Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have increasingly relied on reinforcement learning (RL) to improve their reasoning capabilities. Three types of approaches have been widely adopted: The first relies on a deep neural network to estimate the value function of the learning policy in order to reduce the variance of the policy gradient. However, estimating and maintaining such a value network incurs substantial computational and memory overhead. The second avoids training a value network by approximating the value function using sample averages. However, it samples a large number of reasoning traces per prompt for accurate value function approximation, making it computationally expensive. The third samples only a single reasoning trajectory per prompt, which reduces computational cost but suffers from poor sample efficiency. This paper focuses on a practical, resource-constrained setting in which only a small number of reasoning traces can be sampled per prompt, while low-variance gradient estimation remains essential for high-quality policy learning. To address this challenge, we bring classical nonparametric statistical methods, which are both computationally and statistically efficient, to LLM reasoning. We employ kernel smoothing as a concrete example for value function estimation and the subsequent policy optimization. Numerical and theoretical results demonstrate that our proposal achieves accurate value and gradient estimation, leading to improved policy optimization.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a core post-training step for aligning large language models, yet the reward signal used in RLHF is only a learned proxy for true human utility. From an operations research perspective, this creates a decision problem under objective misspecification: the policy is optimized against an estimated reward, while deployment performance is determined by an unobserved objective. The resulting gap leads to reward over-optimization, or Goodharting, where proxy reward continues to improve even after true quality deteriorates. Existing mitigations address this problem through uncertainty penalties, pessimistic rewards, or conservative constraints, but they can be computationally burdensome and overly pessimistic. We propose Wasserstein distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO) for RLHF. Instead of pessimizing worst-case value as in standard DRO, DRRO pessimizes worst-case regret relative to the best policy under the same plausible reward perturbation. We study the promptwise problem through a simplex allocation model and show that, under an $\ell_1$-ground-cost Wasserstein ambiguity set, the inner worst-case regret admits an exact solution and the optimal policy has a water-filling structure. These results lead to a practical policy-gradient algorithm with a simple sampled-bonus interpretation and only minor changes to GRPO-style RLHF training. The framework also clarifies theoretically why DRRO is less pessimistic than DRO, and our experiments show that DRRO mitigates over-optimization more effectively than existing baselines while standard DRO is systematically over-pessimistic.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) excels at finding general-purpose latent representations from complex data, yet lacks a unifying theoretical framework that explains the diverse existing methods and guides the design of new ones. We cast SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): learning representations that maximize their log-probability under an assumed latent model (alignment), while maximizing latent entropy to prevent collapse (uniformity). This view unifies independent component analysis with contrastive, non-contrastive, and predictive SSL methods, including stop gradient approaches. Leveraging LDM, we derive a nonlinear, sampling-free Bayesian filtering model with a Kalman-based predictor for high-dimensional timeseries. We further prove that predictive LDM yields identifiable latent representations under mild assumptions, even with nonlinear predictors. Overall, LDM clarifies the assumptions behind established SSL methods and provides principled guidance for developing new approaches.

Over-the-air federated learning (OTA-FL) reduces uplink latency by aggregating client updates directly over the wireless multiple-access channel. Coherent analog aggregation realizes this idea by aligning the phases and amplitudes of simultaneously transmitted waveforms, which typically requires synchronization, instantaneous channel-state information (CSI), phase compensation, and power control. Noncoherent energy detection removes the need for phase-coherent combining, but a single energy measurement is nonnegative and, therefore, cannot represent signed model updates. This paper introduces resource-element energy difference (REED), a noncoherent physical-layer primitive for continuous signed aggregation. REED maps the positive and negative parts of each real-valued update to transmit energies on paired orthogonal resource elements and estimates the signed sum by subtracting the corresponding received energies. The construction uses slow-timescale calibration of average channel powers, but does not require instantaneous transmitter- or receiver-side CSI or channel inversion. For independent Rayleigh fading, we derive exact first- and second-moment expressions for single-shot REED and for a chip-diverse extension that spreads each coordinate over multiple independently faded paired chips. The resulting variance laws separate fading-induced self-noise, signal-noise interaction, and receiver-noise fluctuation, giving an explicit diversity-resource tradeoff. More->The rest of abstract is in the paper.

The population dynamics of molecules, cells, and organisms are governed by a number of unknown forces. In the last decade, population dynamics have predominantly been modeled with Wasserstein gradient flows. However, since gradient flows minimize free energy, they fail to capture important dynamical properties, such as periodicity. In this work, we propose a change in perspective by considering dynamics that minimize a population-level action under a damped Wasserstein Lagrangian. By deriving the corresponding Hamiltonian equations of motion, we formalize Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics, a structured class of second-order dynamics that encompasses classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and gradient flows. We then propose WLM as the first algorithm that learns these second-order dynamics from observed marginals, without specifying the Lagrangian. By directly learning the population mechanics, WLM can both forecast and interpolate unseen marginals, and outperforms existing gradient flow and flow matching methods across a wide range of dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.

Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism $f_{\widehat Y}$ for an outcome variable $Y$, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.

Preprocessing screening is often the most expensive part of a near-infrared spectroscopy calibration workflow. It works because smoothing, derivatives, detrending and related filters change the spectral directions seen by PLS or Ridge regression, but a full external search repeatedly refits nearly the same linear model. This paper studies the case where that search can be collapsed into one calibration step. For strict linear preprocessing operators, the transformed PLS cross-covariance satisfies (X A^T)^T Y = A X^T Y, and Ridge regression depends on the operator-induced kernel X A^T A X^T. These identities allow a finite operator bank to be screened inside the model while retaining original-wavelength coefficients. Sample-adaptive or fitted corrections such as SNV, MSC, EMSC and ASLS remain fold-local branches, not absorbed into the algebra. The study uses the AOM benchmark cohort: 61 regression rows and 17 classification rows in the manifest. On the main regression denominator (N=32), plain compact-bank AOM-PLS records median RMSEP ratios of 0.991 against PLS-default and 0.990 against PLS-HPO; the selected ASLS-AOM-compact-cv5 branch records 0.985 and 1.002 on the same two references. The plain AOMRidge-global-compact-none baseline records 0.974 against Ridge-default and 0.984 against Ridge-HPO, while the selected AOMRidge-Blender-headline-spxy3 records 0.918 and 0.966. The selected classifier, AOM-PLS-DA-global-simpls-covariance, improves balanced accuracy by 0.159 on N=13 datasets with 12/13 wins. The runtime gap is the practical result: PLS-HPO takes a median total time of 710.81 s per run, whereas the selected AOM-PLS branch takes 1.63 s. Linear operator-adaptive calibration therefore gives comparable prediction quality to exhaustive preprocessing screening, with orders-of-magnitude less fitting time for PLS.

Medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction is difficult because future clinical scores can remain tied to baseline severity, while biomarker histories are irregular and incompletely observed. We develop an anchor-based analysis of 24-month Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) change using harmonized Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) tables. Each labeled sample is anchored at a mild cognitive impairment visit, uses only clinical and biomarker history observed at or before that anchor, and defines the response as CDR-SB at the future visit closest to 24 months within an 18--30 month window minus anchor CDR-SB. The analytic cohort contains 2,600 labeled anchors from 858 participants and 7,276 longitudinal rows. We propose a residual gap-aware transformer that combines a mixed-effects statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning from pre-anchor clinical and biomarker histories. The model uses participant-level random intercepts in the mixed-effects reference, observation-level triplet tokenization for irregular histories, and a learned nonnegative time-gap penalty inside self-attention. We compare the proposed model with a Bayesian-information-criterion-selected linear mixed-effects baseline, GRU-D, and STraTS under repeated participant-level train--test splits. Across five participant-level random seeds, the proposed model achieves the best mean test performance across all reported metrics, reducing MSE by 13.1% and increasing prediction--observation correlation by 26.4% relative to the mixed-effects baseline. It also improves over both GRU-D and STraTS in mean error and correlation. These results show that statistical anchoring and gap-aware residual learning provide a useful structure for medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automated evaluators of AI systems, including in high-stakes applications. In this role, LLMs are used to generate judgments about the quality, appropriateness, or even safety of model outputs. This approach is motivated by practical constraints. Expert human ratings are costly and difficult to scale, whereas LLM ratings can be produced quickly at low cost. However, current approaches to deploying LLM evaluators are ad hoc, typically limited to reporting agreement metrics between human and LLM judges as a justification for substitution of human ratings, and lack a formal basis for study design. This paper (1) shifts the role of the LLM judge from substitutive to auxiliary, and (2) formulates the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm as one of augmenting human evaluation through a two-stage sampling design, where LLM evaluations are measured for all observations at the first stage and human ratings are partially observed for a subsample at the second stage. We propose to use a doubly robust estimator from the missing data literature, which takes advantage of the robustness property against the prediction model, since the missingness model is known by design. Using the asymptotic variance of this estimator, we propose how sample sizes of human and LLM ratings can be determined to achieve a targeted level of power. We also show that a study can be efficiently designed by allocating more human ratings for types of evaluations where the predictability of LLM ratings is not high. To the best of our knowledge, there is very little guidance on how much human oversight should be retained when validating benchmarks.

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.