Reservoir computing is a well-established approach for processing data with a much lower complexity compared to traditional neural networks. Despite two decades of experimental progress, the core properties of reservoir computing (namely separation, robustness, and fading memory) still lack rigorous mathematical foundations. This paper addresses this gap by providing a control-theoretic framework for the analysis of time-delay-based reservoir computers. We introduce formal definitions of the separation property and fading memory in terms of functional norms, and establish their connection to well-known stability notions for time-delay systems as incremental input-to-state stability. For a class of linear reservoirs, we derive an explicit lower bound for the separation distance via Fourier analysis, offering a computable criterion for reservoir design. Numerical results on the NARMA10 benchmark and continuous-time system prediction validate the approach with a minimal digital implementation.

Anomaly and failure detection methods are crucial in identifying deviations from normal system operational conditions, which allows for actions to be taken in advance, usually preventing more serious damages. Long-lasting deviations indicate failures, while sudden, isolated changes in the data indicate anomalies. However, in many practical applications, changes in the data do not always represent abnormal system states. Such changes may be recognized incorrectly as failures, while being a normal evolution of the system, e.g. referring to characteristics of starting the processing of a new product, i.e. realizing a domain shift. Therefore, distinguishing between failures and such ''healthy'' changes in data distribution is critical to ensure the practical robustness of the system. In this paper, we propose a method that not only detects changes in the data distribution and anomalies but also allows us to distinguish between failures and normal domain shifts inherent to a given process. The proposed method consists of a modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector for identification of the domain shift and possible failures and supervised domain-adaptation-based algorithms for fast, online anomaly detection. These two are coupled with an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) component that aims at helping the human operator to finally differentiate between domain shifts and failures. The method is illustrated by an experiment on a data stream from the steel factory.

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.

The signature is a canonical representation of a multidimensional path over an interval. However, it treats all historical information uniformly, offering no intrinsic mechanism for contextualising the relevance of the past. To address this, we introduce the Exponentially Weighted Signature (EWS), generalising the Exponentially Fading Memory (EFM) signature from diagonal to general bounded linear operators. These operators enable cross-channel coupling at the level of temporal weighting together with richer memory dynamics including oscillatory, growth, and regime-dependent behaviour, while preserving the algebraic strengths of the classical signature. We show that the EWS is the unique solution to a linear controlled differential equation on the tensor algebra, and that it generalises both state-space models and the Laplace and Fourier transforms of the path. The group-like structure of the EWS enables efficient computation and makes the framework amenable to gradient-based learning, with the full semigroup action parametrised by and learned through its generator. We use this framework to empirically demonstrate the expressivity gap between the EWS and both the signature and EFM on two SDE-based regression tasks.

Chain-of-thought reasoning, where language models expend additional computation by producing thinking tokens prior to final responses, has driven significant advances in model capabilities. However, training these reasoning models is extremely costly in terms of both data and compute, as it involves collecting long traces of reasoning behavior from humans or synthetic generators and further post-training the model via reinforcement learning. Are these costs fundamental, or can they be reduced through better algorithmic design? We show that autocurriculum, where the model uses its own performance to decide which problems to focus training on, provably improves upon standard training recipes for both supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL). For SFT, we show that autocurriculum requires exponentially fewer reasoning demonstrations than non-adaptive fine-tuning, by focusing teacher supervision on prompts where the current model struggles. For RL fine-tuning, autocurriculum decouples the computational cost from the quality of the reference model, reducing the latter to a burn-in cost that is nearly independent of the target accuracy. These improvements arise purely from adaptive data selection, drawing on classical techniques from boosting and learning from counterexamples, and requiring no assumption on the distribution or difficulty of prompts.

Striking an optimal balance between predictive performance and fairness continues to be a fundamental challenge in machine learning. In this work, we propose a post-processing framework that facilitates fairness-aware prediction by leveraging model ensembling. Designed to operate independently of any specific model internals, our approach is widely applicable across various learning tasks, model architectures, and fairness definitions. Through extensive experiments spanning classification, regression, and survival analysis, we demonstrate that the framework effectively enhances fairness while maintaining, or only minimally affecting, predictive accuracy.

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a Neural Network (NN) formulation of AR estimation by embedding the autoregressive structure directly into a feedforward NN, enabling coefficient estimation through backpropagation while preserving interpretability. Simulation experiments on 125,000 synthetic AR(p) time series with short-term dependence (1 <= p <= 5) show that the proposed NN-based method consistently recovers model coefficients for all series, while Conditional Maximum Likelihood (CML) fails to converge in approximately 55% of cases. When both methods converge, estimation accuracy is comparable with negligible differences in relative error, R2 and, perplexity/likelihood. However, when CML fails, the NN-based approach still provides reliable estimates. In all cases, the NN estimator achieves substantial computational gains, reaching a median speedup of 12.6x and up to 34.2x for higher model orders. Overall, results demonstrate that gradient-descent NN optimization can provide a fast and efficient alternative for interpretable AR parameter estimation.

This report examines numerical aspects of constructing Karhunen-Loève expansions (KLEs) for second-order stochastic processes. The KLE relies on the spectral decomposition of the covariance operator via the Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, which is then discretized on a computational grid, leading to an eigendecomposition task. We derive the algebraic equivalence between this Fredholm-based eigensolution and the singular value decomposition of the weight-scaled sample matrix, yielding consistent solutions for both model-based and data-driven KLE construction. Analytical eigensolutions for exponential and squared-exponential covariance kernels serve as reference benchmarks to assess numerical consistency and accuracy in 1D settings. The convergence of SVD-based eigenvalue estimates and of the empirical distributions of the KL coefficients to their theoretical $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ target are characterized as a function of sample count. Higher-dimensional configurations include a two-dimensional irregular domain discretized by unstructured triangular meshes with two refinement levels, and a three-dimensional toroidal domain whose non-simply-connected topology motivates a comparison between Euclidean and shortest interior path distances between the grid points. The numerical results highlight the interplay between the discretization strategy, quadrature rule, and sample count, and their impact on the KLE results.

Online social platforms increasingly rely on crowd-sourced systems to label misleading content at scale, but these systems must both aggregate users' evaluations and decide whose evaluations to trust. To address the latter, many platforms audit users by rewarding agreement with the final aggregate outcome, a design we term consensus-based auditing. We analyze the consequences of this design in X's Community Notes, which in September 2022 adopted consensus-based auditing that ties users' eligibility for participation to agreement with the eventual platform outcome. We find evidence of strategic conformity: minority contributors' evaluations drift toward the majority and their participation share falls on controversial topics, where independent signals matter most. We formalize this mechanism in a behavioral model in which contributors trade off private beliefs against anticipated penalties for disagreement. Motivated by these findings, we propose a two-stage auditing and aggregation algorithm that weights contributors by the stability of their past residuals rather than by agreement with the majority. The method first accounts for differences across content and contributors, and then measures how predictable each contributor's evaluations are relative to the latent-factor model. Contributors whose evaluations are consistently informative receive greater influence in aggregation, even when they disagree with the prevailing consensus. In the Community Notes data, this approach improves out-of-sample predictive performance while avoiding penalization of disagreement.

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a rapidly growing framework for combining machine learning predictions with a small set of gold-standard labels to conduct valid statistical inference. In this article, I argue that the core estimators underlying PPI are equivalent to well-established estimators from the survey sampling literature dating back to the 1970s. Specifically, the PPI estimator for a population mean is algebraically equivalent to the difference estimator of Cassel et al. (1976), and PPI plus corresponds to the generalized regression (GREG) estimator of Sarndal et al. (2003). Recognizing this equivalence, I consider what part of PPI is inherited from a long-standing literature in statistics, what part is genuinely new, and where inferential claims require care. After introducing the two frameworks and establishing their equivalence, I break down where PPI diverges from model-assisted estimation, including differences in the mode of inference, the role of the unlabeled data pool, and the consequences of differential prediction error for subgroup estimands such as the average treatment effect. I then identify what each framework offers the other: PPI researchers can draw on the survey sampling literature's well-developed theory of calibration, optimal allocation, and design-based diagnostics, while survey sampling researchers can benefit from PPI's extensions to non-standard estimands and its accessible software ecosystem. The article closes with a call for integration between these two communities, motivated by the growing use of large language models as measurement instruments in applied research.