Characterizing precisely the asymptotic generalization error of neural networks using parameters that can be estimated efficiently is a crucial problem in machine learning, which relies heavily on heuristics and practitioners' intuition to make key design choices. In order to mitigate this issue, we introduce the Representation Gap, a metric closely related to the generalization error, but admitting better-behaved asymptotic dynamics. Focusing on equivariant diffusion models and leveraging results from optimal quantization and point-process theory, we derive a precise asymptotic equivalent of the Representation Gap and show that it is governed by a single parameter, the \textit{intrinsic dimension} of the task, which is easy to interpret, efficient to estimate, and can be linked to the equivariances of common neural network architectures. We show that this asymptotic dynamic also extends to a broader range of tasks and training algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that our asymptotic law and intrinsic dimension estimation are accurate on a wide range of synthetic datasets, where these quantities are known, as well as on more realistic datasets, where we obtain results consistent with the related literature.

Logged advertising auctions make offline reserve-price evaluation attractive but risky. Replay tables can identify policies with large apparent yield gains, yet they can also hide weak threshold support, multiple-comparison effects, subgroup harm, and bidder-response uncertainty. Existing replay and off-policy evaluation methods estimate or rank policy values, but they do not directly answer the operational question of whether the available evidence is strong enough to justify validation. This paper develops a support-aware offline decision framework for reserve-policy selection. Rather than outputting a single point-estimate winner, the framework converts logged evidence into a conservative decision object consisting of certified policies, statistically dominated alternatives, and unresolved candidates requiring further validation. The main theoretical result gives a unified finite-catalog guarantee showing that, under simultaneous uncertainty control and conservative support gates, the framework preserves the best gate-passing policy while eliminating only policies with certified regret. Supporting results characterize support-localized replay generalization, establish information-theoretic threshold-resolution limits, and quantify when heterogeneous bidder response can overturn localized replay rankings. Experiments on iPinYou real-time-bidding logs show that the leading reserve rule achieves a 47.66% replay lift in season two, a 40.71% simultaneous lower-bound lift, and a 43.87% frozen out-of-time replay lift in season three. The framework reduces a 19-policy catalog to a two-policy validation shortlist while certifying non-harm across 44 advertiser, exchange, and region segments. The results support the central claim that offline reserve-policy evaluation should produce certified validation decisions rather than point-estimate rankings alone.

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in finite discounted MDPs, where a generative model of the MDP is assumed to be available. We consider a family or risk measures called the optimized certainty equivalent (OCE), which includes important risk measures such as entropic risk, CVaR, and mean-variance. Our focus is on the sample complexities of learning the optimal state-action value function (value learning) and an optimal policy (policy learning) under recursive OCE. We provide an exact characterization of utility functions $u$ for which the corresponding OCE defines an objective that is PAC-learnable. We analyze a simple model-based approach and derive PAC sample complexity bounds. We establish that whenever $u$ does not have full domain $\text{dom}(u)\neq \mathbb{R}$, the corresponding problem is not PAC-learnable. Finally, we establish corresponding lower bounds for both value and policy learning, demonstrating tightness in the size $SA$ of state-action space, and for a more restricted class of utilities, we derive lower bounds that makes the dependence on the effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-γ}$ explicit. Specifically, for $\text{CVaR}_τ$ we show that the correct dependence on $τ$ is $\frac{1}{τ^2}$, thus improving by a factor of $\frac{1}τ$ over state-of-the-art although our bound has a suboptimal dependence on $\frac{1}{1-γ}$.

Reliable deployment of machine learning models requires reasoning under epistemic uncertainty--the ability to recognize when the operating distribution has shifted beyond the scope of what was encountered during training. This challenge is central to test-time adaptation (TTA), a paradigm in which a model pretrained on source distribution Ps receives unlabeled data from a target distribution Pt = Ps at deployment time. Existing TTA methods (Wang et al., 2021; Niu et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022a; Yuan et al., 2023; Su et al., 2022) improve accuracy under distribution shift by adapting model parameters using statistics computed from test batches, but they provide no formal guarantees about when predictions should be trusted or how much risk degrades as a function of shift magnitude. This gap is particularly concerning in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving, medical imaging, and financial risk assessment, where a model that silently degrades under distribution shift can cause significant harm. The inability to quantify how wrong a model's predictions might be in an unseen environment fundamentally limits its trustworthy deployment.

The test-negative design (TND) is a resource-efficient observational study design that can assess vaccine effectiveness and exposure-proximal immune correlates of disease. The TND enrolls symptomatic individuals seeking diagnostic testing and compares case status by an exposure variable, such as vaccination status or immune marker level, that is measured at testing. While the TND reduces confounding by healthcare-seeking behavior, other sources of confounding may remain. TND studies may also have missing data in the exposure variable due to incomplete records or two-phase sampling designs. We present a targeted maximum likelihood estimation approach involving a semiparametric logistic regression model that targets a causal conditional risk ratio of symptomatic disease in the healthcare-seeking population. Under causal and missing at random assumptions, our method produces an efficient, asymptotically linear estimator that provides flexible, data-driven confounding control and valid causal inference when analyzing TND studies with missing exposure variable data. We evaluate our method's finite sample properties using plasmode simulations of a two-phase TND immune correlates study. We also apply our method to assess COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and antibody marker correlates of COVID-19 from TND study cohorts derived from the Moderna Coronavirus Efficacy phase 3 trial.

Neural processes amortize Gaussian process inference, replacing the exact $O(n^3)$ posterior with a learned $O(n)$ map from context sets to predictive distributions. For a class of latent neural processes, we bound the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the GP and LNP predictives, decomposing it into three interpretable sources, namely label contamination as the neural process uses label values to estimate a quantity that is label-independent in the exact GP, an information bottleneck because the finite-dimensional representation cannot resolve the full context geometry, and amortization error from a single encoder network shared across all contexts. The bottleneck truncation term decays in the representation dimension $d$ as $O(e^{-cd^{2/d_x}})$ for squared-exponential kernels on $\mathbb{R}^{d_x}$ where $c > 0$ is a kernel-dependent constant and as $O(d^{-2ν/d_x})$ for Matérn-$ν$ kernels, directly linking architecture sizing to kernel smoothness and input dimension. The label contamination term is $O(1)$ in general, with only the observation-noise component decaying as $O(1/n)$, identifying a persistent cost of routing uncertainty estimation through a label-dependent representation. These results characterize the costs of amortization within the analyzed class and yield architectural recommendations to predict variance from context locations alone in the GP-amortization regime, and replace mean aggregation with second-order pooling to close the dominant amortization gap.

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference, which for SSMs is in general a very challenging problem due to the intractability of the likelihood. Recently, neural estimation methods, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL), have shown promising results in Bayesian inference problems. In this paper, we show that SNL, when applied to the SSM setting, suffers important limitations, such as requiring a large amount of simulated samples to achieve a moderate performance, scaling poorly with sequence length, while not being amortized. We then introduce a novel inference algorithm called truncated-SNL (T-SNL), which addresses the limitations of SNL. Our algorithm is more accurate, more stable and robust during training, more scalable to longer temporal sequences, and can be amortized when new observations become available. Our experiments show that T-SNL is sample-efficient, robust, and flexible algorithm which outperforms other approaches.

Causal discovery from multivariate time series is challenging when causal effects may occur both across time and within the same sampling interval. This issue is especially important in applications such as neuroscience, where the sampling rate may be coarse relative to the underlying dynamics and contemporaneous effects need not form an acyclic graph. We study causal discovery in linear Gaussian structural VAR models under an equal noise variance assumption, meaning that the structural noise terms have a common variance. Unlike the DAG-based cross-sectional equal noise variance setting, the time-series setting considered here does not generally yield point identification of a unique causal graph. Instead, multiple structural VAR parameterizations can induce the same stationary observed process law. We introduce a notion of observational equivalence tailored to this setting and show that the corresponding equivalence class is characterized by orthogonal transformations of the structural equations together with a global positive scale. This characterization leads to an equivalence-aware model discrepancy, the observational alignment discrepancy, which compares structural models modulo transformations that preserve the observed law. Building on this theory, we propose ENVAR, a sparsity-based procedure that searches over the induced observational equivalence class for a sparse normalized structural representative. We evaluate the proposed methodology on synthetic structural VAR data and on an fMRI dataset.

We introduce a new measure of robustness for statistical estimators, which we call \emph{empirical sensitivity}. An estimator $\hat θ$ has bounded empirical sensitivity if, with high probability over a dataset $X = (X_1, \dots, X_n) \sim \mathcal{D}^{\otimes n}$, for any dataset $Y$ obtained by modifying at most $ηn$ points in $X$, we have that $\hat θ(Y)$ is close to $\hat θ(X)$. We study bounds on this quantity for the prototypical problem of Gaussian mean estimation. We prove new lower bounds, showing that for any estimator $\hat μ$ which achieves an optimal $\ell_2$-error bound of $O\left(\sqrt{d/n}\right)$, the empirical sensitivity is at least $Ω\left(η+ \sqrt{ηd/n}\right)$. The two terms arise due to obstructions on the mean and variance (via an Efron-Stein argument) of such an estimator. We show that this bound is tight up to logarithmic factors, by employing recent results for robust empirical mean estimation.

We consider one-hidden layer neural networks trained in the feature-learning regime using gradient descent, and relate the output of the finite-width network $f_{\hatρ_t^m}$ to its infinite-width counterpart $f_{ρ_t^{MF}}$, which evolves in the mean-field dynamics. While constant-time horizon bounds for $\|f_{ρ_t^{MF}} - f_{\hatρ_t^m}\|$ may be obtained via standard Grönwall estimates, the long-time behavior of the fluctuation is a more delicate matter. Uniform-in-time bounds often rely on (local) strong convexity in the landscape or Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities present in noisy gradient dynamics. In this work, we establish non-asymptotic weak propagation-of-chaos that holds uniformly in time, obtained by exploiting instead the convergence rate of the mean-field deterministic Wasserstein-gradient-flow dynamics. Specifically, denoting by $L_t$ the mean-field excess MSE loss at time $t$ and $m$ the number of neurons, under standard regularity assumptions and the condition $\int_0^\infty L_t^{1/2} dt =O(\log d)$, we obtain the uniform in time bound $\|f_{ρ_t^{MF}}- f_{\hatρ_t^m}\|^2 \lesssim \text{poly}(d) m^{-\min(1,c/6)}$ whenever $L_t \lesssim t^{-c}$. Our result holds in a noiseless setting and does not make any assumptions on the geometry of the landscape near the optimum, and extends seamlessly to other forms of discretization, including finite number of samples and time discretization. A key takeaway of our result is that whenever the convergence rate of the mean-field, population-loss dynamics is faster than $t^{-2}$, we can attain a loss of $ε$ with only $\text{poly}(d/ε)$ neurons, training samples, and GD steps.