Genre
Data Fusion for Partial Identification of Causal Effects
Data fusion techniques integrate information from heterogeneous data sources to improve learning, generalization, and decision-making across data sciences. In causal inference, these methods leverage rich observational data to improve causal effect estimation, while maintaining the trustworthiness of randomized controlled trials. Existing approaches often relax the strong no unobserved confounding assumption by instead assuming exchangeability of counterfactual outcomes across data sources. However, when both assumptions simultaneously fail--a common scenario in practice--current methods cannot identify or estimate causal effects. We address this limitation by proposing a novel partial identification framework that enables researchers to answer key questions such as: and Our approach introduces interpretable sensitivity parameters that quantify assumption violations and derives corresponding causal effect bounds. We develop doubly robust estimators for these bounds and operationalize breakdown frontier analysis to understand how causal conclusions change as assumption violations increase. We apply our framework to the Project STAR study, which investigates the effect of classroom size on students' third-grade standardized test performance. Our analysis reveals that the Project STAR results are robust to simultaneous violations of key assumptions, both on average and across various subgroups of interest. This strengthens confidence in the study's conclusions despite potential unmeasured biases in the data.
Least squares variational inference
Variational inference seeks the best approximation of a target distribution within a chosen family, where best means minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence. When the approximation family is exponential, the optimal approximation satisfies a fixed-point equation. We introduce LSVI (Least Squares Variational Inference), a gradient-free, Monte Carlo-based scheme for the fixed-point recursion, where each iteration boils down to performing ordinary least squares regression on tempered log-target evaluations under the variational approximation. We show that LSVI is equivalent to biased stochastic natural gradient descent and use this to derive convergence rates with respect to the numbers of samples and iterations. When the approximation family is Gaussian, LSVI involves inverting the Fisher information matrix, whose size grows quadratically with dimension $d$. We exploit the regression formulation to eliminate the need for this inversion, yielding $O(d^3)$ complexity in the full-covariance case and $O(d)$ in the mean-field case. Finally, we numerically demonstrate LSVI's performance on various tasks, including logistic regression, discrete variable selection, and Bayesian synthetic likelihood, showing competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, even when gradients are unavailable.
Geometry of Decision Making in Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) show strong generalization across diverse tasks, yet the internal decision-making processes behind their predictions remain opaque. In this work, we study the geometry of hidden representations in LLMs through the lens of intrinsic dimension (ID), focusing specifically on decision-making dynamics in a multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) setting. We perform a large-scale study, with 28 open-weight transformer models and estimate ID across layers using multiple estimators, while also quantifying per-layer performance on MCQA tasks. Our findings reveal a consistent ID pattern across models: early layers operate on low-dimensional manifolds, middle layers expand this space, and later layers compress it again, converging to decision-relevant representations. Together, these results suggest LLMs implicitly learn to project linguistic inputs onto structured, low-dimensional manifolds aligned with task-specific decisions, providing new geometric insights into how generalization and reasoning emerge in language models.
On Fairness of Unified Multimodal Large Language Model for Image Generation
Unified multimodal large language models (U-MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in end-to-end visual understanding and generation tasks. However, compared to generation-only systems (e.g., Stable Diffusion), the unified architecture of U-MLLMs introduces new risks of propagating demographic stereotypes. In this paper, we benchmark several state-of-the-art U-MLLMs and show that they exhibit significant gender and race biases in the generated outputs. To diagnose the source of these biases, we propose a locate-then-fix framework: we first audit the vision and language components -- using techniques such as linear probing and controlled generation -- and find that the language model appears to be a primary origin of the observed generative bias. Moreover, we observe a ``partial alignment'' phenomenon, where the U-MLLMs exhibit less bias in understanding tasks yet produce substantially biased images. To address this, we introduce a novel \emph{balanced preference loss} that enforces uniform generation probabilities across demographics by leveraging a synthetically balanced dataset. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly reduces demographic bias while preserving semantic fidelity and image quality. Our findings underscore the need for targeted debiasing strategies in unified multimodal systems and introduce a practical approach to mitigate biases.
Vanish into Thin Air: Cross-prompt Universal Adversarial Attacks for SAM2
Recent studies reveal the vulnerability of the image segmentation foundation model SAM to adversarial examples. Its successor, SAM2, has attracted significant attention due to its strong generalization capability in video segmentation. However, its robustness remains unexplored, and it is unclear whether existing attacks on SAM can be directly transferred to SAM2. In this paper, we first analyze the performance gap of existing attacks between SAM and SAM2 and highlight two key challenges arising from their architectural differences: directional guidance from the prompt and semantic entanglement across consecutive frames. To address these issues, we propose UAP-SAM2, the first cross-prompt universal adversarial attack against SAM2 driven by dual semantic deviation. For cross-prompt transferability, we begin by designing a target-scanning strategy that divides each frame into k regions, each randomly assigned a prompt, to reduce prompt dependency during optimization.
HELM: Hyperbolic Large Language Models via Mixture-of-Curvature Experts
Frontier large language models (LLMs) have shown great success in text modeling and generation tasks across domains. However, natural language exhibits inherent semantic hierarchies and nuanced geometric structure, which current LLMs do not capture completely owing to their reliance on Euclidean operations such as dot-products and norms. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that not respecting the underlying geometry of token embeddings leads to training instabilities and degradation of generative capabilities. These findings suggest that shifting to non-Euclidean geometries can better align language models with the underlying geometry of text. We thus propose to operate fully in $\textit{Hyperbolic space}$, known for its expansive, scale-free, and low-distortion properties.
Enhancing Privacy in Multimodal Federated Learning with Information Theory
Multimodal federated learning (MMFL) has gained increasing popularity due to its ability to leverage the correlation between various modalities, meanwhile preserving data privacy for different clients. However, recent studies show that correlation between modalities increase the vulnerability of federated learning against Gradient Inversion Attack (GIA). The complicated situation of MMFL privacy preserving can be summarized as follows: 1) different modality transmits different amounts of information, thus requires various protection strength; 2) correlation between modalities should be taken into account. This paper introduces an information theory perspective to analyze the leaked privacy in process of MMFL, and tries to propose a more reasonable protection method \textbf{Sec-MMFL} based on assessing different information leakage possibilities of each modality by conditional mutual information and adjust the corresponding protection strength. Moreover, we use mutual information to reduce the cross-modality information leakage in MMFL. Experiments have proven that our method can bring more balanced and comprehensive protection at an acceptable cost.
Computational Efficiency under Covariate Shift in Kernel Ridge Regression
This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and test data differ, presenting additional challenges for learning. Although kernel methods have optimal statistical properties, their high computational demands in terms of time and, particularly, memory, limit their scalability to large datasets. To address this limitation, the main focus of this paper is to explore the trade-off between computational efficiency and statistical accuracy under covariate shift. We investigate the use of random projections where the hypothesis space consists of a random subspace within a given RKHS. Our results show that, even in the presence of covariate shift, significant computational savings can be achieved without compromising learning performance.
The Hawthorne Effect in Reasoning Models: Evaluating and Steering Test Awareness
Reasoning-focused LLMs sometimes alter their behavior when they detect that they are being evaluated--which can lead them to optimize for test-passing performance or to comply more readily with harmful prompts if real-world consequences appear absent. We present the first quantitative study of how such "test awareness" impacts model behavior, particularly its performance on safety-related tasks. We introduce a white-box probing framework that (i) linearly identifies awareness-related activations and (ii) steers models toward or away from test awareness while monitoring downstream performance. We apply our method to different state-of-the-art open-weight reasoning LLMs across both realistic and hypothetical tasks (denoting tests or simulations). Our results demonstrate that test awareness significantly impacts safety alignment (such as compliance with harmful requests and conforming to stereotypes) with effects varying in both magnitude and direction across models. By providing control over this latent effect, our work aims to provide a stress-test mechanism and increase trust in how we perform safety evaluations.
Automated Detection of Visual Attribute Reliance with a Self-Reflective Agent
When a vision model performs image recognition, which visual attributes drive its predictions? Detecting unintended reliance on specific visual features is critical for ensuring model robustness, preventing overfitting, and avoiding spurious correlations. We introduce an automated framework for detecting such dependencies in trained vision models. At the core of our method is a self-reflective agent that systematically generates and tests hypotheses about visual attributes that a model may rely on. This process is iterative: the agent refines its hypotheses based on experimental outcomes and uses a self-evaluation protocol to assess whether its findings accurately explain model behavior. When inconsistencies arise, the agent self-reflects over its findings and triggers a new cycle of experimentation. We evaluate our approach on a novel benchmark of 130 models designed to exhibit diverse visual attribute dependencies across 18 categories. Our results show that the agent's performance consistently improves with self-reflection, with a significant performance increase over non-reflective baselines. We further demonstrate that the agent identifies real-world visual attribute dependencies in state-of-the-art models, including CLIP's vision encoder and the YOLOv8 object detector.