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Enhancing Multivariate Time Series-based Solar Flare Prediction with Multifaceted Preprocessing and Contrastive Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate solar flare prediction is crucial due to the significant risks that intense solar flares pose to astronauts, space equipment, and satellite communication systems. Our research enhances solar flare prediction by utilizing advanced data preprocessing and classification methods on a multivariate time series-based dataset of photospheric magnetic field parameters. First, our study employs a novel preprocessing pipeline that includes missing value imputation, normalization, balanced sampling, near decision boundary sample removal, and feature selection to significantly boost prediction accuracy. Second, we integrate contrastive learning with a GRU regression model to develop a novel classifier, termed ContReg, which employs dual learning methodologies, thereby further enhancing prediction performance. To validate the effectiveness of our preprocessing pipeline, we compare and demonstrate the performance gain of each step, and to demonstrate the efficacy of the ContReg classifier, we compare its performance to that of sequence-based deep learning architectures, machine learning models, and findings from previous studies. Our results illustrate exceptional True Skill Statistic (TSS) scores, surpassing previous methods and highlighting the critical role of precise data preprocessing and classifier development in time series-based solar flare prediction.


Opinion Mining on Offshore Wind Energy for Environmental Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we conduct sentiment analysis on social media data to study mass opinion about offshore wind energy. We adapt three machine learning models, namely, TextBlob, VADER, and SentiWordNet because different functions are provided by each model. TextBlob provides subjectivity analysis as well as polarity classification. VADER offers cumulative sentiment scores. SentiWordNet considers sentiments with reference to context and performs classification accordingly. Techniques in NLP are harnessed to gather meaning from the textual data in social media. Data visualization tools are suitably deployed to display the overall results. This work is much in line with citizen science and smart governance via involvement of mass opinion to guide decision support. It exemplifies the role of Machine Learning and NLP here.


What is a Digital Twin Anyway? Deriving the Definition for the Built Environment from over 15,000 Scientific Publications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The concept of digital twins has attracted significant attention across various domains, particularly within the built environment. However, there is a sheer volume of definitions and the terminological consensus remains out of reach. The lack of a universally accepted definition leads to ambiguities in their conceptualization and implementation, and may cause miscommunication for both researchers and practitioners. We employed Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to systematically extract and analyze definitions of digital twins from a corpus of 15,000 full-text articles spanning diverse disciplines in the built environment. The study compares these findings with insights from an expert survey that included 52 experts. The study identifies concurrence on the components that comprise a 'Digital Twin' from a practical perspective across various domains, contrasting them with those that do not, to identify deviations. We investigate the evolution of digital twin definitions over time and across different scales, including manufacturing, building, and urban/geospatial perspectives. We extracted the main components of Digital Twins using Text Frequency Analysis and N-gram analysis. Subsequently, we identified components that appeared in the literature and conducted a Chi-square test to assess the significance of each component in different domains. Our findings indicate that definitions differ based on the field of research in which they are conceived, but with many similarities across domains. One significant generalizable differentiation is related to whether a digital twin was used for High-Performance Real-Time (HPRT) or Long-Term Decision Support (LTDS) applications. We synthesized and contrasted the most representative definitions in each domain, culminating in a novel, data-driven definition specifically tailored for each context.


Component-based Sketching for Deep ReLU Nets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning has made profound impacts in the domains of data mining and AI, distinguished by the groundbreaking achievements in numerous real-world applications and the innovative algorithm design philosophy. However, it suffers from the inconsistency issue between optimization and generalization, as achieving good generalization, guided by the bias-variance trade-off principle, favors under-parameterized networks, whereas ensuring effective convergence of gradient-based algorithms demands over-parameterized networks. To address this issue, we develop a novel sketching scheme based on deep net components for various tasks. Specifically, we use deep net components with specific efficacy to build a sketching basis that embodies the advantages of deep networks. Subsequently, we transform deep net training into a linear empirical risk minimization problem based on the constructed basis, successfully avoiding the complicated convergence analysis of iterative algorithms. The efficacy of the proposed component-based sketching is validated through both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments. Theoretically, we show that the proposed component-based sketching provides almost optimal rates in approximating saturated functions for shallow nets and also achieves almost optimal generalization error bounds. Numerically, we demonstrate that, compared with the existing gradient-based training methods, component-based sketching possesses superior generalization performance with reduced training costs.


On Importance of Pruning and Distillation for Efficient Low Resource NLP

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of large transformer models has revolutionized Natural Language Processing, leading to significant advances in tasks like text classification. However, this progress demands substantial computational resources, escalating training duration, and expenses with larger model sizes. Efforts have been made to downsize and accelerate English models (e.g., Distilbert, MobileBert). Yet, research in this area is scarce for low-resource languages. In this study, we explore the case of the low-resource Indic language Marathi. Leveraging the marathi-topic-all-doc-v2 model as our baseline, we implement optimization techniques to reduce computation time and memory usage. Our focus is on enhancing the efficiency of Marathi transformer models while maintaining top-tier accuracy and reducing computational demands. Using the MahaNews document classification dataset and the marathi-topic-all-doc-v2 model from L3Cube, we apply Block Movement Pruning, Knowledge Distillation, and Mixed Precision methods individually and in combination to boost efficiency. We demonstrate the importance of strategic pruning levels in achieving desired efficiency gains. Furthermore, we analyze the balance between efficiency improvements and environmental impact, highlighting how optimized model architectures can contribute to a more sustainable computational ecosystem. Implementing these techniques on a single GPU system, we determine that the optimal configuration is 25\% pruning + knowledge distillation. This approach yielded a 2.56x speedup in computation time while maintaining baseline accuracy levels.


Microsoft AI needs so much power it's tapping site of U.S. nuclear meltdown

The Japan Times

The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will invest 1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft as the tech titan seeks carbon-free electricity for data centers to power the artificial intelligence boom. Constellation Energy, the biggest U.S. operator of reactors, expects Three Mile Island to go back into service in 2028, according to a statement Friday. While one of the site's two units permanently closed almost a half-century ago after the worst U.S. nuclear accident, Constellation is planning to reopen the other reactor, which shut in 2019 because it couldn't compete economically. Shares of Constellation Energy jumped as much as 22%, the most on record, to an all-time high on Friday.


Massive AI energy demand is bringing Three Mile Island back from the dead

Popular Science

Power-hungry generative AI models are quickly making Big Tech sizable energy requirements even more demanding and forcing companies to seek out energy from unlikely places. While Meta and Google are exploring modern geothermal tech and other newer experimental energy sources, Microsoft is stepping back in time. This week, the company signed a 20-year-deal to source energy from the storied Three Mile Island nuclear facility in Pennsylvania, a site once known for the worst reactor accident in US history. If successful, the effort would breathe life back into the iconic symbol of US nuclear power and potentially provide Microsoft with around 800 megawatts of clean-burning energy to help satiate its growing energy appetite. "This agreement is a major milestone in Microsoft's efforts to help decarbonize the grid in support of our commitment to become carbon negative," Microsoft VP of Energy Bobby Hollis, said in a statement.


Microsoft plans to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant that narrowly avoided disaster

Engadget

Microsoft is in the midst of a deal that would bring the infamous Three Mile Island nuclear power plant back to life, according to reporting by The Washington Post. If the name sounds familiar, it's because the Pennsylvania plant was home to a partial meltdown of one of its reactors back in 1979. The deal would make Microsoft the plant's sole customer for 20 years, meaning it'll hoover up 100 percent of the power all for itself. Why does the company need so much juice? It's for AI, which is notoriously power hungry.


Incremental Few-Shot Adaptation for Non-Prehensile Object Manipulation using Parallelizable Physics Simulators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Few-shot adaptation is an important capability for intelligent robots that perform tasks in open-world settings such as everyday environments or flexible production. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for non-prehensile manipulation which iteratively adapts a physics-based dynamics model for model-predictive control. We adapt the parameters of the model incrementally with a few examples of robot-object interactions. This is achieved by sampling-based optimization of the parameters using a parallelizable rigid-body physics simulation as dynamic world model. In turn, the optimized dynamics model can be used for model-predictive control using efficient sampling-based optimization. We evaluate our few-shot adaptation approach in several object pushing experiments in simulation and with a real robot.


Time Distributed Deep Learning models for Purely Exogenous Forecasting. Application to Water Table Depth Prediction using Weather Image Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Groundwater resources are one of the most relevant elements in the water cycle, therefore developing models to accurately predict them is a pivotal task in the sustainable resources management framework. Deep Learning (DL) models have been revealed very effective in hydrology, especially by feeding spatially distributed data (e.g. raster data). In many regions, hydrological measurements are difficult to obtain regularly or periodically in time, and in some cases, last available data are not up to date. Reversely, weather data, which significantly impacts water resources, are usually more available and with higher quality. More specifically, we have proposed two different DL models to predict the water table depth in the Grana-Maira catchment (Piemonte, IT) using only exogenous weather image time series. To deal with the image time series, both models are made of a first Time Distributed Convolutional Neural Network (TDC) which encodes the image available at each time step into a vectorial representation. The first model, TDC-LSTM uses then a Sequential Module based on an LSTM layer to learn temporal relations and output the predictions. The second model, TDC-UnPWaveNet uses instead a new version of the WaveNet architecture, adapted here to output a sequence shorter and completely shifted in the future with respect to the input one. To this aim, and to deal with the different sequence lengths in the UnPWaveNet, we have designed a new Channel Distributed layer, that acts like a Time Distributed one but on the channel dimension, i.e. applying the same set of operations to each channel of the input. TDC-LSTM and TDC-UnPWaveNet have shown both remarkable results. However, the two models have focused on different learnable information: TDC-LSTM has focused more on lowering the bias, while the TDC-UnPWaveNet has focused more on the temporal dynamics maximising correlation and KGE.