Training-free conditional diffusion provides a flexible alternative to task-specific conditional model training, but existing samplers often allocate computation inefficiently: independent guided trajectories can vary widely in quality, and additional function evaluations along a single trajectory may not recover from poor early decisions. We propose Tempered Guided Diffusion (TGD), an annealed sequential Monte Carlo framework for training-free conditional sampling with diffusion priors. TGD targets tempered posterior distributions over the clean signal, using noisy diffusion states only as auxiliary variables for proposing reconstructions and propagating particles. Particles are reweighted by incremental likelihood ratios, resampled, and propagated across noise levels, concentrating computation on trajectories plausible under both the prior and observation. Under idealized exact-reconstruction assumptions, full TGD yields a consistent particle approximation to the posterior as the number of particles grows. For expensive reconstruction tasks, Accelerated TGD (A-TGD) retains early particle exploration but prunes to a single high-likelihood trajectory partway through sampling. Experiments on a controlled two-dimensional inverse problem and image inverse problems show improved posterior approximation and favorable wall-clock speed-quality tradeoffs over independent multi-trajectory baselines.

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses. These biases affect key parameters such as variance, prevalence, correlation, slope, and explained variance. The root cause is that imputed values optimized for MSE are averages, which reduce the natural variability in the data. This paper demonstrates that adding noise to imputed values can effectively eliminate these biases. The required noise level is proportional to the MSE. Using a toy example in a multivariate normal setting, we compare two methods: predictive imputation, which minimizes MSE, and stochastic imputation, which incorporates random noise. Simulation results show that predictive methods systematically introduce bias, while stochastic methods preserve the data's natural variability and produce unbiased estimates. We also evaluate three popular imputation tools -- missForest, softImpute, and mice -- and observe consistent biases in predictive methods. These findings highlight that MSE is an inadequate measure of imputation quality, as it prioritizes accuracy over variability. Incorporating noise into imputation methods is essential to prevent biases and ensure valid downstream analyses, underscoring the importance of stochastic approaches for handling incomplete data.

We consider a novel algorithm, for the completion of partially observed low-rank tensors, as a generalization of matrix completion. The proposed low-rank tensor completion (TC) method builds on the conventional nuclear norm (NN) minimization-based low-rank TC paradigm, by leveraging the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) optimization framework. To that extend the original NN minimization problem is reformulated into multiple subproblems, which are then solved iteratively via closed-form proximal operators, making use of over-relaxation and an adaptive penalty parameter update scheme, to further speed up convergence and improve the overall performance of the method. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of the new method in terms of normalized mean square error (NMSE), compared to the conventional state-of-the-art (SotA) techniques, including NN minimization approaches, as well as a mixture of the latter with a matrix factorization approach, while its convergence can be significantly improved by initializing the algorithm with the solution of the SotA.

Multi Armed Bandit (MAB) algorithms are a cornerstone of reinforcement learning and have been studied both theoretically and numerically. One of the most commonly used implementation uses a softmax mapping to prescribe the optimal policy and served as the foundation for downstream algorithms, including REINFORCE. Distinct from vanilla approaches, we consider here the L2 regularized softmax policy gradient where a quadratic term is subtracted from the mean reward. Previous studies exploiting convexity failed to identify a suitable theoretical framework to analyze its convergence when the regularization parameter vanishes. We prove here theoretical convergence results and confirm empirically that this regime makes the L2 regularization numerically advantageous on standard benchmarks.

Transformers are effective at inferring the latent task from context via two inference modes: recognizing a task seen during training, and adapting to a novel one. Recent interpretability studies have identified from middle-layer representations task-specific directions, or task vectors, that steer model behavior. However, a lack of rigorous foundations hinders connecting internal representations to external model behavior: existing work fails to explain how task-vector geometry is shaped by the training distribution, and what geometry enables out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In this paper, we study these questions in a controlled synthetic setting by training small transformers from scratch on latent-task sequence distributions, which allows a principled mathematical characterization. We show that two inference modes can coexist within a single model. In-distribution behavior is governed by Bayesian task retrieval, implemented internally through convex combinations of learned task vectors. OOD behavior, by contrast, arises through extrapolative task learning, whose representations occupy a subspace nearly orthogonal to the task-vector subspace. Taken together, our results suggest that task-vector geometry, training distributions, and generalization behaviors are closely related.

We propose Conformal Seasonal Pools (CSP), a training-free probabilistic time-series forecaster that mixes same-season empirical draws with signed residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast. In an audited rolling-origin benchmark on the six time-series datasets where DeepNPTS was originally evaluated (electricity, exchange_rate, solar_energy, taxi, traffic, wikipedia), CSP-Adaptive significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on every metric we report -- CRPS (per-window paired Wilcoxon $p \approx 4 \times 10^{-10}$), normalized mean quantile loss ($p \approx 7 \times 10^{-10}$), and empirical 95% coverage ($p \approx 8 \times 10^{-45}$, mean 0.89 vs 0.66) -- while running over 500x faster on CPU. Coverage is the most decision-critical of these: a 0.95 nominal interval that contains the truth in only ~66% of cases fails the basic calibration desideratum and would not survive deployment in safety- or decision-critical settings. The failure mode is also more severe than aggregate coverage suggests: in the worst 10% of windows, DeepNPTS's prediction interval covers none of the H forecast horizons -- the entire multi-step trajectory misses the truth at every step simultaneously. This poses serious risk in safety- and decision-critical applications such as healthcare, finance, energy operations, and autonomous systems, where prediction intervals that systematically miss the truth across the entire planning horizon translate directly into misclassified patients, regulatory capital failures, grid imbalances, and safety-case violations. CSP achieves all of this with no learned parameters and no training. We argue training-free conformal samplers should be mandatory baselines when evaluating learned non-parametric forecasters.

Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GCSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GCSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the two cities. Finally, conformal prediction is integrated with GCSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.

The Brier score conflates two distinct properties of probabilistic predictions: reliability (calibration error) and resolution (discriminatory power). We introduce the Manokhin Probability Matrix, a BCG-style two-dimensional diagnostic framework that separates them. Classifiers are placed on a 2x2 grid by Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC expected rank, then assigned to one of four archetypes: Eagle (good on both axes), Bull (strong discrimination, poor calibration), Sloth (well-calibrated, weak discriminator), and Mole (poor on both). Each archetype carries a distinct prescription. We populate the matrix from a large-scale empirical study spanning 21 classifiers, 5 post-hoc calibrators, and 30 real-world binary classification tasks from the TabArena-v0.1 suite. The assignment is unambiguous. CatBoost, TabICL, EBM, TabPFN, GBC, and Random Forest are Eagles. XGBoost, LightGBM, and HGB are Bulls; Venn-Abers calibration cuts log-loss by 6.5 to 12.6% on Bulls but degrades Eagles by 2.1%. SVM, LR, LDA, and the empirical base-rate predictor are Sloths. MLP, KNN, Naive Bayes, and ExtraTrees are Moles. A theoretical asymmetry follows: no order-preserving post-hoc calibrator can add discriminatory power (Proposition 1), so calibration is the fixable part and discrimination is the hard part. The practical rule is direct: do not optimise aggregate Brier score without first decomposing it; optimise discrimination first, then fix calibration post-hoc. Code and raw experimental data are available at https://github.com/valeman/classifier_calibration.

We study the $(\varepsilon, δ)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high computational cost, rendering them hard to implement, and also suffer from suboptimal dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. We propose a randomized and computationally efficient algorithm for best policy identification that combines posterior sampling with an online learning algorithm to guide exploration in the MDP. Our method achieves asymptotic optimality in sample complexity, also in terms of posterior contraction rate, and runs in $O(S^2AH)$ per episode, matching standard model-based approaches. Unlike prior algorithms such as MOCA and PEDEL, our guarantees remain meaningful in the asymptotic regime and avoid sub-optimal polynomial dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. Our results provide both theoretical insights and practical tools for efficient policy identification in tabular MDPs.

Survival analysis on tabular data is a well-studied problem. However, existing deep learning methods are often highly task-specific, which can limit the transfer of new approaches from other domains and introduce constraints that may affect performance. We propose TabSurv, an approach that adapts modern tabular architectures to survival analysis using either the Weibull distribution or non-parametric survival prediction. TabSurv optimizes SurvHL, a novel histogram loss function supporting censored data. In addition to a baseline feed-forward network, we implement deep ensembles of MLPs for survival analysis within TabSurv. In contrast to prior work, the ensemble components are trained in parallel, optimizing survival distribution parameters before averaging, which promotes diversity across ensemble component predictions. We perform a comprehensive empirical evaluation of different proposed architectures on 10 diverse real-world survival datasets. Our results show that TabSurv consistently outperforms on average established classical and deep learning baselines, such as RSF, DeepSurv, DeepHit, SurvTRACE. Notably, deep ensembles with Weibull parametrization instead of non-parametric models achieve the highest average rank by C-index. Overall, our study clarifies how modern tabular neural networks can be adapted and trained to tackle survival analysis problems, offering a strong and reliable approach. The TabSurv implementation is publicly available.