Motivated by difficulties in analog VLSI implementation of back-propagation [Rumelhart et al., 1986] and related algorithms that calculate gradients based on detailed knowledge of the neural network model, there were several similar recent papers proposing to use a parallel [Alspector et al., 1993, Cauwenberghs, 1993, Kirk et al., 1993] or a semi-parallel [Flower and Jabri, 1993] perturbative technique which has the property that it measures (with the physical neural network) rather than calculates the gradient. This technique is closely related to methods of stochastic approximation [Kushner and Clark, 1978] which have been investigated recently by workers in fields other than neural networks.

The TNM staging system has been used since the early 1960's to predict breast cancer patient outcome. In an attempt to increase putative prognostic factors haveprognostic accuracy, many the TNM stage model can not accommodatebeen identified.

Random errors and insufficiencies in databases limit the performance of any classifier trained from and applied to the database. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the limiting performance of classifiers imposed by the database. We demonstrate this technique on the task of predicting failure in telecommunication paths. 1 Introduction Data collection for a classification or regression task is prone to random errors, e.g.

This paper discusses the linearly weighted combination of estimators in which the weighting functions are dependent on the input. We show that the weighting functions can be derived either by evaluating the input dependent variance of each estimator or by estimating how likely it is that a given estimator has seen data in the region of the input space close to the input pattern. The latter solution is closely related to the mixture of experts approach and we show how learning rules for the mixture of experts can be derived from the theory about learning with missing features. The presented approaches are modular since the weighting functions can easily be modified (no retraining) if more estimators are added. Furthermore, it is easy to incorporate estimators which were not derived from data such as expert systems or algorithms.

MLP networks provided slightly better risk prediction than conventional logistic regression when used to predict the risk of death, stroke, and renal failure on 1257 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass operations. Bootstrap sampling was required to compare approaches and regularization provided by early stopping was an important component of improved performance. A simplified approach to generating confidence intervals for MLP risk predictions using an auxiliary "confidence MLP" was also developed. The confidence MLP is trained to reproduce the confidence bounds that were generated during training by 50 MLP networks trained using bootstrap samples. Current research is validating these results using larger data sets, exploring approaches to detect outlier patients who are so different from any training patient that accurate risk prediction is suspect, developing approaches to explaining which input features are important for an individual patient, and determining why MLP networks provide improved performance.

One of the fundamental properties that both neural networks and the central nervous system share is the ability to learn and generalize from examples. While this property has been studied extensively in the neural network literature it has not been thoroughly explored in human perceptual and motor learning. We have chosen a coordinate transformation system-the visuomotor map which transforms visual coordinates into motor coordinates-to study the generalization effects of learning new input-output pairs. Using a paradigm of computer controlled altered visual feedback, we have studied the generalization of the visuomotor map subsequent to both local and context-dependent remappings. A local remapping of one or two input-output pairs induced a significant global, yet decaying, change in the visuomotor map, suggesting a representation for the map composed of units with large functional receptive fields. Our study of context-dependent remappings indicated that a single point in visual space can be mapped to two different finger locations depending on a context variable-the starting point of the movement. Furthermore, as the context is varied there is a gradual shift between the two remappings, consistent with two visuomotor modules being learned and gated smoothly with the context. 1 Introduction The human central nervous system (CNS) receives sensory inputs from a multitude of modalities, each tuned to extract different forms of information from the 1126 Zoubin Ghahramani, Daniel M. Wolpert, Michael 1. Jordan

Experiments were performed to reveal some of the computational properties of the human motor memory system. We show that as humans practice reaching movements while interacting with a novel mechanical environment, they learn an internal model of the inverse dynamics of that environment. The representation of the internal model in memory is such that there is interference when there is an attempt to learn a new inverse dynamics map immediately after an anticorrelated mapping was learned. We suggest that this interference is an indication that the same computational elements used to encode the first inverse dynamics map are being used to learn the second mapping. We predict that this leads to a forgetting of the initially learned skill. 1 Introduction In tasks where we use our hands to interact with a tool, our motor system develops a model of the dynamics of that tool and uses this model to control the coupled dynamics of our arm and the tool (Shadmehr and Mussa-Ivaldi 1994). In physical systems theory, the tool is a mechanical analogue of an admittance, mapping a force as input onto a change in state as output (Hogan 1985).

The TNM staging system has been used since the early 1960's to predict breast cancer patient outcome. In an attempt to increase prognostic accuracy, many putative prognostic factors have been identified. Because the TNM stage model can not accommodate these new factors, the proliferation of factors in breast cancer has lead to clinical confusion. What is required is a new computerized prognostic system that can test putative prognostic factors and integrate the predictive factors with the TNM variables in order to increase prognostic accuracy. Using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, we compare the accuracy of the following predictive models in terms of five year breast cancer-specific survival: pTNM staging system, principal component analysis, classification and regression trees, logistic regression, cascade correlation neural network, conjugate gradient descent neural, probabilistic neural network, and backpropagation neural network. Several statistical models are significantly more ac- 1064 Harry B. Burke, David B. Rosen, Philip H. Goodman

MLP networks provided slightly better risk prediction than conventional logistic regression when used to predict the risk of death, stroke, and renal failure on 1257 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass operations. Bootstrap sampling was required to compare approaches and regularization provided by early stopping was an important component of improved performance. A simplified approach to generating confidence intervals for MLP risk predictions using an auxiliary "confidence MLP" was also developed. The confidence MLP is trained to reproduce the confidence bounds that were generated during training by 50 MLP networks trained using bootstrap samples. Current research is validating these results using larger data sets, exploring approaches to detect outlier patients who are so different from any training patient that accurate risk prediction is suspect, developing approaches to explaining which input features are important for an individual patient, and determining why MLP networks provide improved performance.

Each year people spend a huge amount of time typing. The text people type typically contains a tremendous amount of redundancy due to predictable word usage patterns and the text's structure. This paper describes a neural network system call AutoTypist that monitors a person's typing and predicts what will be entered next. AutoTypist displays the most likely subsequent word to the typist, who can accept it with a single keystroke, instead of typing it in its entirety. The multi-layer perceptron at the heart of Auto'JYpist adapts its predictions of likely subsequent text to the user's word usage pattern, and to the characteristics of the text currently being typed. Increases in typing speed of 2-3% when typing English prose and 10-20% when typing C code have been demonstrated using the system, suggesting a potential time savings of more than 20 hours per user per year. In addition to increasing typing speed, AutoTypist reduces the number of keystrokes a user must type by a similar amount (2-3% for English, 10-20% for computer programs). This keystroke savings has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency and severity of repeated stress injuries caused by typing, which are the most common injury suffered in today's office environment.