Score-based diffusion models have recently emerged as state-of-the-art generative models for a variety of data modalities. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how to adapt these models to generate long multivariate time series. Viewing a time series as the discretization of an underlying continuous process, we introduce SigDiffusion, a novel diffusion model operating on log-signature embeddings of the data. The forward and backward processes gradually perturb and denoise log-signatures preserving their algebraic structure. To recover a signal from its log-signature, we provide new closed-form inversion formulae expressing the coefficients obtained by expanding the signal in a given basis (e.g. Fourier or orthogonal polynomials) as explicit polynomial functions of the log-signature. Finally, we show that combining SigDiffusion with these inversion formulae results in highly realistic time series generation, competitive with the current state-of-the-art on various datasets of synthetic and real-world examples.

This paper presents a novel approach to extract scientifically valuable information about Earth's physical phenomena from unconventional sources, such as multi-modal social media posts. Employing a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM), Gemini 1.5 Pro (Reid et al. 2024), we estimate earthquake ground shaking intensity from these unstructured posts. The model's output, in the form of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values, aligns well with independent observational data. Furthermore, our results suggest that LLMs, trained on vast internet data, may have developed a unique understanding of physical phenomena. Specifically, Google's Gemini models demonstrate a simplified understanding of the general relationship between earthquake magnitude, distance, and MMI intensity, accurately describing observational data even though it's not identical to established models. These findings raise intriguing questions about the extent to which Gemini's training has led to a broader understanding of the physical world and its phenomena. The ability of Generative AI models like Gemini to generate results consistent with established scientific knowledge highlights their potential to augment our understanding of complex physical phenomena like earthquakes. The flexible and effective approach proposed in this study holds immense potential for enriching our understanding of the impact of physical phenomena and improving resilience during natural disasters. This research is a significant step toward harnessing the power of social media and AI for natural disaster mitigation, opening new avenues for understanding the emerging capabilities of Generative AI and LLMs for scientific applications.

A nonlinear-dynamical algorithm for city planning is proposed as an Impulse Pattern Formulation (IPF) for predicting relevant parameters like health, artistic freedom, or financial developments of different social or political stakeholders over the cause of a planning process. The IPF has already shown high predictive precision at low computational cost in musical instrument simulations, brain dynamics, and human-human interactions. The social and political IPF consists of three basic equations of system state developments, self-adaptation of stakeholders, two adaptive interactions, and external impact terms suitable for respective planning situations. Typical scenarios of stakeholder interactions and developments are modeled by adjusting a set of system parameters. These include stakeholder reaction to external input, enhanced system stability through self-adaptation, stakeholder convergence due to adaptive interaction, as well as complex dynamics in terms of fixed stakeholder impacts. A workflow for implementing the algorithm in real city planning scenarios is outlined. This workflow includes machine learning of a suitable set of parameters suggesting best-practice planning to aim at the desired development of the planning process and its output.

Leveraging human preferences for steering the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) has demonstrated notable success in recent years. Nonetheless, data selection and labeling are still a bottleneck for these systems, particularly at large scale. Hence, selecting the most informative points for acquiring human feedback may considerably reduce the cost of preference labeling and unleash the further development of LLMs. Bayesian Active Learning provides a principled framework for addressing this challenge and has demonstrated remarkable success in diverse settings. However, previous attempts to employ it for Preference Modeling did not meet such expectations. In this work, we identify that naive epistemic uncertainty estimation leads to the acquisition of redundant samples. We address this by proposing the Bayesian Active Learner for Preference Modeling (BAL-PM), a novel stochastic acquisition policy that not only targets points of high epistemic uncertainty according to the preference model but also seeks to maximize the entropy of the acquired prompt distribution in the feature space spanned by the employed LLM. Notably, our experiments demonstrate that BAL-PM requires 33% to 68% fewer preference labels in two popular human preference datasets and exceeds previous stochastic Bayesian acquisition policies.

To develop rigorous knowledge about ML models -- and the systems in which they are embedded -- we need reliable measurements. But reliable measurement is fundamentally challenging, and touches on issues of reproducibility, scalability, uncertainty quantification, epistemology, and more. This dissertation addresses criteria needed to take reliability seriously: both criteria for designing meaningful metrics, and for methodologies that ensure that we can dependably and efficiently measure these metrics at scale and in practice. In doing so, this dissertation articulates a research vision for a new field of scholarship at the intersection of machine learning, law, and policy. Within this frame, we cover topics that fit under three different themes: (1) quantifying and mitigating sources of arbitrariness in ML, (2) taming randomness in uncertainty estimation and optimization algorithms, in order to achieve scalability without sacrificing reliability, and (3) providing methods for evaluating generative-AI systems, with specific focuses on quantifying memorization in language models and training latent diffusion models on open-licensed data. By making contributions in these three themes, this dissertation serves as an empirical proof by example that research on reliable measurement for machine learning is intimately and inescapably bound up with research in law and policy. These different disciplines pose similar research questions about reliable measurement in machine learning. They are, in fact, two complementary sides of the same research vision, which, broadly construed, aims to construct machine-learning systems that cohere with broader societal values.

Effectively learning from sequential data is a longstanding goal of Artificial Intelligence, especially in the case of long sequences. From the dawn of Machine Learning, several researchers engaged in the search of algorithms and architectures capable of processing sequences of patterns, retaining information about the past inputs while still leveraging the upcoming data, without losing precious long-term dependencies and correlations. While such an ultimate goal is inspired by the human hallmark of continuous real-time processing of sensory information, several solutions simplified the learning paradigm by artificially limiting the processed context or dealing with sequences of limited length, given in advance. These solutions were further emphasized by the large ubiquity of Transformers, that have initially shaded the role of Recurrent Neural Nets. However, recurrent networks are facing a strong recent revival due to the growing popularity of (deep) State-Space models and novel instances of large-context Transformers, which are both based on recurrent computations to go beyond several limits of currently ubiquitous technologies. In fact, the fast development of Large Language Models enhanced the interest in efficient solutions to process data over time. This survey provides an in-depth summary of the latest approaches that are based on recurrent models for sequential data processing. A complete taxonomy over the latest trends in architectural and algorithmic solutions is reported and discussed, guiding researchers in this appealing research field. The emerging picture suggests that there is room for thinking of novel routes, constituted by learning algorithms which depart from the standard Backpropagation Through Time, towards a more realistic scenario where patterns are effectively processed online, leveraging local-forward computations, opening to further research on this topic.

Due to the increasing share of renewables, the analysis of the dynamical behavior of power grids gains importance. Effective risk assessments necessitate the analysis of large number of fault scenarios. The computational costs inherent in dynamic simulations impose constraints on the number of configurations that can be analyzed. Machine Learning (ML) has proven to efficiently predict complex power grid properties. Hence, we analyze the potential of ML for predicting dynamic stability of future power grids with large shares of inverters. For this purpose, we generate a new dataset consisting of synthetic power grid models and perform dynamical simulations. As targets for the ML training, we calculate the fault-ride-through probability, which we define as the probability of staying within a ride-through curve after a fault at a bus has been cleared. Importantly, we demonstrate that ML models accurately predict the fault-ride-through probability of synthetic power grids. Finally, we also show that the ML models generalize to an IEEE-96 Test System, which emphasizes the potential of deploying ML methods to study probabilistic stability of power grids.

This work presents a large-scale dataset for radar adaptive signal processing (RASP) applications, aimed at supporting the development of data-driven models within the radar community. The dataset, called RASPNet, consists of 100 realistic scenarios compiled over a variety of topographies and land types from across the contiguous United States, designed to reflect a diverse array of real-world environments. Within each scenario, RASPNet consists of 10,000 clutter realizations from an airborne radar setting, which can be utilized for radar algorithm development and evaluation. RASPNet intends to fill a prominent gap in the availability of a large-scale, realistic dataset that standardizes the evaluation of adaptive radar processing techniques. We describe its construction, organization, and several potential applications, which includes a transfer learning example to demonstrate how RASPNet can be leveraged for realistic adaptive radar processing scenarios.

Keyword Spotting (KWS) is essential in edge computing requiring rapid and energy-efficient responses. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are well-suited for KWS for their efficiency and temporal capacity for speech. To further reduce the latency and energy consumption, this study introduces ED-sKWS, an SNN-based KWS model with an early-decision mechanism that can stop speech processing and output the result before the end of speech utterance. Furthermore, we introduce a Cumulative Temporal (CT) loss that can enhance prediction accuracy at both the intermediate and final timesteps. To evaluate early-decision performance, we present the SC-100 dataset including 100 speech commands with beginning and end timestamp annotation. Experiments on the Google Speech Commands v2 and our SC-100 datasets show that ED-sKWS maintains competitive accuracy with 61% timesteps and 52% energy consumption compared to SNN models without early-decision mechanism, ensuring rapid response and energy efficiency.

The increasing complexity of fog computing environments calls for efficient resource optimization techniques. In this paper, we propose and evaluate three distributed designs of a genetic algorithm (GA) for resource optimization in fog computing, within an increasing degree of distribution. The designs leverage the execution of the GA in the fog devices themselves by dealing with the specific features of this domain: constrained resources and widely geographical distribution of the devices. For their evaluation, we implemented a benchmark case using the NSGA-II for the specific problem of optimizing the fog service placement, according to the guidelines of our three distributed designs. These three experimental scenarios were compared with a control case, a traditional centralized version of this GA algorithm, considering solution quality and network overhead. The results show that the design with the lowest distribution degree, which keeps centralized storage of the objective space, achieves comparable solution quality to the traditional approach but incurs a higher network load. The second design, which completely distributes the population between the workers, reduces network overhead but exhibits lower solution diversity while keeping enough good results in terms of optimization objective minimization. Finally, the proposal with a distributed population and that only interchanges solution between the workers' neighbors achieves the lowest network load but with compromised solution quality.