Energy
PowerPM: Foundation Model for Power Systems
Tu, Shihao, Zhang, Yupeng, Zhang, Jing, Yang, Yang
The emergence of abundant electricity time series (ETS) data provides ample opportunities for various applications in the power systems, including demand-side management, grid stability, and consumer behavior analysis. Deep learning models have advanced ETS modeling by effectively capturing sequence dependence. Nevertheless, learning a generic representation of ETS data for various applications remains challenging due to the inherently complex hierarchical structure of ETS data. Moreover, ETS data exhibits intricate temporal dependencies and is suscepti ble to the influence of exogenous variables. Furthermore, different instances exhibit diverse electricity consumption behavior. In this paper, we propose a foundation model PowerPM to model ETS data, providing a large-scale, off-the-shelf model for power systems. PowerPM consists of a temporal encoder and a hierarchical encoder. The temporal encoder captures both temporal dependencies in ETS data, considering exogenous variables. The hierarchical encoder models the correlation between hierarchy. Furthermore, PowerPM leverages a novel self-supervised pretraining framework consisting of masked ETS modeling and dual-view contrastive learning, which enable PowerPM to capture temporal dependency within ETS windows and aware the discrepancy across ETS windows, providing two different perspectives to learn generic representation. Our experiments involve five real world scenario datasets, comprising private and public data. Through pre-training on massive ETS data, PowerPM achieves SOTA performance on diverse downstream tasks within the private dataset. Impressively, when transferred to the public datasets, PowerPM maintains its superiority, showcasing its remarkable generalization ability across various tasks and domains. Moreover, ablation studies, few-shot experiments provide additional evidence of the effectiveness of our model.
Inference Plans for Hybrid Particle Filtering
Cheng, Ellie Y., Atkinson, Eric, Baudart, Guillaume, Mandel, Louis, Carbin, Michael
Advanced probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) use hybrid inference systems to combine symbolic exact inference and Monte Carlo methods to improve inference performance. These systems use heuristics to partition random variables within the program into variables that are encoded symbolically and variables that are encoded with sampled values, and the heuristics are not necessarily aligned with the performance evaluation metrics used by the developer. In this work, we present inference plans, a programming interface that enables developers to control the partitioning of random variables during hybrid particle filtering. We further present Siren, a new PPL that enables developers to use annotations to specify inference plans the inference system must implement. To assist developers with statically reasoning about whether an inference plan can be implemented, we present an abstract-interpretation-based static analysis for Siren for determining inference plan satisfiability. We prove the analysis is sound with respect to Siren's semantics. Our evaluation applies inference plans to three different hybrid particle filtering algorithms on a suite of benchmarks and shows that the control provided by inference plans enables speed ups of 1.76x on average and up to 206x to reach target accuracy, compared to the inference plans implemented by default heuristics; the results also show that inference plans improve accuracy by 1.83x on average and up to 595x with less or equal runtime, compared to the default inference plans. We further show that the static analysis is precise in practice, identifying all satisfiable inference plans in 27 out of the 33 benchmark-algorithm combinations.
Hybrid Recurrent Models Support Emergent Descriptions for Hierarchical Planning and Control
Collis, Poppy, Singh, Ryan, Kinghorn, Paul F, Buckley, Christopher L
An open problem in artificial intelligence is how systems can flexibly learn discrete abstractions that are useful for solving inherently continuous problems. Previous work has demonstrated that a class of hybrid state-space model known as recurrent switching linear dynamical systems (rSLDS) discover meaningful behavioural units via the piecewise linear decomposition of complex continuous dynamics (Linderman et al., 2016). Furthermore, they model how the underlying continuous states drive these discrete mode switches. We propose that the rich representations formed by an rSLDS can provide useful abstractions for planning and control. We present a novel hierarchical model-based algorithm inspired by Active Inference in which a discrete MDP sits above a low-level linear-quadratic controller. The recurrent transition dynamics learned by the rSLDS allow us to (1) specify temporally-abstracted sub-goals in a method reminiscent of the options framework, (2) lift the exploration into discrete space allowing us to exploit information-theoretic exploration bonuses and (3) `cache' the approximate solutions to low-level problems in the discrete planner. We successfully apply our model to the sparse Continuous Mountain Car task, demonstrating fast system identification via enhanced exploration and non-trivial planning through the delineation of abstract sub-goals.
Unified Deep Learning Model for Global Prediction of Aboveground Biomass, Canopy Height and Cover from High-Resolution, Multi-Sensor Satellite Imagery
Weber, Manuel, Beneke, Carly, Wheeler, Clyde
Regular measurement of carbon stock in the world's forests is critical for carbon accounting and reporting under national and international climate initiatives, and for scientific research, but has been largely limited in scalability and temporal resolution due to a lack of ground based assessments. Increasing efforts have been made to address these challenges by incorporating remotely sensed data. We present a new methodology which uses multi-sensor, multi-spectral imagery at a resolution of 10 meters and a deep learning based model which unifies the prediction of above ground biomass density (AGBD), canopy height (CH), canopy cover (CC) as well as uncertainty estimations for all three quantities. The model is trained on millions of globally sampled GEDI-L2/L4 measurements. We validate the capability of our model by deploying it over the entire globe for the year 2023 as well as annually from 2016 to 2023 over selected areas. The model achieves a mean absolute error for AGBD (CH, CC) of 26.1 Mg/ha (3.7 m, 9.9 %) and a root mean squared error of 50.6 Mg/ha (5.4 m, 15.8 %) on a globally sampled test dataset, demonstrating a significant improvement over previously published results. We also report the model performance against independently collected ground measurements published in the literature, which show a high degree of correlation across varying conditions. We further show that our pre-trained model facilitates seamless transferability to other GEDI variables due to its multi-head architecture.
A Closer Look at Data Augmentation Strategies for Finetuning-Based Low/Few-Shot Object Detection
Li, Vladislav, Tsoumplekas, Georgios, Siniosoglou, Ilias, Argyriou, Vasileios, Lytos, Anastasios, Fountoukidis, Eleftherios, Sarigiannidis, Panagiotis
Current methods for low- and few-shot object detection have primarily focused on enhancing model performance for detecting objects. One common approach to achieve this is by combining model finetuning with data augmentation strategies. However, little attention has been given to the energy efficiency of these approaches in data-scarce regimes. This paper seeks to conduct a comprehensive empirical study that examines both model performance and energy efficiency of custom data augmentations and automated data augmentation selection strategies when combined with a lightweight object detector. The methods are evaluated in three different benchmark datasets in terms of their performance and energy consumption, and the Efficiency Factor is employed to gain insights into their effectiveness considering both performance and efficiency. Consequently, it is shown that in many cases, the performance gains of data augmentation strategies are overshadowed by their increased energy usage, necessitating the development of more energy efficient data augmentation strategies to address data scarcity.
Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO$_2$ with Neural Networks
Benson, Vitus, Bastos, Ana, Reimers, Christian, Winkler, Alexander J., Yang, Fanny, Reichstein, Markus
Accurately describing the distribution of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO$_2$. More specifically, we center CO$_2$ input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day $R^2 > 0.99$), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.
Persona-DB: Efficient Large Language Model Personalization for Response Prediction with Collaborative Data Refinement
Sun, Chenkai, Yang, Ke, Reddy, Revanth Gangi, Fung, Yi R., Chan, Hou Pong, Small, Kevin, Zhai, ChengXiang, Ji, Heng
The increasing demand for personalized interactions with large language models (LLMs) calls for methodologies capable of accurately and efficiently identifying user opinions and preferences. Retrieval augmentation emerges as an effective strategy, as it can accommodate a vast number of users without the costs from fine-tuning. Existing research, however, has largely focused on enhancing the retrieval stage and devoted limited exploration toward optimizing the representation of the database, a crucial aspect for tasks such as personalization. In this work, we examine the problem from a novel angle, focusing on how data can be better represented for more data-efficient retrieval in the context of LLM customization. To tackle this challenge, we introduce Persona-DB, a simple yet effective framework consisting of a hierarchical construction process to improve generalization across task contexts and collaborative refinement to effectively bridge knowledge gaps among users. In the evaluation of response prediction, Persona-DB demonstrates superior context efficiency in maintaining accuracy with a significantly reduced retrieval size, a critical advantage in scenarios with extensive histories or limited context windows. Our experiments also indicate a marked improvement of over 10% under cold-start scenarios, when users have extremely sparse data. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the increasing importance of collaborative knowledge as the retrieval capacity expands.
Analyzing the Impact of Electric Vehicles on Local Energy Systems using Digital Twins
Bayer, Daniel René, Pruckner, Marco
The electrification of the transportation and heating sector, the so-called sector coupling, is one of the core elements to achieve independence from fossil fuels. As it highly affects the electricity demand, especially on the local level, the integrated modeling and simulation of all sectors is a promising approach for analyzing design decisions or complex control strategies. This paper analyzes the increase in electricity demand resulting from sector coupling, mainly due to integrating electric vehicles into urban energy systems. Therefore, we utilize a digital twin of an existing local energy system and extend it with a mobility simulation model to evaluate the impact of electric vehicles on the distribution grid level. Our findings indicate a significant rise in annual electricity consumption attributed to electric vehicles, with home charging alone resulting in a 78% increase. However, we demonstrate that integrating photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems can effectively mitigate this rise.
A Mini-Review on Mobile Manipulators with Variable Autonomy
Contreras, Cesar Alan, Rastegarpanah, Alireza, Stolkin, Rustam, Chiou, Manolis
This paper presents a mini-review of the current state of research in mobile manipulators with variable levels of autonomy, emphasizing their associated challenges and application environments. The need for mobile manipulators in different environments is evident due to the unique challenges and risks each presents. Many systems deployed in these environments are not fully autonomous, requiring human-robot teaming to ensure safe and reliable operations under uncertainties. Through this analysis, we identify gaps and challenges in the literature on Variable Autonomy, including cognitive workload and communication delays, and propose future directions, including whole-body Variable Autonomy for mobile manipulators, virtual reality frameworks, and large language models to reduce operators' complexity and cognitive load in some challenging and uncertain scenarios.
Inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing for Heliostat Surface Prediction
Lewen, Jan, Pargmann, Max, Cherti, Mehdi, Jitsev, Jenia, Pitz-Paal, Robert, Quinto, Daniel Maldonado
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants play a crucial role in the global transition towards sustainable energy. A key factor in ensuring the safe and efficient operation of CSP plants is the distribution of concentrated flux density on the receiver. However, the non-ideal flux density generated by individual heliostats can undermine the safety and efficiency of the power plant. The flux density from each heliostat is influenced by its precise surface profile, which includes factors such as canting and mirror errors. Accurately measuring these surface profiles for a large number of heliostats in operation is a formidable challenge. Consequently, control systems often rely on the assumption of ideal surface conditions, which compromises both safety and operational efficiency. In this study, we introduce inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing (iDLR), an innovative method designed to predict heliostat surfaces based solely on target images obtained during heliostat calibration. Our simulation-based investigation demonstrates that sufficient information regarding the heliostat surface is retained in the flux density distribution of a single heliostat, enabling deep learning models to accurately predict the underlying surface with deflectometry-like precision for the majority of heliostats. Additionally, we assess the limitations of this method, particularly in relation to surface accuracy and resultant flux density predictions. Furthermore, we are presenting a new comprehensive heliostat model using Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline (NURBS) that has the potential to become the new State of the Art for heliostat surface parameterization. Our findings reveal that iDLR has significant potential to enhance CSP plant operations, potentially increasing the overall efficiency and energy output of the power plants.