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Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires several orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4$\sigma$ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS improves the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.


Sustainable Diffusion-based Incentive Mechanism for Generative AI-driven Digital Twins in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPSs) are an integral component of modern manufacturing and industries. By digitizing data throughout the product life cycle, Digital Twins (DTs) in ICPSs enable a shift from current industrial infrastructures to intelligent and adaptive infrastructures. Thanks to data process capability, Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) can drive the construction and update of DTs to improve predictive accuracy and prepare for diverse smart manufacturing. However, mechanisms that leverage sensing Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices to share data for the construction of DTs are susceptible to adverse selection problems. In this paper, we first develop a GAI-driven DT architecture for ICPSs. To address the adverse selection problem caused by information asymmetry, we propose a contract theory model and develop the sustainable diffusion-based soft actor-critic algorithm to identify the optimal feasible contract. Specifically, we leverage the dynamic structured pruning technique to reduce parameter numbers of actor networks, allowing sustainability and efficient implementation of the proposed algorithm. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.


Coordinating Planning and Tracking in Layered Control Policies via Actor-Critic Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Layered control architectures (Matni et al., 2024; Chiang et al., 2007) are ubiquitous in complex cyber-physical systems, such as power networks, communication networks, and autonomous robots. For example, a typical autonomous robot has an autonomy stack consisting of decision-making, trajectory optimization, and low-level control. However, despite the widespread presence of such layered control architectures, there has been a lack of a principled framework for their design, especially in the data-driven regime. In this work, we propose an algorithm for jointly learning a trajectory planner and a tracking controller. We start from an optimal control problem and show that a suitable relaxation of the problem naturally decomposes into reference generation and trajectory tracking layers. We then propose an algorithm to train a layered policy parameterized in a way that parallels this decomposition using actor-critic methods. Different from previous methods, we show how a dual network can be trained to coordinate the trajectory optimizer and the tracking controller. Our theoretical analysis and numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can achieve good performance in various settings while enjoying inherent interpretability and modularity.


Taro Kono softens line against nuclear power ahead of LDP leadership race

The Japan Times

Taro Kono, Japan's digital transformation minister, has said he now believes that the country should facilitate the restart of idled nuclear power plants and promote research into nuclear fusion, in the face of a predicted rise in electricity demand. His remarks, made Wednesday, mark a further shift from Kono's initial position of seeking no nuclear plants in the country. He apparently hopes to gain broad support within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of its upcoming leadership election, expected in September. Kono has already told LDP Vice President Taro Aso, head of an intraparty faction Kono belongs to, of his eagerness to run in the party's leadership race. However, his anti-nuclear stance has been criticized by veteran members of the Aso faction.


The Energy Cost of Artificial Intelligence of Things Lifecycle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI)coupled with existing Internet of Things (IoT) enables more streamlined and autonomous operations across various economic sectors. Consequently, the paradigm of Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) having AI techniques at its core implies additional energy and carbon costs that may become significant with more complex neural architectures. To better understand the energy and Carbon Footprint (CF) of some AIoT components, very recent studies employ conventional metrics. However, these metrics are not designed to capture energy efficiency aspects of inference. In this paper, we propose a new metric, the Energy Cost of AIoT Lifecycle (eCAL) to capture the overall energy cost of inference over the lifecycle of an AIoT system. We devise a new methodology for determining eCAL of an AIoT system by analyzing the complexity of data manipulation in individual components involved in the AIoT lifecycle and derive the overall and per bit energy consumption. With eCAL we show that the better a model is and the more it is used, the more energy efficient an inference is. For an example AIoT configuration, eCAL for making $100$ inferences is $1.43$ times higher than for $1000$ inferences. We also evaluate the CF of the AIoT system by calculating the equivalent CO$_{2}$ emissions based on the energy consumption and the Carbon Intensity (CI) across different countries. Using 2023 renewable data, our analysis reveals that deploying an AIoT system in Germany results in emitting $4.62$ times higher CO$_2$ than in Finland, due to latter using more low-CI energy sources.


Low-Power Vibration-Based Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0 using Neural Networks: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advancements in smart sensors for Industry 4.0 offer ample opportunities for low-powered predictive maintenance and condition monitoring. However, traditional approaches in this field rely on processing in the cloud, which incurs high costs in energy and storage. This paper investigates the potential of neural networks for low-power on-device computation of vibration sensor data for predictive maintenance. We review the literature on Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) and Artificial Neuronal Networks (ANNs) for vibration-based predictive maintenance by analyzing datasets, data preprocessing, network architectures, and hardware implementations. Our findings suggest that no satisfactory standard benchmark dataset exists for evaluating neural networks in predictive maintenance tasks. Furthermore frequency domain transformations are commonly employed for preprocessing. SNNs mainly use shallow feed forward architectures, whereas ANNs explore a wider range of models and deeper networks. Finally, we highlight the need for future research on hardware implementations of neural networks for low-power predictive maintenance applications and the development of a standardized benchmark dataset.


Enabling High Data Throughput Reinforcement Learning on GPUs: A Domain Agnostic Framework for Data-Driven Scientific Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce WarpSci, a domain agnostic framework designed to overcome crucial system bottlenecks encountered in the application of reinforcement learning to intricate environments with vast datasets featuring high-dimensional observation or action spaces. Notably, our framework eliminates the need for data transfer between the CPU and GPU, enabling the concurrent execution of thousands of simulations on a single or multiple GPUs. This high data throughput architecture proves particularly advantageous for data-driven scientific research, where intricate environment models are commonly essential.


AutoPV: Automatically Design Your Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Photovoltaic power forecasting (PVPF) is a critical area in time series forecasting (TSF), enabling the efficient utilization of solar energy. With advancements in machine learning and deep learning, various models have been applied to PVPF tasks. However, constructing an optimal predictive architecture for specific PVPF tasks remains challenging, as it requires cross-domain knowledge and significant labor costs. To address this challenge, we introduce AutoPV, a novel framework for the automated search and construction of PVPF models based on neural architecture search (NAS) technology. We develop a brand new NAS search space that incorporates various data processing techniques from state-of-the-art (SOTA) TSF models and typical PVPF deep learning models. The effectiveness of AutoPV is evaluated on diverse PVPF tasks using a dataset from the Daqing Photovoltaic Station in China. Experimental results demonstrate that AutoPV can complete the predictive architecture construction process in a relatively short time, and the newly constructed architecture is superior to SOTA predefined models. This work bridges the gap in applying NAS to TSF problems, assisting non-experts and industries in automatically designing effective PVPF models.


DynamoLLM: Designing LLM Inference Clusters for Performance and Energy Efficiency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid evolution and widespread adoption of generative large language models (LLMs) have made them a pivotal workload in various applications. Today, LLM inference clusters receive a large number of queries with strict Service Level Objectives (SLOs). To achieve the desired performance, these models execute on power-hungry GPUs causing the inference clusters to consume large amount of energy and, consequently, result in excessive carbon emissions. Fortunately, we find that there is a great opportunity to exploit the heterogeneity in inference compute properties and fluctuations in inference workloads, to significantly improve energy-efficiency. However, such a diverse and dynamic environment creates a large search-space where different system configurations (e.g., number of instances, model parallelism, and GPU frequency) translate into different energy-performance trade-offs. To address these challenges, we propose DynamoLLM, the first energy-management framework for LLM inference environments. DynamoLLM automatically and dynamically reconfigures the inference cluster to optimize for energy and cost of LLM serving under the service's performance SLOs. We show that at a service-level, DynamoLLM conserves 53% energy and 38% operational carbon emissions, and reduces 61% cost to the customer, while meeting the latency SLOs.


DriveArena: A Closed-loop Generative Simulation Platform for Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presented DriveArena, the first high-fidelity closed-loop simulation system designed for driving agents navigating in real scenarios. DriveArena features a flexible, modular architecture, allowing for the seamless interchange of its core components: Traffic Manager, a traffic simulator capable of generating realistic traffic flow on any worldwide street map, and World Dreamer, a high-fidelity conditional generative model with infinite autoregression. This powerful synergy empowers any driving agent capable of processing real-world images to navigate in DriveArena's simulated environment. The agent perceives its surroundings through images generated by World Dreamer and output trajectories. These trajectories are fed into Traffic Manager, achieving realistic interactions with other vehicles and producing a new scene layout. Finally, the latest scene layout is relayed back into World Dreamer, perpetuating the simulation cycle. This iterative process fosters closed-loop exploration within a highly realistic environment, providing a valuable platform for developing and evaluating driving agents across diverse and challenging scenarios. DriveArena signifies a substantial leap forward in leveraging generative image data for the driving simulation platform, opening insights for closed-loop autonomous driving. Code will be available soon on GitHub: https://github.com/PJLab-ADG/DriveArena