In the context of global energy strategy, accurate natural gas demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring efficient resource allocation and operational planning. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to cope with the growing complexity and variability of gas consumption patterns across diverse industries and commercial sectors. To address these challenges, we propose the first foundation model specifically tailored for natural gas demand forecasting. Foundation models, known for their ability to generalize across tasks and datasets, offer a robust solution to the limitations of traditional methods, such as the need for separate models for different customer segments and their limited generalization capabilities. Our approach leverages contrastive learning to improve prediction accuracy in real-world scenarios, particularly by tackling issues such as noise in historical consumption data and the potential misclassification of similar data samples, which can lead to degradation in the quaility of the representation and thus the accuracy of downstream forecasting tasks. By integrating advanced noise filtering techniques within the contrastive learning framework, our model enhances the quality of learned representations, leading to more accurate predictions. Furthermore, the model undergoes industry-specific fine-tuning during pretraining, enabling it to better capture the unique characteristics of gas consumption across various sectors. We conducted extensive experiments using a large-scale dataset from ENN Group, which includes data from over 10,000 industrial, commercial, and welfare-related customers across multiple regions. Our model outperformed existing state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating a relative improvement in MSE by 3.68\% and in MASE by 6.15\% compared to the best available model.

Deep neural network (DNN) models are effective solutions for industry 4.0 applications (\eg oil spill detection, fire detection, anomaly detection). However, training a DNN network model needs a considerable amount of data collected from various sources and transferred to the central cloud server that can be expensive and sensitive to privacy. For instance, in the remote offshore oil field where network connectivity is vulnerable, a federated fog environment can be a potential computing platform. Hence it is feasible to perform computation within the federation. On the contrary, performing a DNN model training using fog systems poses a security issue that the federated learning (FL) technique can resolve. In this case, the new challenge is the class imbalance problem that can be inherited in local data sets and can degrade the performance of the global model. Therefore, FL training needs to be performed considering the class imbalance problem locally. In addition, an efficient technique to select the relevant worker model needs to be adopted at the global level to increase the robustness of the global model. Accordingly, we utilize one of the suitable loss functions addressing the class imbalance in workers at the local level. In addition, we employ a dynamic threshold mechanism with user-defined worker's weight to efficiently select workers for aggregation that improve the global model's robustness. Finally, we perform an extensive empirical evaluation to explore the benefits of our solution and find up to 3-5% performance improvement than baseline federated learning methods.

Large language models (LLMs) encode extensive world knowledge through pre-training on massive datasets, which can then be fine-tuned for the question-answering (QA) task. However, effective strategies for fine-tuning LLMs for the QA task remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we categorize supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data based on the extent of knowledge memorized by the pretrained LLMs and conduct a series of empirical analyses. Our experiments, involving four LLMs from three different model families, focus on three key factors: the amount of data required for SFT, the impact of different SFT datasets on model performance, and how data requirements vary across LLMs. The results show that as few as 60 data points during the SFT stage can activate the knowledge encoded during pre-training, enabling LLMs to perform the QA task. Additionally, SFT with data of varying memory levels has a significant impact on LLM performance, with the optimal dataset differing based on the specific model being fine-tuned.

Flow-based architectures have recently proved to be an efficient tool for numerical simulations of Effective String Theories regularized on the lattice that otherwise cannot be efficiently sampled by standard Monte Carlo methods. In this work we use Stochastic Normalizing Flows, a state-of-the-art deep-learning architecture based on non-equilibrium Monte Carlo simulations, to study different effective string models. After testing the reliability of this approach through a comparison with exact results for the Nambu-Got\={o} model, we discuss results on observables that are challenging to study analytically, such as the width of the string and the shape of the flux density. Furthermore, we perform a novel numerical study of Effective String Theories with terms beyond the Nambu-Got\={o} action, including a broader discussion on their significance for lattice gauge theories. These results establish the reliability and feasibility of flow-based samplers for Effective String Theories and pave the way for future applications on more complex models.

Forecasting oil production from oilfields with multiple wells is an important problem in petroleum and geothermal energy extraction, as well as energy storage technologies. The accuracy of oil forecasts is a critical determinant of economic projections, hydrocarbon reserves estimation, construction of fluid processing facilities, and energy price fluctuations. Leveraging generative AI techniques, we model time series forecasting of oil and water productions across four multi-well sites spanning four decades. Our goal is to effectively model uncertainties and make precise forecasts to inform decision-making processes at the field scale. We utilize an autoregressive model known as TimeGrad and a variant of a transformer architecture named Informer, tailored specifically for forecasting long sequence time series data. Predictions from both TimeGrad and Informer closely align with the ground truth data. The overall performance of the Informer stands out, demonstrating greater efficiency compared to TimeGrad in forecasting oil production rates across all sites.

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO$_2$ into subsurface geological formations for permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predicting CO$_2$ migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simulations are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporal simulation domains. Surrogate modeling with data-driven machine learning has become a promising alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator (FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operator network (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has at least 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates separately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy. In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond the training range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nested FNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolation accuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injection rate.

Nature has evolved humans to walk on different terrains by developing a detailed understanding of their physical characteristics. Similarly, legged robots need to develop their capability to walk on complex terrains with a variety of task-dependent payloads to achieve their goals. However, conventional terrain adaptation methods are susceptible to failure with varying payloads. In this work, we introduce PANOS, a weakly supervised approach that integrates proprioception and exteroception from onboard sensing to achieve a stable gait while walking by a legged robot over various terrains. Our work also provides evidence of its adaptability over varying payloads. We evaluate our method on multiple terrains and payloads using a legged robot. PANOS improves the stability up to 44% without any payload and 53% with 15 lbs payload. We also notice a reduction in the vibration cost of 20% with the payload for various terrain types when compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current and future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a recent increase in the number of automated center-fixing methods, only one such method (ARCHER-2) is operational, and its best performance is achieved when using microwave or scatterometer data, which are not available at every forecast cycle. We develop a deep-learning algorithm called GeoCenter; it relies only on geostationary IR satellite imagery, which is available for all TC basins at high frequency (10-15 min) and low latency (< 10 min) during both day and night. GeoCenter ingests an animation (time series) of IR images, including 10 channels at lag times up to 3 hours. The animation is centered at a "first guess" location, offset from the true TC-center location by 48 km on average and sometimes > 100 km; GeoCenter is tasked with correcting this offset. On an independent testing dataset, GeoCenter achieves a mean/median/RMS (root mean square) error of 26.9/23.3/32.0 km for all systems, 25.7/22.3/30.5 km for tropical systems, and 15.7/13.6/18.6 km for category-2--5 hurricanes. These values are similar to ARCHER-2 errors when microwave or scatterometer data are available, and better than ARCHER-2 errors when only IR data are available. GeoCenter also performs skillful uncertainty quantification (UQ), producing a well calibrated ensemble of 200 TC-center locations. Furthermore, all predictors used by GeoCenter are available in real time, which would make GeoCenter easy to implement operationally every 10-15 min.

This article introduces the Clarke transform and Clarke coordinates, which present a solution to the disengagement of an arbitrary number of coupled displacement actuation of continuum and soft robots. The Clarke transform utilizes the generalized Clarke transformation and its inverse to reduce any number of joint values to a two-dimensional space without sacrificing any significant information. This space is the manifold of the joint space and is described by two orthogonal Clarke coordinates. Application to kinematics, sampling, and control are presented. By deriving the solution to the previously unknown forward robot-dependent mapping for an arbitrary number of joints, the forward and inverse kinematics formulations are branchless, closed-form, and singular-free. Sampling is used as a proxy for gauging the performance implications for various methods and frameworks, leading to a branchless, closed-form, and vectorizable sampling method with a 100 percent success rate and the possibility to shape desired distributions. Due to the utilization of the manifold, the fairly simple constraint-informed, two-dimensional, and linear controller always provides feasible control outputs. On top of that, the relations to improved representations in continuum and soft robotics are established, where the Clarke coordinates are their generalizations. The Clarke transform offers valuable geometric insights and paves the way for developing approaches directly on the two-dimensional manifold within the high-dimensional joint space, ensuring compliance with the constraint. While being an easy-to-construct linear map, the proposed Clarke transform is mathematically consistent, physically meaningful, as well as interpretable and contributes to the unification of frameworks across continuum and soft robots.

Federated Learning (FL) is a decentralized machine learning paradigm where models are trained on distributed devices and are aggregated at a central server. Existing FL frameworks assume simple two-tier network topologies where end devices are directly connected to the aggregation server. While this is a practical mental model, it does not exploit the inherent topology of real-world distributed systems like the Internet-of-Things. We present Flight, a novel FL framework that supports complex hierarchical multi-tier topologies, asynchronous aggregation, and decouples the control plane from the data plane. We compare the performance of Flight against Flower, a state-of-the-art FL framework. Our results show that Flight scales beyond Flower, supporting up to 2048 simultaneous devices, and reduces FL makespan across several models. Finally, we show that Flight's hierarchical FL model can reduce communication overheads by more than 60%.