It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper strengthens this classical result by developing several stronger forms of asymptotic normality for the normalized MLE. With additional assumptions on the score, we first establish sub-Gaussian tail bounds and convergence of all moments for the normalized estimation error. We then prove an entropic central limit theorem for a smoothed version of the estimator, showing convergence in relative entropy to the limiting Gaussian law. When the Fisher information of the normalized estimate is bounded, or its density has bounded first derivative, we further show that the smoothing can be removed, yielding entropic normality of the MLE itself. The proofs develop auxiliary tools that may be of independent interest, including exponential consistency bounds, high-moment estimates, and entropy-control arguments for the estimator.

This work focuses on the question of learning from a large number of devices with each device holding only a single sample of data. Several real-world applications exist to this one sample per client setup up including learning from fitness trackers, data/app usage aggregators, body-worn sensing devices, and daily event monitors to name a few. When a client has only one sample, the standard federated learning paradigm breaks down as a local update based on that single point is far from being useful, especially in the earlier rounds for estimation of the model coefficients. This utility is further weakened by the privacy-inducing noise applied at every round. This work caters to this problem to enable such clients to collaboratively contribute to effectively learn a global model without leaking the privacy of their data. The proposed approach injects a single, carefully calibrated noisy perturbation to transform the sample at each client, followed by a post-processed representation which is shared with the server. These representations aggregated at the server are processed to obtain an unbiased gradient update that in expectation matches the non-private centralized gradient while preserving data privacy. This approach is different than traditional private federated learning, where the communication payloads involve model coefficients as opposed to privately transformed data samples. This method enables devices with extremely limited data to collaborate and learn accurate, privacy-preserving models without requiring large local datasets or sacrificing individual privacy.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions. Methodological work typically relies on semi-simulated benchmarks and metrics that require counterfactual outcomes, whereas real-world applications rely on observable metrics based on ranking or test outcomes. Despite the well-known gap between methodological progress and practical deployment, the relationship between these evaluation regimes has not been examined systematically. We conduct a large-scale empirical study of treatment effect evaluation across standard semi-simulated benchmark families and real-world datasets. Our benchmark covers meta-learners paired with multiple base learners, as well as specialized causal machine learning models. We evaluate these methods using observable metrics common in application-oriented literature, alongside counterfactual metrics commonly used in methods papers. Our results reveal two complementary gaps. First, counterfactual metrics do not reliably recover the estimators preferred by observable metrics, even on the same semi-simulated benchmarks. Second, rankings obtained on semi-simulated benchmarks do not transfer to real datasets. We further find that simple meta-learners with strong base models are consistently competitive, in contrast to specialized causal models. Overall, our findings suggest that progress in treatment effect estimation research should not be assessed solely through counterfactual metrics and semi-simulated benchmarks, but it would benefit from incorporating observable metrics and real-data validation.

This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.

Data assimilation (DA) addresses the problem of sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations. In this work, we employ a diffusion model as a world model to simulate and predict the system's dynamics. Recently, score-based diffusion models have learned global diffusion priors that effectively model (stochastic) dynamics, revealing strong potential for data assimilation. In this paper, we investigate how information from noisy observations can be incorporated to enable continuous correction and refinement of the predicted system state when using a diffusion prior. Motivated by particle filtering methods, we represent the posterior distribution using a set of particles. After receiving noisy observations, the diffusion model is guided using the observation likelihood to steer the generation process toward observation-consistent states. Nevertheless, such guidance does not guarantee sampling from the true posterior. We therefore employ a Sequential Monte Carlo approach over the diffusion trajectory, viewed as a path measure, to reweight and resample particles, thereby correcting the generation process and ensuring convergence toward the desired posterior distribution. This leads to an unbiased particle filtering method that rigorously fuses observational data with diffusion model simulations.

Uniform sampling on implicitly defined manifolds is a core primitive in motion planning, constrained simulation, and probabilistic machine learning. MASEM addresses this problem by entropy-maximizing resampling, but its resampling weights depend on a local k-nearest-neighbour density estimate whose errors can be amplified by aggressive resampling temperatures. We ask whether a polynomial-maximization moment estimator can replace the plug-in density rule without changing the surrounding MASEM architecture. The proposed PMM-MASEM module computes shell spacings from nested k-nearest-neighbour radii, estimates their standardized cumulants, and uses a gated PMM2/PMM3 estimator only when the spacing distribution departs from the flat Exp(1) regime; otherwise it falls back to the plug-in/MLE rule. This fallback is essential: on a flat homogeneous manifold the plug-in estimator is already the MLE, so PMM should not outperform it. A local Known-DGP Monte Carlo experiment confirms this gate: the selector returns MLE on flat Exp(1) spacings and reduces density MSE by 22--36% on asymmetric gamma and boundary-spacing regimes. The evidence is not uniformly positive: PMM3 worsens a platykurtic uniform spacing law, and a lightweight resampling-proxy experiment improves seven-lobes coverage but degrades the sine and swiss-roll proxies. The current evidence therefore supports an applicability-boundary result rather than a general MASEM improvement claim.

The global uniform aggregation of random forests leaves conditional bias along the decision boundary uncorrected. To correct this locally, we propose exploiting the structural pattern of each tree's decision path. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that reliability varies meaningfully across path patterns in the boundary region identified by the forest itself, and that using this signal yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). We further devise a way to measure the sufficiency of residual information in the fitted RF's decision boundary, providing an estimate of the expected gain before the method is applied; on the qualifying group identified this way, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0). Class-recall regression -- the typical failure mode of RF correction methods -- is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating that the correction operates in the direction of bias reduction rather than class trade-off. Our work suggests that the structural information of decision paths, previously overlooked in random forest research, can contribute to RF performance improvement.

We propose and analyze a conservative drifting method for one-step generative modeling. The method replaces the original displacement-based drifting velocity by a kernel density estimator (KDE)-gradient velocity, namely the difference of the kernel-smoothed data score and the kernel-smoothed model score. This velocity is a gradient field, addressing the non-conservatism issue identified for general displacement-based drifting fields. We prove continuous-time finite-particle convergence bounds for the conservative method on $\R^d$: a joint-entropy identity yields bounds for the empirical Stein drift, the smoothed Fisher discrepancy of the KDE, and the squared center velocity. The main finite-particle correction is a reciprocal-KDE self-interaction term, and we give deterministic and high-probability local-occupancy conditions under which this term is controlled. We keep the quadrature constants explicit and track their possible bandwidth dependence: the root residual-velocity rate $N^{-1/(d+4)}$ holds under an additional $h$-uniform quadrature regularity condition, while a more general growth condition yields the optimized root rate $N^{-(2-β)/(2(d+4-β))}$, where $0\le β<2$. We also analyze the non-conservative drifting method with Laplace kernel, corresponding to the original displacement-based velocity proposed in Deng et al., 2026 (arxiv:2602.04770). For this method, a sharp companion kernel decomposes the velocity into a positive scalar preconditioning of a sharp-score mismatch plus a Laplace scale-mismatch residual, producing an analogous finite-particle rate with an unavoidable residual term. Finally, we explain how the continuous-time residual-velocity bounds translate into one-step generation guarantees through the explicit drift size $η$.

Human feedback often arrives as preferences rather than calibrated numeric rewards, motivating reinforcement learning from preferential feedback, also referred to as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). We present a rigorous theoretical study of preference-only learning in episodic kernel MDPs. In each episode, the learner deploys two policies from a common start state and receives a single binary label indicating which trajectory is preferred, modeled by a Bradley--Terry--Luce link on the difference of cumulative (unobserved) rewards. Under kernel-based assumptions on the reward and transition functions (one of the most general models amenable to theoretical analysis) we develop preference-based value estimation and confidence sets tailored to end-of-episode comparisons. We prove high-probability regret bounds that scale sublinearly in the number of episodes, implying that the value of the learned policy converges to that of the optimal policy.

Finite-width fully connected neural networks with Gaussian-initialized weights deviate from their infinite-width Gaussian limit, exhibiting non-vanishing higher-order cumulants. We approximate these deviations, for a neural network evaluated in a finite number of inputs, using multidimensional Edgeworth expansions of arbitrary order $4m-1$, with $m\in\mathbb{N}$. Assuming that the corresponding Gaussian limit has an invertible covariance matrix and that the activation function is polynomially bounded, we establish a bound of order $n^{-m}$ on the total variation distance between the law of the true network output and its Edgeworth approximation, with matching lower bounds. As an application, we quantify the error in Bayesian posterior distributions when the prior is replaced by its Edgeworth expansion. Our results are more general and also apply to sequences of conditionally Gaussian vectors converging to a Gaussian vector with invertible covariance.