Zador's celebrated theorem is a cornerstone of optimal quantisation, establishing both the weak limit of the empirical distribution of an $n$-point optimal quantiser in $R^d$ and the decay rate of the associated $L_s$-mean quantisation error. However, for large dimensions $d$, observing this asymptotic behaviour demands an astronomically large sample size $n$, which grows super-exponentially with $d$. Through a detailed analysis of the quantisation problem for spherically symmetric distributions, we demonstrate that for moderate $n$ random quantisers uniformly distributed on a sphere of suitable radius $r$ achieve exceptional performance. The expected distortion, expressed as a triple integral, can be computed with arbitrary precision, and the optimal radius $r$ can be efficiently determined numerically. Leveraging results from extreme-value theory, we derive approximations for $r$, particularly in scenarios where $n$ scales with $d$. Depending on the growth rate of $n$, $r$ may either converge to zero or approach a limiting value that is independent of $s$.

We establish the first population risk bounds for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) trained by mini-batch SGD with gradient clipping, covering non-private SGD as well as differentially private SGD (DP-SGD) with Gaussian perturbations that interpolate between independent and temporally correlated noise. This setting is substantially closer to practice than prior KAN theory along two axes: training is by mini-batch SGD, the standard recipe for modern networks, rather than full-batch gradient descent (GD); and correlated-noise mechanisms have empirically shown a more favorable privacy-utility tradeoff than independent-noise mechanisms. Our results cover the corresponding full-batch GD and independent-noise DP-GD results for KANs by Wang et al. (2026), while yielding sharper fixed-second-layer specializations. The technical core is a new analysis route for correlated-noise DP training in the non-convex regime. Temporal dependence breaks the conditional-centering structure underlying standard one-step SGD arguments, and the projection step obstructs the exact cancellation structure of correlated perturbations. We address these difficulties through an auxiliary unprojected dynamics, a shifted iterate that absorbs the current noise perturbation, and a high-probability bootstrap certifying projection inactivity. Combining this optimization analysis with a stability-based generalization argument yields the stated population risk bounds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first optimization and population risk analysis of a correlated-noise mechanism for DP training beyond convex learning, in particular for neural networks.

Reinforcement learning agents for portfolio management are typically trained and deployed as static policies, with no mechanism for using price forecasts at inference time. We propose $\text{FPILOT}$ (**Fin**ancial **P**lugin **I**nference-time **L**earning for **O**ptimal **T**rading), a plugin inference-time optimization framework inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC). Our key structural insight is that future prices mostly do not depend on one agent's portfolio allocation, so a suitable predictive model can produce a multi-step price trajectory without iterative action-conditioned rollouts as in typical reinforcement learning. At each decision step, we use the forecaster's predicted price trajectory to construct an allocation-based imagined return objective, and optimize the policy at inference-time before executing one step of the trade. Our framework is compatible with any pre-trained agent and adapts the policy to the forecaster's predictions without any retraining. Evaluated across five policy learning algorithms on the TradeMaster DJ30 benchmark, $\text{FPILOT}$ produces consistent improvements in total return and return-based risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar), with stochastic policies benefiting more than deterministic ones. Further, using synthetic forecasts at calibrated quality levels, we show that gains consistently improve with forecaster quality, suggesting that our performance will improve based on advances in financial forecasting.

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically focus on a single coverage level and do not ensure consistency across multiple confidence levels. In many real-world applications, such as weather forecasting, macroeconomic prediction, and risk management, different users operate under heterogeneous risk tolerances and require calibrated uncertainty estimates across a range of coverage levels. In such settings, it is desirable to produce prediction sets corresponding to different coverage levels that are nested and valid simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two novel online conformal prediction methods that output \emph{nested prediction sets} across a range of coverage levels, enabling simultaneous uncertainty quantification across the entire risk spectrum. Beyond interpretability, jointly estimating multiple coverage levels is known to improve statistical efficiency in classical quantile regression by enforcing non-crossing constraints and sharing information across quantiles. Our approaches leverage an online optimization perspective with small regret that translates to quantile estimation error control while enforcing nestedness of prediction sets. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, including applications in forecasting tasks with heterogeneous risk requirements, demonstrate that our method achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency compared to existing online conformal baselines.

Length-dependent logit rescaling is widely used to stabilize long-context self-attention, but existing analyses and methods suggest conflicting inverse-temperature laws for the context length $n$, ranging from $(\log n)^{1/2}$ to $\log n$ and $(\log n)^2$. We provide a general theory showing that the desirable scale is determined by the gap-counting function $N_n$ of each attention row. Counting how many competitors lie within each gap from the maximum, we define an upper-tail accumulation scale and prove that it gives the critical inverse-temperature scale for softmax concentration: below this scale, the top competitors remain unseparated, whereas above it, the attention entropy collapses. This framework unifies prior scaling laws as different $N_n$ and yields a direct diagnostic for attention-score families, from idealized theoretical models to more practical transformers.

It has been recently shown that e-processes are sufficient for sequential testing in the following sense: every level-$α$ sequential test can be obtained by thresholding an e-process at $1/α$. However, in the above result, neither does the test have to be asymptotically optimal (in terms of stopping times) nor does the e-process have to be asymptotically log-optimal. It has separately been shown that asymptotically log-optimal e-processes yield asymptotically optimal sequential tests. In this paper, we prove the converse, arguably completing the story: it is possible to aggregate asymptotically optimal sequential tests into asymptotically log-optimal e-processes. This is accomplished by using a new class of WAIT e-processes: those that are Weighted Aggregates of Indicators of stopping Times that begin at zero, are nondecreasing and increase to infinity under the alternative at the optimal rate. Importantly, the paper discusses several nuances in the varied definitions of asymptotic (log-)optimality.

Given a generalist model, learning a task-relevant specialist representation is fundamental for downstream applications. Identifiability, the asymptotic guarantee of recovering the ground-truth representation, is critical because it sets the ultimate limit of any model, even with infinite data and computation. We study this problem in a completely nonparametric setting, without relying on interventions, parametric forms, or structural constraints. We first prove that the structure between time steps and tasks is identifiable in a fully unsupervised manner, even when sequences lack strict temporal dependence and may exhibit disconnections, and task assignments can follow arbitrarily complex and interleaving structures. We then prove that, within each time step, the task-relevant latent representation can be disentangled from the irrelevant part under a simple sparsity regularization, without any additional information or parametric constraints. Together, these results establish a hierarchical foundation: task structure is identifiable across time steps, and task-relevant latent representations are identifiable within each step. To our knowledge, each result provides a first general nonparametric identifiability guarantee, and together they mark a step toward provably moving from generalist to specialist models.

Large language models (LLMs) are pretrained by minimizing the cross-entropy loss for next-token prediction. In this paper, we study whether this optimization strategy can induce geometric structure in the learned model weights and context embeddings. We approach this problem by analyzing a constrained layer-peeled optimization program, which serves as a mathematically tractable surrogate for LLMs by treating the output projection matrix and last-layer context embeddings as optimization variables. Our analysis of this nonconvex optimization program demonstrates that symmetries in the target next-token distributions are transferred to the global minimizers of the layer-peeled model in a precise group-theoretic sense. Specifically, we prove that when the target tokens exhibit a cyclic-shift symmetry (such as the seven days of the week or the twelve months of the year), the optimal logit matrix is exactly circulant, and the Gram matrices of both the output projections and the context embeddings form circulant geometries as well. Next, for exchangeable target distributions invariant under the symmetric group and, more generally, under two-transitive group actions, we show that the global optimal output projection matrix forms a simplex equiangular tight frame, while the optimal logit matrix and context embeddings inherit the permutation symmetries present in the input data. A key technical step is to reduce the constrained nonconvex factorized problem to an explicit logit-level convex characterization for cyclic symmetry and to a symmetry-based lower bound for permutation symmetry, together with a sharp characterization of the optimal factorization. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that open-source LLMs naturally exhibit symmetries consistent with our theoretical predictions, despite being trained without any explicit regularization promoting such geometric structure.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Calibrated probability outputs of trained classifiers are increasingly used as inputs to downstream regression estimands such as effects, prevalences, or disparities for a latent group observed only on a small labelled subset. A standard practice is to threshold the calibrated score at a confidence cutoff and treat the hard label as the truth. Building on a recent identification result for the underlying moment equation, we develop a calibration-aware diagnostic apparatus for pseudo-labelling pipelines. We derive a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias that confidence thresholding induces in the downstream regression coefficient, and show that the bias can be predicted, before any inference is run, from the residual score variance $V^{*}=\mathbb{E}[\operatorname{Var}(p\mid X)]$ on the unlabelled set after partialling out the downstream controls $X$. We further obtain a sharp sensitivity bound under bounded calibration drift, and identify the boundary $V^{*}=0$, which holds iff $p$ is a deterministic function of $X$; this motivates a structural separation between classifier features $W$ and downstream controls $X\subsetneq W$. Five controlled simulations and a UCI Adult illustration trace the predictions. The contribution is operational: a $(V^{*}, κ)$ decision rule that practitioners can compute from any classifier output to decide whether confidence thresholding is safe.