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Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Entropy during the Foggy Winter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy resources. Forecasting photovoltaic power generation is an important way to increase photovoltaic penetration. However, the task of photovoltaic forecasting is complicated due to its property of uncertainty, especially in specific regions during the foggy winter. This paper proposes a novel model to accomplish the problem. A developed entropy is created to qualify the uncertainty during the foggy winter. The clustering method and modified retention network are applied to reduce complexity and forecast, respectively. We adopt an optimization to optimize the hyperparameters. Results are validated from the multivariate forecasting model using the dataset from a photovoltaic power station in Jiangsu Province, China. Experiments show that the proposed model improves the forecasting accuracy compared to various models during the foggy winter.


Optimization of Energy Consumption Forecasting in Puno using Parallel Computing and ARIMA Models: An Innovative Approach to Big Data Processing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This research presents an innovative use of parallel computing with the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model to forecast energy consumption in Peru's Puno region. The study conducts a thorough and multifaceted analysis, focusing on the execution speed, prediction accuracy, and scalability of both sequential and parallel implementations. A significant emphasis is placed on efficiently managing large datasets. The findings demonstrate notable improvements in computational efficiency and data processing capabilities through the parallel approach, all while maintaining the accuracy and integrity of predictions. This new method provides a versatile and reliable solution for real-time predictive analysis and enhances energy resource management, which is particularly crucial for developing areas. In addition to highlighting the technical advantages of parallel computing in this field, the study explores its practical impacts on energy planning and sustainable development in regions like Puno.


A spring-block theory of feature learning in deep neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 306 N Wright St, Urbana, IL 61801, USA (Dated: July 30, 2024) A central question in deep learning is how deep neural networks (DNNs) learn features. This collective effect of non-linearity, noise, learning rate, width, depth, and numerous other parameters, has eluded first-principles theories which are built from microscopic neuronal dynamics. Here we present a noise-non-linearity phase diagram that highlights where shallow or deep layers learn features more effectively. We then propose a macroscopic mechanical theory of feature learning that accurately reproduces this phase diagram, offering a clear intuition for why and how some DNNs are "lazy" and some are "active", and relating the distribution of feature learning over layers with test accuracy. Deep neural networks (DNNs) progressively compute propose a macroscopic theory of feature learning in deep, features from which the final layer generates predictions.


Comprehensive Survey of Complex-Valued Neural Networks: Insights into Backpropagation and Activation Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial neural networks (ANNs), particularly those employing deep learning models, have found widespread application in fields such as computer vision, signal processing, and wireless communications, where complex numbers are crucial. Despite the prevailing use of real-number implementations in current ANN frameworks, there is a growing interest in developing ANNs that utilize complex numbers. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent advancements in complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs), focusing on their activation functions (AFs) and learning algorithms. We delve into the extension of the backpropagation algorithm to the complex domain, which enables the training of neural networks with complex-valued inputs, weights, AFs, and outputs. This survey considers three complex backpropagation algorithms: the complex derivative approach, the partial derivatives approach, and algorithms incorporating the Cauchy-Riemann equations. A significant challenge in CVNN design is the identification of suitable nonlinear Complex Valued Activation Functions (CVAFs), due to the conflict between boundedness and differentiability over the entire complex plane as stated by Liouville's theorem. We examine both fully complex AFs, which strive for boundedness and differentiability, and split AFs, which offer a practical compromise despite not preserving analyticity. This review provides an in-depth analysis of various CVAFs essential for constructing effective CVNNs. Moreover, this survey not only offers a comprehensive overview of the current state of CVNNs but also contributes to ongoing research and development by introducing a new set of CVAFs (fully complex, split and complex amplitude-phase AFs).


Grasping Force Control and Adaptation for a Cable-Driven Robotic Hand

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a unique force control and adaptation algorithm for a lightweight and low-complexity five-fingered robotic hand, namely an Integrated-Finger Robotic Hand (IFRH). The force control and adaptation algorithm is intuitive to design, easy to implement, and improves the grasping functionality through feedforward adaptation automatically. Specifically, we have extended Youla-parameterization which is traditionally used in feedback controller design into a feedforward iterative learning control algorithm (ILC). The uniqueness of such an extension is that both the feedback and feedforward controllers are parameterized over one unified design parameter which can be easily customized based on the desired closed-loop performance. While Youla-parameterization and ILC have been explored in the past on various applications, our unique parameterization and computational methods make the design intuitive and easy to implement. This provides both robust and adaptive learning capabilities, and our application rivals the complexity of many robotic hand control systems. Extensive experimental tests have been conducted to validate the effectiveness of our method.


The Download: AI's math solutions, and brewing beer with sunlight

MIT Technology Review

AI models can easily generate essays and other types of text. However, they're nowhere near as good at solving math problems, which tend to involve logical reasoning--something that's beyond the capabilities of most current AI systems. But that may finally be changing. Google DeepMind says it has trained two specialized AI systems to solve complex math problems involving advanced reasoning. The systems worked together to successfully solve four out of six problems from this year's International Mathematical Olympiad, a prestigious competition for high school students.


Graph Neural Networks for Virtual Sensing in Complex Systems: Addressing Heterogeneous Temporal Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-time condition monitoring is crucial for the reliable and efficient operation of complex systems. However, relying solely on physical sensors can be limited due to their cost, placement constraints, or inability to directly measure certain critical parameters. Virtual sensing addresses these limitations by leveraging readily available sensor data and system knowledge to estimate inaccessible parameters or infer system states. The increasing complexity of industrial systems necessitates deployments of sensors with diverse modalities to provide a comprehensive understanding of system states. These sensors capture data at varying frequencies to monitor both rapid and slowly varying system dynamics, as well as local and global state evolutions of the systems. This leads to heterogeneous temporal dynamics, which, particularly under varying operational end environmental conditions, pose a significant challenge for accurate virtual sensing. To address this, we propose a Heterogeneous Temporal Graph Neural Network (HTGNN) framework. HTGNN explicitly models signals from diverse sensors and integrates operating conditions into the model architecture. We evaluate HTGNN using two newly released datasets: a bearing dataset with diverse load conditions for bearing load prediction and a year-long simulated dataset for predicting bridge live loads. Our results demonstrate that HTGNN significantly outperforms established baseline methods in both tasks, particularly under highly varying operating conditions. These results highlight HTGNN's potential as a robust and accurate virtual sensing approach for complex systems, paving the way for improved monitoring, predictive maintenance, and enhanced system performance.


Online Planning in POMDPs with State-Requests

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In key real-world problems, full state information is sometimes available but only at a high cost, like activating precise yet energy-intensive sensors or consulting humans, thereby compelling the agent to operate under partial observability. For this scenario, we propose AEMS-SR (Anytime Error Minimization Search with State Requests), a principled online planning algorithm tailored for POMDPs with state requests. By representing the search space as a graph instead of a tree, AEMS-SR avoids the exponential growth of the search space originating from state requests. Theoretical analysis demonstrates AEMS-SR's $\varepsilon$-optimality, ensuring solution quality, while empirical evaluations illustrate its effectiveness compared with AEMS and POMCP, two SOTA online planning algorithms. AEMS-SR enables efficient planning in domains characterized by partial observability and costly state requests offering practical benefits across various applications.


Supervised Learning based Method for Condition Monitoring of Overhead Line Insulators using Leakage Current Measurement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As a new practical and economical solution to the aging problem of overhead line (OHL) assets, the technical policies of most power grid companies in the world experienced a gradual transition from scheduled preventive maintenance to a risk-based approach in asset management. Even though the accumulation of contamination is predictable within a certain degree, there are currently no effective ways to identify the risk of the insulator flashover in order to plan its replacement. This paper presents a novel machine learning (ML) based method for estimating the flashover probability of the cup-and-pin glass insulator string. The proposed method is based on the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) supervised ML model, in which the leakage current (LC) features and applied voltage are used as the inputs. The established model can estimate the critical flashover voltage (U50%) for various designs of OHL insulators with different voltage levels. The proposed method is also able to accurately determine the condition of the insulator strings and instruct asset management engineers to take appropriate actions.


Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable Energy: A Survey

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The transition to sustainable energy is a key challenge of our time, requiring modifications in the entire pipeline of energy production, storage, transmission, and consumption. At every stage, new sequential decision-making challenges emerge, ranging from the operation of wind farms to the management of electrical grids or the scheduling of electric vehicle charging stations. All such problems are well suited for reinforcement learning, the branch of machine learning that learns behavior from data. Therefore, numerous studies have explored the use of reinforcement learning for sustainable energy. This paper surveys this literature with the intention of bridging both the underlying research communities: energy and machine learning. After a brief introduction of both fields, we systematically list relevant sustainability challenges, how they can be modeled as a reinforcement learning problem, and what solution approaches currently exist in the literature. Afterwards, we zoom out and identify overarching reinforcement learning themes that appear throughout sustainability, such as multi-agent, offline, and safe reinforcement learning. Lastly, we also cover standardization of environments, which will be crucial for connecting both research fields, and highlight potential directions for future work. In summary, this survey provides an extensive overview of reinforcement learning methods for sustainable energy, which may play a vital role in the energy transition.