The TNM staging system has been used since the early 1960's to predict breast cancer patient outcome. In an attempt to increase prognostic accuracy, many putative prognostic factors have been identified. Because the TNM stage model can not accommodate these new factors, the proliferation of factors in breast cancer has lead to clinical confusion. What is required is a new computerized prognostic system that can test putative prognostic factors and integrate the predictive factors with the TNM variables in order to increase prognostic accuracy. Using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, we compare the accuracy of the following predictive models in terms of five year breast cancer-specific survival: pTNM staging system, principal component analysis, classification and regression trees, logistic regression, cascade correlation neural network, conjugate gradient descent neural, probabilistic neural network, and backpropagation neural network. Several statistical models are significantly more ac- 1064 Harry B. Burke, David B. Rosen, Philip H. Goodman

Perceptual learning is defined as fast improvement in performance and retention of the learned ability over a period of time. In a set of psychophysical experiments we demonstrated that perceptual learning occurs for the discrimination of direction in stochastic motion stimuli. Here we model this learning using two approaches: a clustering model that learns to accommodate the motion noise, and an averaging model that learns to ignore the noise. Simulations of the models show performance similar to the psychophysical results. 1 Introduction Global motion perception is critical to many visual tasks: to perceive self-motion, to identify objects in motion, to determine the structure of the environment, and to make judgements for safe navigation. In the presence of noise, as in random dot kinematograms, efficient extraction of global motion involves considerable spatial integration. Newsome and Colleagues (1989) showed that neurons in the macaque middle temporal area (MT) are motion direction-selective, and perform global integration of motion in their large receptive fields. Psychophysical studies in humans have characterized the limits of spatial and temporal integration in motion (Watamaniuk et.

Many different discrete-time recurrent neural network architectures have been proposed. However, there has been virtually no effort to compare these arch:tectures experimentally. In this paper we review and categorize many of these architectures and compare how they perform on various classes of simple problems including grammatical inference and nonlinear system identification.

An impedence controlled manipulandum for human movement studies.

This paper discusses the linearly weighted combination of estimators in which the weighting functions are dependent on the input. We show that the weighting functions can be derived either by evaluating the input dependent variance of each estimator or by estimating how likely it is that a given estimator has seen data in the region of the input space close to the input pattern. The latter solution is closely related to the mixture of experts approach and we show how learning rules for the mixture of experts can be derived from the theory about learning with missing features. The presented approaches are modular since the weighting functions can easily be modified (no retraining) if more estimators are added. Furthermore, it is easy to incorporate estimators which were not derived from data such as expert systems or algorithms.

Motivated by difficulties in analog VLSI implementation of back-propagation [Rumelhart et al., 1986] and related algorithms that calculate gradients based on detailed knowledge of the neural network model, there were several similar recent papers proposing to use a parallel [Alspector et al., 1993, Cauwenberghs, 1993, Kirk et al., 1993] or a semi-parallel [Flower and Jabri, 1993] perturbative technique which has the property that it measures (with the physical neural network) rather than calculates the gradient. This technique is closely related to methods of stochastic approximation [Kushner and Clark, 1978] which have been investigated recently by workers in fields other than neural networks.

This paper studies the problem of diffusion in Markovian models, such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) and how it makes very difficult the task of learning of long-term dependencies in sequences. Using results from Markov chain theory, we show that the problem of diffusion is reduced if the transition probabilities approach 0 or 1. Under this condition, standard HMMs have very limited modeling capabilities, but input/output HMMs can still perform interesting computations.

Current understanding of the effects of damage on neural networks is rudimentary, even though such understanding could lead to important insights concerning neurological and psychiatric disorders. Motivated by this consideration, we present a simple analytical framework for estimating the functional damage resulting from focal structural lesions to a neural network.

In this paper, we incorporate the Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts (HME) method of probability estimation, developed by Jordan [1], into an HMMbased continuous speech recognition system. The resulting system can be thought of as a continuous-density HMM system, but instead of using gaussian mixtures, the HME system employs a large set of hierarchically organized but relatively small neural networks to perform the probability density estimation. The hierarchical structure is reminiscent of a decision tree except for two important differences: each "expert" or neural net performs a "soft" decision rather than a hard decision, and, unlike ordinary decision trees, the parameters of all the neural nets in the HME are automatically trainable using the EM algorithm. We report results on the ARPA 5,OOO-word and 4O,OOO-word Wall Street Journal corpus using HME models. 1 Introduction Recent research has shown that a continuous-density HMM (CD-HMM) system can outperform a more constrained tied-mixture HMM system for large-vocabulary continuous speech recognition (CSR) when a large amount of training data is available [2]. In other work, the utility of decision trees has been demonstrated in classification problems by using the "divide and conquer" paradigm effectively, where a problem is divided into a hierarchical set of simpler problems.

The performance of online algorithms for learning dichotomies is studied. In online learning, the number of examples P is equivalent to the learning time, since each example is presented only once. The learning curve, or generalization error as a function of P, depends on the schedule at which the learning rate is lowered.