In deep networks with small initialization, training exhibits long plateaus separated by sharp feature-acquisition transitions. Whereas shallow nonlinear networks and deep linear networks are well studied, extending these analyses to deep nonlinear networks remains challenging. We derive an exact identity for the imbalance of Frobenius norms of layer weight matrices that holds for any smooth activation and any differentiable loss and use this to classify activation functions into four universality classes. On the permutation-symmetric submanifold, the identity combines with an approximate balance law to reduce the full matrix flow to a scalar ODE, giving a critical-depth escape time law $τ_\star = Θ(\varepsilon^{-(r-2)})$ governed by the number $r$ of layers at the bottleneck scale rather than the total depth $L$. We find that this same $r-2$ exponent is recovered under He-normal initialization with $r$ bottleneck layers rescaled by $\varepsilon$, where the symmetry manifold is preserved by the flow but not attracting. We find close agreement between our theory and numerical simulations.

We derive a Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm for the quadratic dual problem arising from $\varepsilon$-SVR~\cite{Vapnik1995, Drucker1997, Smola2004} modified to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)~\cite{Makridakis1993, Hyndman2006} directly in the loss function~\cite{benavides2025support}. This formulation is part of a broader family of SVR models with percentage-error losses that also includes least-squares variants~\cite{Suykens2002} and symmetric-kernel extensions~\cite{Espinoza2005}, whose unified structure is studied in~\cite{benavides2026unified}. The key structural difference from standard $\varepsilon$-SVR is that the box constraints become \emph{sample-dependent}: $α_k, α_k^* \in [0,\, 100C/y_k]$. We show that this modification affects only (i) the feasibility sets $\Iup$ and $\Idown$ in the working-set selection and (ii) the clipping bounds in the analytic two-variable update, while leaving the curvature formula and gradient update structurally identical to the standard SMO~\cite{Platt1998, Platt1999, Fan2005}. A shrinking heuristic adapted to the sample-dependent bounds is derived and shown to introduce an asymmetry between $α$- and $α^*$-variables controlled by the gap $2y_k\varepsilon/100$. The same solver applies to the symmetric-kernel variant (m2) by replacing $Ω$ with $Ω_s = \tfrac{1}{2}(Ω+ aΩ^*)$~\cite{Espinoza2005}. Numerical validation against an interior-point QP reference solver confirms solution agreement to within solver termination tolerance across ten synthetic configurations spanning both kernel variants and symmetry types. An implementation is available in the open-source \texttt{psvr} R package~\cite{BenavidesHerrera2026Rpsvr}.

We present a novel theoretical framework, Q-MMR, for off-policy evaluation in finite-horizon MDPs. Q-MMR learns a set of scalar weights, one for each data point, such that the reweighted rewards approximate the expected return under the target policy. The weights are learned inductively in a top-down manner via a moment matching objective against a value-function discriminator class. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, a data-dependent finite-sample guarantee for general function approximation can be established under only the realizability of $Q^π$, with a dimension-free bound -- that is, the error does not depend on the statistical complexity of the function class. We also establish connections to several existing methods, such as importance sampling and linear FQE. Further theoretical analyses shed new light on the nature of coverage, a concept of fundamental importance to offline RL.

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

Neural networks are trained by minimizing loss functions with gradient-based optimizers. Cohen et al. [2021] observed that full-batch gradient descent operates at the edge of stability (EoS): the largest eigenvalue of the Hessian, called the sharpness, first rises (a phase called progressive sharpening) and then hovers at the stability threshold 2/η where η is the learning rate. Cohen et al. [2022] extended this picture to momentum methods and adaptive gradient methods, showing that each optimizer exhibits its own edge of stability. Rather than hovering at 2/η, the relevant quantity--the preconditioned sharpness--hovers at a hyperparameter-dependent threshold that depends on the optimizer (Table 2). In practice, the dominant optimizer in machine learning is Adam [Kingma and Ba, 2015], which differs from gradient descent in two respects.

We study the spectral properties of sample covariance matrices constructed from pooled sequence representations, where token embeddings are drawn from a fixed two-class Gaussian mixture table and pooled via (fixed) attention weights. Working in the high-dimensional regime $d,V,N\to\infty$ with $d/V\toδ$ and $d/N\toγ$, we derive exact characterizations of the limiting eigenvalue distribution, outlier eigenvalues, and eigenvector alignment with the hidden signal. The bulk spectrum follows a non-Marchenko--Pastur law given by the free multiplicative convolution $κ(MP_δ\boxtimes MP_γ)$, reflecting the finite vocabulary structure. Signal recovery undergoes two successive BBP-type phase transitions characterized by the scalars: $δ,γ,α=w^{\top} R w$ and $κ=\|w\|^2$, where $w$ denotes the attention pooling weights and $R$ the positional correlation matrix. An aftermath of our analysis demonstrates that the optimal attention weights maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio $α/κ$ are given by the (normalized) top eigenvector of $R$, and we show (as a particular case of our analysis) that parameter-free causal self-attention with $τ/d$ score scaling yields deterministic harmonic weights that improve signal recovery over mean pooling whenever early tokens carry more signal. Extensive simulations confirm sharp agreement between theory and finite-dimensional experiments.

Time-varying networks arise in a variety of ubiquitous applications, such as functional brain connectivity [Thompson et al., 2017, Zhang et al., 2020], gene and genomic regulatory processes [Zhang and Cao, 2017, Bartlett et al., 2021], and social or economic environments [Snijders et al., 2010, Kolar et al., 2010]. In these contexts, measurements collected at different time points record how observed connections fluctuate, forming a sequence of network snapshots that reflect the temporal evolution of the underlying system. For example, fMRI studies yield time-indexed measurements of activity across brain regions, from which researchers construct connectivity networks that change over the scanning period [Bassett et al., 2011, Rubinov and Sporns, 2010]. Similarly, in political systems such as the U.S. Senate, legislative cosponsorship records give rise to network snapshots that naturally vary across sessions [Fowler, 2006, Kirkland and Gross, 2014]. General reviews of time-varying network analysis, including methodological developments and representative applications, are provided in Holme and Saram aki [2012] and Kim et al. [2018].

The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is a cornerstone statistic for nonparametric two-sample testing, but its test power is dictated entirely by the chosen kernel. Because any fixed kernel inherently fails to distinguish certain distributions, the kernel must be dynamically optimized. However, data-driven optimization violates the foundational i.i.d. assumption, forcing a strict trade-off in existing frameworks. Ratio criteria ignore this dependence, inducing overfitting and variance collapse on rich kernel classes. Conversely, aggregation methods bypass the dependence using finite grids, but this strategy cannot scale to continuous search spaces like deep kernels. To break this dichotomy, we establish data-driven kernel selection as a model selection problem. We propose Complexity-Penalized MMD (CP-MMD), a criterion derived by applying the two-sample uniform concentration inequality of preceding works to the post-optimization MMD problem. The resulting penalty bounds the empirical MMD by the complexity of the kernel search space, mathematically absorbing the cost of optimization, so that CP-MMD enables direct, grid-free maximization over continuous parametric classes, including scalar bandwidths, polynomial feature bandwidths, and deep network parameters. By formally accounting for optimization complexity, we prove that CP-MMD maximizes true test power while ensuring unconditional Type-I validity. Consequently, CP-MMD enables grid-free kernel selection across linear, polynomial-feature, and deep regimes, matching or exceeding state-of-the-art test power.

LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation has become a standard tool for assessing base model performance. However, characterizing performance via the naive estimator, i.e., raw judge outputs, is systematically biased. Recent work has proposed estimators to correct this bias, but their reliability depends critically on judge quality and, for model comparisons, on calibration stability. Sharing calibration across compared models is practically attractive but can introduce severe bias, including cases where the comparison estimate points in the wrong direction with high apparent confidence. We study these failure modes through analytical results, simulations over judge quality ($J$) and cross-model calibration instability ($ΔJ$), and a real-data MMLU-Pro case study with sign reversal. We propose $J$ and $ΔJ$ as diagnostics for when corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, are likely unreliable, and provide reporting guidance for LaaJ evaluation.

This paper presents a parametric solution to piecewise linear regression through the Adaptive Block Gradient Descent (ABGD) algorithm. The heart of the method is the parametrization of piecewise linear functions as the difference of max-affine (DoMA) functions. A non-asymptotic local convergence analysis for ABGD is provided under sub-Gaussian covariate and noise distributions. To initialize ABGD, we adapt a prior algorithm originally developed for the simpler setting of max-affine functions. When suitably initialized, ABGD converges linearly to an $ε$-accurate estimate given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\max(σ_z/ε,1)^2)$ observations where $σ_z^2$ denotes the noise variance. This implies exact recovery given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d)$ samples in the noiseless case. Also, such a rate is shown to be minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. Synthetic numerical results corroborate the theoretical guarantees for ABGD. We also observe competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets.