Diffusion models often generate novel samples even when the learned score is only \emph{coarse} -- a phenomenon not accounted for by the standard view of diffusion training as density estimation. In this paper, we show that, under the \emph{manifold hypothesis}, this behavior can instead be explained by coarse scores capturing the \emph{geometry} of the data while discarding the fine-scale distributional structure of the population measure~$μ_{\scriptscriptstyle\mathrm{data}}$. Concretely, whereas estimating the full data distribution $μ_{\scriptscriptstyle\mathrm{data}}$ supported on a $k$-dimensional manifold is known to require the classical minimax rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(N^{-1/k})$, we prove that diffusion models trained with coarse scores can exploit the \emph{regularity of the manifold support} and attain a near-parametric rate toward a \emph{different} target distribution. This target distribution has density uniformly comparable to that of~$μ_{\scriptscriptstyle\mathrm{data}}$ throughout any $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\bigl(N^{-β/(4k)}\bigr)$-neighborhood of the manifold, where $β$ denotes the manifold regularity. Our guarantees therefore depend only on the smoothness of the underlying support, and are especially favorable when the data density itself is irregular, for instance non-differentiable. In particular, when the manifold is sufficiently smooth, we obtain that \emph{generalization} -- formalized as the ability to generate novel, high-fidelity samples -- occurs at a statistical rate strictly faster than that required to estimate the full population distribution~$μ_{\scriptscriptstyle\mathrm{data}}$.

We propose a neural network model for contextual regression in which the regression model depends on contextual features that determine the active submodel and an algorithm to fit the model. The proposed simple contextual neural network (SCtxtNN) separates context identification from context-specific regression, resulting in a structured and interpretable architecture with fewer parameters than a fully connected feed-forward network. We show mathematically that the proposed architecture is sufficient to represent contextual linear regression models using only standard neural network components. Numerical experiments are provided to support the theoretical result, showing that the proposed model achieves lower excess mean squared error and more stable performance than feed-forward neural networks with comparable numbers of parameters, while larger networks improve accuracy only at the cost of increased complexity. The results suggest that incorporating contextual structure can improve model efficiency while preserving interpretability.

Independent component analysis is a core framework within blind source separation for recovering latent source signals from observed mixtures under statistical independence assumptions. In this work, we propose PDGMM-VAE, a source-oriented variational autoencoder in which each latent dimension, interpreted explicitly as an individual source signal, is assigned its own Gaussian mixture model prior. Unlike conventional VAE formulations with a shared simple prior, the proposed framework imposes per-dimension heterogeneous prior constraints, enabling the model to capture diverse non-Gaussian source statistics and thereby promote source separation under a probabilistic encoder-decoder architecture. Importantly, the parameters of these per-dimension GMM priors are not fixed in advance, but are adaptively learned and automatically refined toward convergence together with the encoder and decoder parameters under the overall training objective. Within this formulation, the encoder serves as a demixing mapping from observations to latent sources, while the decoder reconstructs the observed mixtures from the inferred components. The proposed model provides a systematic study of an idea that had previously only been noted in our preliminary form, namely, equipping different latent sources with different GMM priors for ICA, and formulates it as a full VAE framework with end-to-end training and per-dimension prior learning. Experimental results on both linear and nonlinear mixing problems demonstrate that PDGMM-VAE can recover latent source signals and achieve satisfactory separation performance.

Recently, Forré (arXiv:2104.11547, 2021) introduced transitional conditional independence, a notion of conditional independence that provides a unified framework for both random and non-stochastic variables. The original paper establishes a strong global Markov property connecting transitional conditional independencies with suitable graphical separation criteria for directed mixed graphs with input nodes (iDMGs), together with a version of causal calculus for iDMGs in a general measure-theoretic setting. These notes aim to further illustrate the motivations behind this framework and its connections to the literature, highlight certain subtlies in the general measure-theoretic causal calculus, and extend the "one-line" formulation of the ID algorithm of Richardson et al. (Ann. Statist. 51(1):334--361, 2023) to the general measure-theoretic setting.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved impressive performance in graph-related tasks. However, they suffer from poor generalization on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, as they tend to learn spurious correlations. Such correlations present a phenomenon that GNNs fail to stably learn the mutual information between prediction representations and ground-truth labels under OOD settings. To address these challenges, we formulate a causal graph starting from the essence of node classification, adopt backdoor adjustment to block non-causal paths, and theoretically derive a lower bound for improving OOD generalization of GNNs. To materialize these insights, we further propose a novel approach integrating causal representation learning and a loss replacement strategy. The former captures node-level causal invariance and reconstructs graph posterior distribution. The latter introduces asymptotic losses of the same order to replace the original losses. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in OOD generalization and effectively alleviating the phenomenon of unstable mutual information learning.

Sentiment signals derived from sparse news are commonly used in financial analysis and technology monitoring, yet transforming raw article-level observations into reliable temporal series remains a largely unsolved engineering problem. Rather than treating this as a classification challenge, we propose to frame it as a causal signal reconstruction problem: given probabilistic sentiment outputs from a fixed classifier, recover a stable latent sentiment series that is robust to the structural pathologies of news data such as sparsity, redundancy, and classifier uncertainty. We present a modular three-stage pipeline that (i) aggregates article-level scores onto a regular temporal grid with uncertainty-aware and redundancy-aware weights, (ii) fills coverage gaps through strictly causal projection rules, and (iii) applies causal smoothing to reduce residual noise. Because ground-truth longitudinal sentiment labels are typically unavailable, we introduce a label-free evaluation framework based on signal stability diagnostics, information preservation lag proxies, and counterfactual tests for causality compliance and redundancy robustness. As a secondary external check, we evaluate the consistency of reconstructed signals against stock-price data for a multi-firm dataset of AI-related news titles (November 2024 to February 2026). The key empirical finding is a three-week lead lag pattern between reconstructed sentiment and price that persists across all tested pipeline configurations and aggregation regimes, a structural regularity more informative than any single correlation coefficient. Overall, the results support the view that stable, deployable sentiment indicators require careful reconstruction, not only better classifiers.

While the mathematical foundations of score-based generative models are increasingly well understood for unconstrained Euclidean spaces, many practical applications involve data restricted to bounded domains. This paper provides a statistical analysis of reflected diffusion models on the hypercube $[0,1]^D$ for target distributions supported on $d$-dimensional linear subspaces. A primary challenge in this setting is the absence of Gaussian transition kernels, which play a central role in standard theory in $\mathbb{R}^D$. By employing an easily implementable infinite series expansion of the transition densities, we develop analytic tools to bound the score function and its approximation by sparse ReLU networks. For target densities with Sobolev smoothness $α$, we establish a convergence rate in the $1$-Wasserstein distance of order $n^{-\frac{α+1-δ}{2α+d}}$ for arbitrarily small $δ> 0$, demonstrating that the generative algorithm fully adapts to the intrinsic dimension $d$. These results confirm that the presence of reflecting boundaries does not degrade the fundamental statistical efficiency of the diffusion paradigm, matching the almost optimal rates known for unconstrained settings.

In clustering, strong dominance in the size of a particular cluster is often undesirable, motivating a measure of cluster size uniformity that can be used to filter such partitions. A basic requirement of such a measure is stability: partitions that differ only slightly in their point assignments should receive similar uniformity scores. A difficulty arises because cluster labels are not fixed objects; algorithms may produce different numbers of labels even when the underlying point distribution changes very little. Measures defined directly over labels can therefore become unstable under label-count perturbations. I introduce the Mass Agreement Score (MAS), a point-centric metric bounded in [0, 1] that evaluates the consistency of expected cluster size as measured from the perspective of points in each cluster. Its construction yields fragment robustness by design, assigning similar scores to partitions with similar bulk structure while remaining sensitive to genuine redistribution of cluster mass.

We study the problem of detecting local geometry in random graphs. We introduce a model $\mathcal{G}(n, p, d, k)$, where a hidden community of average size $k$ has edges drawn as a random geometric graph on $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, while all remaining edges follow the Erdős--Rényi model $\mathcal{G}(n, p)$. The random geometric graph is generated by thresholding inner products of latent vectors on $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, with each edge having marginal probability equal to $p$. This implies that $\mathcal{G}(n, p, d, k)$ and $\mathcal{G}(n, p)$ are indistinguishable at the level of the marginals, and the signal lies entirely in the edge dependencies induced by the local geometry. We investigate both the information-theoretic and computational limits of detection. On the information-theoretic side, our upper bounds follow from three tests based on signed triangle counts: a global test, a scan test, and a constrained scan test; our lower bounds follow from two complementary methods: truncated second moment via Wishart--GOE comparison, and tensorization of KL divergence. These results together settle the detection threshold at $d = \widetildeΘ(k^2 \vee k^6/n^3)$ for fixed $p$, and extend the state-of-the-art bounds from the full model (i.e., $k = n$) for vanishing $p$. On the computational side, we identify a computational--statistical gap and provide evidence via the low-degree polynomial framework, as well as the suboptimality of signed cycle counts of length $\ell \geq 4$.

Standard masked discrete diffusion models face limitations in reasoning tasks due to their inability to correct their own mistakes on the masking path. Since they rely on a fixed number of denoising steps, they are unable to adjust their computation to the complexity of a given problem. To address these limitations, we introduce a method based on learning a Markov transition kernel that is trained on its own outputs. This design enables tokens to be remasked, allowing the model to correct its previous mistakes. Furthermore, we do not need a fixed time schedule but use a trained stopping criterion. This allows for adaptation of the number of function evaluations to the difficulty of the reasoning problem. Our adaptation adds two lightweight prediction heads, enabling reuse and fine-tuning of existing pretrained models. On the Sudoku-Extreme dataset we clearly outperform other flow based methods with a validity of 95%. For the Countdown-4 we only need in average of 10 steps to solve almost 96% of them correctly, while many problems can be solved already in 2 steps.