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Sequential Inference for Gaussian Processes: A Signal Processing Perspective

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that represent complex, nonlinear relationships with high predictive accuracy. Adapting these models often requires sequential inference, which differs both theoretically and methodologically from the usual paradigm of ML, where data are often assumed independent and identically distributed. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible yet principled framework for modeling random functions, and they have become increasingly relevant to SP as statistical and ML methods assume a more prominent role. We provide a self-contained, tutorial-style overview of GPs, with a particular focus on recent methodological advances in sequential, incremental, or streaming inference. We introduce these techniques from a signal-processing perspective while bridging them to recent advances in ML. Many of the developments we survey have direct applications to state-space modeling, sequential regression and forecasting, anomaly detection in time series, sequential Bayesian optimization, adaptive and active sensing, and sequential detection and decision-making. By organizing these advances from a signal-processing perspective, we intend to equip practitioners with practical tools and a coherent roadmap for deploying sequential GP models in real-world systems.



DeepMath - Deep Sequence Models for Premise Selection

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the effectiveness of neural sequence models for premise selection in automated theorem proving, one of the main bottlenecks in the formalization of mathematics. We propose a two stage approach for this task that yields good results for the premise selection task on the Mizar corpus while avoiding the handengineered features of existing state-of-the-art models. To our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning has been applied to theorem proving on a large scale.


Good Luck Getting a Mac Mini for the Next 'Several Months'

WIRED

Apple CEO Tim Cook told analysts that AI adoption has happened faster than expected. Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the company's earnings call on Thursday that it could take "several months" to meet skyrocketing demand for the Mac Mini, the company's compact but mighty, screen-free desktop computer. Cook's remarks come after coders determined in recent months that the Mac Mini was the perfect machine for agentic AI tasks. "On the Mac Mini and Mac Studio, both of these are amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools," Cook said on the earnings call, in response to analyst questions. "And customer adoption of that is happening faster than we expected." The news comes amid another record-setting quarter for the company.


High Dimensional Structured Superposition Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

High dimensional superposition models characterize observations using parameters which can be written as a sum of multiple component parameters, each with its own structure, e.g., sum of low rank and sparse matrices, sum of sparse and rotated sparse vectors, etc. In this paper, we consider general superposition models which allow sum of any number of component parameters, and each component structure can be characterized by any norm. We present a simple estimator for such models, give a geometric condition under which the components can be accurately estimated, characterize sample complexity of the estimator, and give high probability nonasymptotic bounds on the componentwise estimation error. We use tools from empirical processes and generic chaining for the statistical analysis, and our results, which substantially generalize prior work on superposition models, are in terms of Gaussian widths of suitable sets.


Regularized Nonlinear Acceleration

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe a convergence acceleration technique for generic optimization problems. Our scheme computes estimates of the optimum from a nonlinear average of the iterates produced by any optimization method. The weights in this average are computed via a simple and small linear system, whose solution can be updated online. This acceleration scheme runs in parallel to the base algorithm, providing improved estimates of the solution on the fly, while the original optimization method is running. Numerical experiments are detailed on classical classification problems.


Robustness of classifiers: from adversarial to random noise

Neural Information Processing Systems

Several recent works have shown that state-of-the-art classifiers are vulnerable to worst-case (i.e., adversarial) perturbations of the datapoints. On the other hand, it has been empirically observed that these same classifiers are relatively robust to random noise. In this paper, we propose to study a semi-random noise regime that generalizes both the random and worst-case noise regimes. We propose the first quantitative analysis of the robustness of nonlinear classifiers in this general noise regime. We establish precise theoretical bounds on the robustness of classifiers in this general regime, which depend on the curvature of the classifier's decision boundary. Our bounds confirm and quantify the empirical observations that classifiers satisfying curvature constraints are robust to random noise. Moreover, we quantify the robustness of classifiers in terms of the subspace dimension in the semi-random noise regime, and show that our bounds remarkably interpolate between the worst-case and random noise regimes. We perform experiments and show that the derived bounds provide very accurate estimates when applied to various state-of-the-art deep neural networks and datasets. This result suggests bounds on the curvature of the classifiers' decision boundaries that we support experimentally, and more generally offers important insights onto the geometry of high dimensional classification problems.


Verification Based Solution for Structured MAB Problems

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of finding the best arm in a stochastic Multi-armed Bandit (MAB) game and propose a general framework based on verification that applies to multiple well-motivated generalizations of the classic MAB problem. In these generalizations, additional structure is known in advance, causing the task of verifying the optimality of a candidate to be easier than discovering the best arm. Our results are focused on the scenario where the failure probability must be very low; we essentially show that in this high confidence regime, identifying the best arm is as easy as the task of verification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by applying it, and matching or improving the state-of-the art results in the problems of: Linear bandits, Dueling bandits with the Condorcet assumption, Copeland dueling bandits, Unimodal bandits and Graphical bandits.


How Deep is the Feature Analysis underlying Rapid Visual Categorization?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Rapid categorization paradigms have a long history in experimental psychology: Characterized by short presentation times and speeded behavioral responses, these tasks highlight the efficiency with which our visual system processes natural object categories. Previous studies have shown that feed-forward hierarchical models of the visual cortex provide a good fit to human visual decisions. At the same time, recent work in computer vision has demonstrated significant gains in object recognition accuracy with increasingly deep hierarchical architectures. But it is unclear how well these models account for human visual decisions and what they may reveal about the underlying brain processes. We have conducted a large-scale psychophysics study to assess the correlation between computational models and human behavioral responses on a rapid animal vs. non-animal categorization task. We considered visual representations of varying complexity by analyzing the output of different stages of processing in three stateof-the-art deep networks. We found that recognition accuracy increases with higher stages of visual processing (higher level stages indeed outperforming human participants on the same task) but that human decisions agree best with predictions from intermediate stages. Overall, these results suggest that human participants may rely on visual features of intermediate complexity and that the complexity of visual representations afforded by modern deep network models may exceed the complexity of those used by human participants during rapid categorization.