Gradient clipping is increasingly important in centralized learning (CL) and federated learning (FL). Many works focus on its optimization properties under strong assumptions involving Gaussian noise and standard smoothness. However, practical machine learning tasks often only satisfy weaker conditions, such as heavy-tailed noise and $(L_0, L_1)$-smoothness. To bridge this gap, we propose a high-probability analysis for clipped Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) under these weaker assumptions. Our findings show a better convergence rate than existing ones can be achieved, and our high-probability analysis does not rely on the bounded gradient assumption. Moreover, we extend our analysis to FL, where a gap remains between expected and high-probability convergence, which the naive clipped SGD cannot bridge. Thus, we design a new \underline{Fed}erated \underline{C}lipped \underline{B}atched \underline{G}radient (FedCBG) algorithm, and prove the convergence and generalization bounds with high probability for the first time. Our analysis reveals the trade-offs between the optimization and generalization performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \methodname{} can generalize better to unseen client distributions than state-of-the-art baselines.

Contrastive learning has achieved remarkable success in self-supervised learning by pretraining a generalizable feature representation based on the augmentation invariance. Most existing approaches assume that different augmented views of the same instance (i.e., the) remain semantically invariant. However, the augmentation results with may introduce semantic discrepancies or even content distortion, and thus the conventional (pseudo) supervision from augmentation invariance may lead to misguided learning objectives. In this paper, we propose a novel method called Contrastive Learning with Variable Similarity (CLVS) to accurately characterize the intrinsic similarity relationships between different augmented views. Our method dynamically adjusts the similarity based on the augmentation extent, and it ensures that strongly augmented views are always assigned lower similarity scores than weakly augmented ones. We provide a theoretical analysis to guarantee the effectiveness of the variable similarity in improving model generalizability. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving gains of 2.1\% on ImageNet-100 and 1.4\% on ImageNet-1k compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

This work establishes a novel link between the problem of PAC-learning high-dimensional graphical models and the task of (efficient) counting and sampling of graph structures, using an online learning framework. The problem of efficiently counting and sampling graphical structures, such as spanning trees and acyclic orientations, has been a vibrant area of research in algorithms. We show that this rich algorithmic foundation can be leveraged to develop new algorithms for learning high-dimensional graphical models. We present the first efficient algorithm for (both realizable and agnostic) learning of Bayes nets with a chordal skeleton. In particular, we present an algorithm that, given integers $k,d > 0$, error parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, an undirected chordal graph $G$ on $n$ vertices, and sample access to a distribution $P^\ast$ on $[k]^n$; (1) returns a Bayes net $\widehat{P}$ with skeleton $G$ and indegree $d$, whose KL-divergence from $P^\ast$ is at most $\varepsilon$ more than the optimal KL-divergence between $P^\ast$ and any Bayes net with skeleton $G$ and indegree $d$, (2) uses $\widetilde{O}(n^3k^{d+1}/\varepsilon^2)$ samples from $P^\ast$ and runs in time $\mathrm{poly}(n,k,\varepsilon^{-1})$ for constant $d$. Prior results in this spirit were for only for trees ($d=1$, tree skeleton) via Chow-Liu, and in the realizable setting for polytrees (arbitrary $d$ but tree skeleton). Thus, our result significantly extends the state-of-the-art in learning Bayes net distributions. We also establish new results for learning tree and polytree distributions.

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for analyzing graph-structured data, achieving remarkable success across diverse applications. However, the theoretical understanding of the stability of these models, i.e., their sensitivity to small changes in the graph structure, remains in rather limited settings, hampering the development and deployment of robust and trustworthy models in practice. To fill this gap, we study how small perturbations in the graph topology affect GCNN outputs and propose a novel formulation for analyzing model stability. Unlike prior studies that focus only on worst-case perturbations, our distribution-aware formulation characterizes output perturbations across a broad range of input data. This way, our framework enables, for the first time, a probabilistic perspective on the interplay between the statistical properties of the node data and perturbations in the graph topology. We conduct extensive experiments to validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate their benefits over existing baselines, in terms of both representation stability and adversarial attacks on downstream tasks. Our results demonstrate the practical significance of the proposed formulation and highlight the importance of incorporating data distribution into stability analysis.

We study online estimation for high-dimensional generalized linear models with streaming data. First, for the non-distributed setting, we propose a gradient-enhanced surrogate loss that approximates the cumulative loss using only historical summaries, which modifies and improves upon the existing renewable estimation approach for the same model in the high-dimensional setting, and removes the batch-number constraint in previous studies. We then extend the method to distributed streaming data under the master-client architecture, where batches are partitioned across sites and only summaries (gradient vectors) are exchanged. Instead of directing applying the popular method of Jordan et al. (2019) to the surrogate quadratic loss, our adjusted approach does not require the clients to compute the full surrogate loss. We derive non-asymptotic error bounds under the high-dimensional scaling, without the stringent constraint on the number of batches in the previous studies. Simulation results under linear and logistic models, together with a real-data application, show improved accuracy over existing renewable estimators.

We study the problem of generating synthetic data under differential privacy. We establish fixed-parameter tractability (FPT) for this problem where the parameter is the treewidth of the query family's incidence graph. Our algorithms attain optimal error rates across all regimes and are realized by two different approaches: the first is based on linear programming (LP) and the FPT of the separation problem for the LP dual; the second is based on a subsampled private multiplicative weights method, where we obtain FPT for sampling from Gibbs distributions. Both approaches are unified by a dynamic programming framework over a tree decomposition.

Time series analysis is a fundamental component of machine learning, especially in astrophysics and cosmology where temporal data abound. This chapter provides a pedagogical review of time series analysis techniques from a machine learning perspective. We cover the basic concepts of time series (stationarity, autocorrelation, seasonality), classical statistical models (autoregressive, moving average, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space models), and modern machine learning approaches. In particular, we discuss how traditional statistical methods lay the groundwork, and then explore machine learning methods for time series, including feature-based regression, tree-based ensemble methods, hidden Markov models, Gaussian processes, and deep learning models (recurrent neural networks, convolutional networks, transformers). Throughout, we illustrate with examples drawn from multiple domains (e.g. astronomy, weather forecasting, finance) to emphasize common principles. The goal is to equip readers with both the theoretical understanding and practical context to apply machine learning techniques for time series analysis in their research.

Prior-fitted networks (PFNs) are a promising class of tabular foundation models that perform in-context learning, whereby the entire labelled training set is supplied as context, and predictions for test queries are produced in a single forward pass. However, the quadratically scaling self-attention mechanism in many PFN architectures makes inference prohibitive for very large training datasets. We propose CRUMB (Clustered Retrieval Using Minimised-MMD Batching), a three-stage inference wrapper that (i) clusters the test queries, (ii) selects a small, distributionally matched training subset for each cluster by greedily minimising the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), and (iii) runs exact PFN inference on each reduced-context batch. CRUMB is architecture-agnostic and requires no retraining. On the 51-dataset TabArena benchmark, evaluated across three PFN architectures (TabPFNv2, TabICLv1, TabICLv2), we show that CRUMB outperforms similar state-of-the-art context selection strategies. We also show that CRUMB is resilient to covariate drift, as the MMD-minimisation step naturally helps align the training context distribution to match the current test batch distributions.

Multispecies spatial data arise in many applications where interactions between different entities are central to system behaviour, including biomedical imaging, geospatial analysis, and species ecology. Despite their importance, relatively few quantitative tools exist to capture such interactions. In this work, we propose magnitude-based features for the analysis of multispecies spatial data. Magnitude is a real-valued invariant of finite metric spaces that can be interpreted as an effective number of points, incorporating both spatial configuration and scale. We develop global and local magnitude feature vectors and demonstrate their utility on synthetic tumour microenvironment data, and in tissue microarray data from human colorectal cancer samples. Locally, the method identifies distinct neighbourhood types and reveals spatial heterogeneity; in the model, this includes radial patterns associated with different qualitative outcomes of the simulations, while in the real-world data it reflects the importance of tertiary lymphoid structure-like interactions between B and T cell populations. Globally, the approach recovers known classifications of long-term simulation outcomes across parameter regimes in synthetic data, and suggests important roles for CD4+ T cells and CD163+ macrophages in distinguishing patients with favourable Crohn's like reactions from unfavourable diffuse immune infiltration. Together, these results suggest that magnitude-based features provide a powerful and flexible tool for the analysis of multispecies spatial data.

Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees. Conformal prediction provides such UQ by wrapping ML predictions into prediction sets, and recent work by Kiyani et al. (2025b) established that these sets can be translated into optimal risk-averse decision policies -- yet only inheriting marginal safety guarantees. We generalize and strengthen their results by (i) introducing action-conditional conformal prediction, which yields safety guarantees conditioned explicitly on each action taken by the decision maker, (ii) showing that action-conditional prediction sets serve as a proxy for the feasible decision space for risk-averse decision makers aiming to optimize action-conditional value-at-risk, and (iii) proposing a principled finite-sample algorithm based on pinball-loss minimization, connecting the framework of Gibbs et al. (2025) to action-conditional guarantees. Experiments on two real-world datasets confirm that our approach significantly improves action-conditional performance over conformal baselines.