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Verification methods for international AI agreements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

What techniques can be used to verify compliance with international agreements about advanced AI development? In this paper, we examine 10 verification methods that could detect two types of potential violations: unauthorized AI training (e.g., training runs above a certain FLOP threshold) and unauthorized data centers. We divide the verification methods into three categories: (a) national technical means (methods requiring minimal or no access from suspected non-compliant nations), (b) access-dependent methods (methods that require approval from the nation suspected of unauthorized activities), and (c) hardware-dependent methods (methods that require rules around advanced hardware). For each verification method, we provide a description, historical precedents, and possible evasion techniques. We conclude by offering recommendations for future work related to the verification and enforcement of international AI governance agreements.


Statistical QoS Provision in Business-Centric Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

More refined resource management and Quality of Service (QoS) provisioning is a critical goal of wireless communication technologies. In this paper, we propose a novel Business-Centric Network (BCN) aimed at enabling scalable QoS provisioning, based on a cross-layer framework that captures the relationship between application, transport parameters, and channels. We investigate both continuous flow and event-driven flow models, presenting key QoS metrics such as throughput, delay, and reliability. By jointly considering power and bandwidth allocation, transmission parameters, and AP network topology across layers, we optimize weighted resource efficiency with statistical QoS provisioning. To address the coupling among parameters, we propose a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework, which is Collaborative Optimization among Heterogeneous Actors with Experience Sharing (COHA-ES). Power and sub-channel (SC) Actors representing multiple APs are jointly optimized under the unified guidance of a common critic. Additionally, we introduce a novel multithreaded experience-sharing mechanism to accelerate training and enhance rewards. Extensive comparative experiments validate the effectiveness of our DRL framework in terms of convergence and efficiency. Moreover, comparative analyses demonstrate the comprehensive advantages of the BCN structure in enhancing both spectral and energy efficiency.


Grand canonical generative diffusion model for crystalline phases and grain boundaries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The diffusion model has emerged as a powerful tool for generating atomic structures for materials science. This work calls attention to the deficiency of current particle-based diffusion models, which represent atoms as a point cloud, in generating even the simplest ordered crystalline structures. The problem is attributed to particles being trapped in local minima during the score-driven simulated annealing of the diffusion process, similar to the physical process of force-driven simulated annealing. We develop a solution, the grand canonical diffusion model, which adopts an alternative voxel-based representation with continuous rather than fixed number of particles. The method is applied towards generation of several common crystalline phases as well as the technologically important and challenging problem of grain boundary structures.


A Kernel-Based Conditional Two-Sample Test Using Nearest Neighbors (with Applications to Calibration, Regression Curves, and Simulation-Based Inference)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we introduce a kernel-based measure for detecting differences between two conditional distributions. Using the `kernel trick' and nearest-neighbor graphs, we propose a consistent estimate of this measure which can be computed in nearly linear time (for a fixed number of nearest neighbors). Moreover, when the two conditional distributions are the same, the estimate has a Gaussian limit and its asymptotic variance has a simple form that can be easily estimated from the data. The resulting test attains precise asymptotic level and is universally consistent for detecting differences between two conditional distributions. We also provide a resampling based test using our estimate that applies to the conditional goodness-of-fit problem, which controls Type I error in finite samples and is asymptotically consistent with only a finite number of resamples. A method to de-randomize the resampling test is also presented. The proposed methods can be readily applied to a broad range of problems, ranging from classical nonparametric statistics to modern machine learning. Specifically, we explore three applications: testing model calibration, regression curve evaluation, and validation of emulator models in simulation-based inference. We illustrate the superior performance of our method for these tasks, both in simulations as well as on real data. In particular, we apply our method to (1) assess the calibration of neural network models trained on the CIFAR-10 dataset, (2) compare regression functions for wind power generation across two different turbines, and (3) validate emulator models on benchmark examples with intractable posteriors and for generating synthetic `redshift' associated with galaxy images.


How 'Friendshoring' Made Southeast Asia Pivotal to the AI Revolution

TIME - Tech

Employees entering Intel's advanced PG8 foundry on the Malaysian island of Penang must take elaborate safety precautions. First, staff don blue shoe coverings, followed by a hairnet, plastic hood, facemask, bunny suit, latex gloves, and eye goggles. Finally, plastic boots are placed over those already-covered shoes with a special strap tucked into the wearer's socks to "ground" them. For it's not just a stray hair or skin flake that can be deadly to Intel's latest artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor chips--even the static shock from an unsuspecting pinky can measure 10,000 volts and fry their delicate circuitry. "Static is a unit killer," says Phynthamilkumaran Siea Dass, Intel's director of assembly test manufacturing in Penang, as he leads TIME through interlocked doors into PG8's cleanroom.


MODULI: Unlocking Preference Generalization via Diffusion Models for Offline Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) seeks to develop policies that simultaneously optimize multiple conflicting objectives, but it requires extensive online interactions. Offline MORL provides a promising solution by training on pre-collected datasets to generalize to any preference upon deployment. However, real-world offline datasets are often conservatively and narrowly distributed, failing to comprehensively cover preferences, leading to the emergence of out-of-distribution (OOD) preference areas. Existing offline MORL algorithms exhibit poor generalization to OOD preferences, resulting in policies that do not align with preferences. Leveraging the excellent expressive and generalization capabilities of diffusion models, we propose MODULI (Multi-objective Diffusion Planner with Sliding Guidance), which employs a preference-conditioned diffusion model as a planner to generate trajectories that align with various preferences and derive action for decision-making. To achieve accurate generation, MODULI introduces two return normalization methods under diverse preferences for refining guidance. To further enhance generalization to OOD preferences, MODULI proposes a novel sliding guidance mechanism, which involves training an additional slider adapter to capture the direction of preference changes. Incorporating the slider, it transitions from in-distribution (ID) preferences to generating OOD preferences, patching, and extending the incomplete Pareto front. Extensive experiments on the D4MORL benchmark demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art Offline MORL baselines, exhibiting excellent generalization to OOD preferences.


Evaluating the Impact of Multiple DER Aggregators on Wholesale Energy Markets: A Hybrid Mean Field Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into wholesale energy markets can greatly enhance grid flexibility, improve market efficiency, and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. As DERs -- such as solar PV panels and energy storage -- proliferate, effective mechanisms are needed to ensure that small prosumers can participate meaningfully in these markets. We study a wholesale market model featuring multiple DER aggregators, each controlling a portfolio of DER resources and bidding into the market on behalf of the DER asset owners. The key of our approach lies in recognizing the repeated nature of market interactions the ability of participants to learn and adapt over time. Specifically, Aggregators repeatedly interact with each other and with other suppliers in the wholesale market, collectively shaping wholesale electricity prices (aka the locational marginal prices (LMPs)). We model this multi-agent interaction using a mean-field game (MFG), which uses market information -- reflecting the average behavior of market participants -- to enable each aggregator to predict long-term LMP trends and make informed decisions. For each aggregator, because they control the DERs within their portfolio under certain contract structures, we employ a mean-field control (MFC) approach (as opposed to a MFG) to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the total rewards of the DERs under their management. We also propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based method to help each agent learn optimal strategies within the MFG framework, enhancing their ability to adapt to market conditions and uncertainties. Numerical simulations show that LMPs quickly reach a steady state in the hybrid mean-field approach. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the combination of energy storage and mean-field learning significantly reduces price volatility compared to scenarios without storage.


TCNFormer: Temporal Convolutional Network Former for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Global environmental challenges and rising energy demands have led to extensive exploration of wind energy technologies. Accurate wind speed forecasting (WSF) is crucial for optimizing wind energy capture and ensuring system stability. However, predicting wind speed remains challenging due to its inherent randomness, fluctuation, and unpredictability. This study proposes the Temporal Convolutional Network Former (TCNFormer) for short-term (12-hour) wind speed forecasting. The TCNFormer integrates the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and transformer encoder to capture the spatio-temporal features of wind speed. The transformer encoder consists of two distinct attention mechanisms: causal temporal multi-head self-attention (CT-MSA) and temporal external attention (TEA). CT-MSA ensures that the output of a step derives only from previous steps, i.e., causality. Locality is also introduced to improve efficiency. TEA explores potential relationships between different sample sequences in wind speed data. This study utilizes wind speed data from the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) of Patenga Sea Beach, Chittagong, Bangladesh (latitude 22.2352{\deg} N, longitude 91.7914{\deg} E) over a year (six seasons). The findings indicate that the TCNFormer outperforms state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy. The proposed TCNFormer presents a promising method for spatio-temporal WSF and may achieve desirable performance in real-world applications of wind power systems.


Improving Water Quality Time-Series Prediction in Hong Kong using Sentinel-2 MSI Data and Google Earth Engine Cloud Computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective water quality monitoring in coastal regions is crucial due to the progressive deterioration caused by pollution and human activities. To address this, this study develops time-series models to predict chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), suspended solids (SS), and turbidity using Sentinel-2 satellite data and Google Earth Engine (GEE) in the coastal regions of Hong Kong. Leveraging Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks, the study incorporates extensive temporal datasets to enhance prediction accuracy. The models utilize spectral data from Sentinel-2, focusing on optically active components, and demonstrate that selected variables closely align with the spectral characteristics of Chl-a and SS. The results indicate improved predictive performance over previous methods, highlighting the potential for remote sensing technology in continuous and comprehensive water quality assessment.


Artificially intelligent Maxwell's demon for optimal control of open quantum systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Feedback control of open quantum systems is of fundamental importance for practical applications in various contexts, ranging from quantum computation to quantum error correction and quantum metrology. Its use in the context of thermodynamics further enables the study of the interplay between information and energy. However, deriving optimal feedback control strategies is highly challenging, as it involves the optimal control of open quantum systems, the stochastic nature of quantum measurement, and the inclusion of policies that maximize a long-term time- and trajectory-averaged goal. In this work, we employ a reinforcement learning approach to automate and capture the role of a quantum Maxwell's demon: the agent takes the literal role of discovering optimal feedback control strategies in qubit-based systems that maximize a trade-off between measurement-powered cooling and measurement efficiency. Considering weak or projective quantum measurements, we explore different regimes based on the ordering between the thermalization, the measurement, and the unitary feedback timescales, finding different and highly non-intuitive, yet interpretable, strategies. In the thermalization-dominated regime, we find strategies with elaborate finite-time thermalization protocols conditioned on measurement outcomes. In the measurement-dominated regime, we find that optimal strategies involve adaptively measuring different qubit observables reflecting the acquired information, and repeating multiple weak measurements until the quantum state is "sufficiently pure", leading to random walks in state space. Finally, we study the case when all timescales are comparable, finding new feedback control strategies that considerably outperform more intuitive ones. We discuss a two-qubit example where we explore the role of entanglement and conclude discussing the scaling of our results to quantum many-body systems.