuanced discernment of human evaluation. We apply this benchmark to assess 103 frontier LMs using five evaluator LMs. Our code, data, and evaluation results are all publicly available at https://github.com/prometheus-eval/prometheus-eval/tree/main/BiGGen-Bench.


Gentle-CLIP: Exploring Aligned Semantic In Low-Quality Multimodal Data With Soft Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal fusion breaks through the barriers between diverse modalities and has already yielded numerous impressive performances. However, in various specialized fields, it is struggling to obtain sufficient alignment data for the training process, which seriously limits the use of previously elegant models. Thus, semi-supervised learning attempts to achieve multimodal alignment with fewer matched pairs but traditional methods like pseudo-labeling are difficult to apply in domains with no label information. To address these problems, we transform semi-supervised multimodal alignment into a manifold matching problem and propose a new method based on CLIP, named Gentle-CLIP. Specifically, we design a novel semantic density distribution loss to explore implicit semantic alignment information from unpaired multimodal data by constraining the latent representation distribution with fine granularity, thus eliminating the need for numerous strictly matched pairs. Meanwhile, we introduce multi-kernel maximum mean discrepancy as well as self-supervised contrastive loss to pull separate modality distributions closer and enhance the stability of the representation distribution. In addition, the contrastive loss used in CLIP is employed on the supervised matched data to prevent negative optimization. Extensive experiments conducted on a range of tasks in various fields, including protein, remote sensing, and the general vision-language field, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Gentle-CLIP.


What is my quantum computer good for? Quantum capability learning with physics-aware neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize diverse fields, including quantum chemistry, materials science, and machine learning. However, contemporary quantum computers experience errors that often cause quantum programs run on them to fail. Until quantum computers can reliably execute large quantum programs, stakeholders will need fast and reliable methods for assessing a quantum computer's capability-i.e., the programs it can run and how well it can run them. Previously, off-the-shelf neural network architectures have been used to model quantum computers' capabilities, but with limited success, because these networks fail to learn the complex quantum physics that determines real quantum computers' errors. We address this shortcoming with a new quantum-physics-aware neural network architecture for learning capability models. Our architecture combines aspects of graph neural networks with efficient approximations to the physics of errors in quantum programs. This approach achieves up to $\sim50\%$ reductions in mean absolute error on both experimental and simulated data, over state-of-the-art models based on convolutional neural networks.


Generalist Multimodal AI: A Review of Architectures, Challenges and Opportunities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal models are expected to be a critical component to future advances in artificial intelligence. This field is starting to grow rapidly with a surge of new design elements motivated by the success of foundation models in natural language processing (NLP) and vision. It is widely hoped that further extending the foundation models to multiple modalities (e.g., text, image, video, sensor, time series, graph, etc.) will ultimately lead to generalist multimodal models, i.e. one model across different data modalities and tasks. However, there is little research that systematically analyzes recent multimodal models (particularly the ones that work beyond text and vision) with respect to the underling architecture proposed. Therefore, this work provides a fresh perspective on generalist multimodal models (GMMs) via a novel architecture and training configuration specific taxonomy. This includes factors such as Unifiability, Modularity, and Adaptability that are pertinent and essential to the wide adoption and application of GMMs. The review further highlights key challenges and prospects for the field and guide the researchers into the new advancements.