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Performative Risk Control: Calibrating Models for Reliable Deployment under Performativity

Neural Information Processing Systems

Calibrating blackbox machine learning models to achieve risk control is crucial to ensure reliable decision-making. A rich line of literature has been studying how to calibrate a model so that its predictions satisfy explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees under a fixed, static, and unknown data-generating distribution. However, prediction-supported decisions may influence the outcome they aim to predict, a phenomenon named performativity of predictions, which is commonly seen in social science and economics. In this paper, we introduce Performative Risk Control, a framework to calibrate models to achieve risk control under performativity with provable theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we provide an iteratively refined calibration process, where we ensure the predictions are improved and risk-controlled throughout the process. We also study different types of risk measures and choices of tail bounds. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by numerical experiments on the task of predicting credit default risk. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first one to study statistically rigorous risk control under performativity, which will serve as an important safeguard against a wide range of strategic manipulation in decision-making processes.1


DiCoFlex: Model-agnostic diverse counterfactuals with flexible control

Neural Information Processing Systems

Counterfactual explanations play a pivotal role in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) by offering intuitive, human-understandable alternatives that elucidate machine learning model decisions. Despite their significance, existing methods for generating counterfactuals often require constant access to the predictive model, involve computationally intensive optimization for each instance and lack the flexibility to adapt to new user-defined constraints without retraining. In this paper, we propose DiCoFlex, a novel model-agnostic, conditional generative framework that produces multiple diverse counterfactuals in a single forward pass. Leveraging conditional normalizing flows trained solely on labeled data, DiCoFlex addresses key limitations by enabling real-time user-driven customization of constraints such as sparsity and actionability at inference time. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that DiCoFlex outperforms existing methods in terms of validity, diversity, proximity, and constraint adherence, making it a practical and scalable solution for counterfactual generation in sensitive decision-making domains.


Explainable AI Isn't Enough! Rethinking Algorithmic Contestability

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning systems increasingly make life-changing decisions about individuals, such as loan approvals, hiring, and cheating detection, raising a pressing question: how can individuals respond to negative decisions made by these opaque systems? While explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has largely focused on algorithmic recourse -- helping individuals change their features to obtain a desired outcome -- the parallel problem of algorithmic contestability -- helping individuals review and correct erroneous algorithmic decisions -- has received far less attention, despite its central ethical and legal importance. We trace this neglect to the absence of clear formal definitions and a systematic operationalization of contestability as an algorithmic problem. To address it, we propose an operational definition of contestability as a natural complement to recourse: contestability starts from the presumption that a decision may be incorrect and focuses on identifying evidence to challenge and potentially overturn it, whereas recourse assumes the decision is valid and instead provides pathways for changing it. We show that standard XAI explanations, such as counterfactuals, LIME, or Anchors, even when combined with human intuitions about decision continuity or monotonicity, reveal only errors in the neighborhood of the individual, but provide insufficient grounds for overturning the decision at hand. Going thus beyond traditional XAI, we identify three types of evidence warranting reversal according to the decision maker's own ethical standards: predictive multiplicity, incorrect feature values, and neglected overruling evidence. We argue that these render decisions normatively indefensible and thus successfully contestable. Finally, we analyze how existing EU legislation connects to our framework and argue that individuals already hold some legal rights to these forms of evidence.