The Artificial Prediction Market is a recent machine learning technique for multi-class classification, inspired from the financial markets. It involves a number of trained market participants that bet on the possible outcomes and are rewarded if they predict correctly. This paper generalizes the scope of the Artificial Prediction Markets to regression, where there are uncountably many possible outcomes and the error is usually the MSE. For that, we introduce the reward kernel that rewards each participant based on its prediction error and we derive the price equations. Using two reward kernels we obtain two different learning rules, one of which is approximated using Hermite-Gauss quadrature. The market setting makes it easy to aggregate specialized regressors that only predict when an observation falls into their specialization domain. Experiments show that regression markets based on the two learning rules outperform Random Forest Regression on many UCI datasets and are rarely outperformed.

ABSTRACT People sometimes worry about the Singularity (Vinge 1993, Kurzweil 2005), or about the world being taken over by artificially intelligent robots. I believe the risks of these are very small. However, few people recognize that we already share our world with artificial creatures that participate as intelligent agents in our society: corporations. Our planet is inhabited by two distinct kinds of intelligent beings -- individual humans and corporate entities -- whose natures and interests are intimately linked. To coexist well, we need to find ways to define the rights and responsibilities of both individual humans and corporate entities, and to find ways to ensure that corporate entities behave as responsible members of society. CORPORATIONS ARE INTELLIGENT AGENTS A corporation is an artificial legal entity, created by the state through a particular kind of legal agreement. A corporation can own property, can sign contracts, can sue and be sued in court, and can be prosecuted and punished for crimes. It can act as an economic agent on its own behalf in our society. A corporation can have goals, can make plans to achieve those goals, and can use its resources to act to carry out those plans. It solves problems and makes decisions about how best to achieve its goals, so it can be considered as an intelligent agent, as defined by a leading text in Artificial Intelligence (Russell & Norvig 2010, p. 34). An agent is anything that can be viewed as perceiving its environment through sensors and acting upon that environment through actuators.... A human agent has eyes, ears, and other organs for sensors and hands, legs, vocal tract, and so on for actuators.

The solution of the biobjective IRP is rather challenging, even for metaheuristics. We are still lacking a profound understanding of appropriate solution representations and effective neighborhood structures. Clearly, both the delivery volumes and the routing aspects of the alternatives need to be reflected in an encoding, and must be modified when searching by means of local search. Our work contributes to the better understanding of such solution representations. On the basis of an experimental investigation, the advantages and drawbacks of two encodings are studied and compared.

Such uses are made possible by using semantically enriched 3D city models and by presenting such enriched 3D city models in a way that allows decision-making processes to be carried out from the best choices among sets of objectives, and across issues and scales. In order to help in such a decision-making process we have defined a framework to find the best visualization technique(s) for a set of potentially heterogeneous data that have to be visualized within the same 3D city model, in order to perform a given task in a specific context. We have chosen an ontology-based approach. This approach and the specification and use of the resulting ontology of 3D visualization techniques are described in this paper.

A number of representation schemes have been presented for use within Learning Classifier Systems, ranging from binary encodings to Neural Networks, and more recently Dynamical Genetic Programming (DGP). This paper presents results from an investigation into using a fuzzy DGP representation within the XCSF Learning Classifier System. In particular, asynchronous Fuzzy Logic Networks are used to represent the traditional condition-action production system rules. It is shown possible to use self-adaptive, open-ended evolution to design an ensemble of such fuzzy dynamical systems within XCSF to solve several well-known continuous-valued test problems.

In this paper, we study statistical properties of semi-supervised learning, which is considered as an important problem in the community of machine learning. In the standard supervised learning, only the labeled data is observed. The classification and regression problems are formalized as the supervised learning. In semi-supervised learning, unlabeled data is also obtained in addition to labeled data. Hence, exploiting unlabeled data is important to improve the prediction accuracy in semi-supervised learning. This problems is regarded as a semiparametric estimation problem with missing data. Under the the discriminative probabilistic models, it had been considered that the unlabeled data is useless to improve the estimation accuracy. Recently, it was revealed that the weighted estimator using the unlabeled data achieves better prediction accuracy in comparison to the learning method using only labeled data, especially when the discriminative probabilistic model is misspecified. That is, the improvement under the semiparametric model with missing data is possible, when the semiparametric model is misspecified. In this paper, we apply the density-ratio estimator to obtain the weight function in the semi-supervised learning. The benefit of our approach is that the proposed estimator does not require well-specified probabilistic models for the probability of the unlabeled data. Based on the statistical asymptotic theory, we prove that the estimation accuracy of our method outperforms the supervised learning using only labeled data. Some numerical experiments present the usefulness of our methods.

Department of Statistics, Rice University Abstract High-dimensional data common in genomics, proteomics, and chemometrics often contains complicated correlation structures. Recently, partial least squares (PLS) and Sparse PLS methods have gained attention in these areas as dimension reduction techniques in the context of supervised data analysis. We introduce a framework for Regularized PLS by solving a relaxation of the SIMPLS optimization problem with penalties on the PLS loadings vectors. Our approach enjoys many advantages including flexibility, general penalties, easy interpretation of results, and fast computation in high-dimensional settings. We also outline extensions of our methods leading to novel methods for Nonnegative PLS and Generalized PLS, an adaption of PLS for structured data. We demonstrate the utility of our methods through simulations and a case study on proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy data. To whom correspondence should be addressed; Department of Statistics, Rice University, MS 138, 6100 Main St., Houston, TX 77005 (email: gallen@rice.edu) 1 Introduction Technologies to measure high-throughput biomedical data in proteomics, chemometrics, and genomics have led to a proliferation of high-dimensional data that pose many statistical challenges. As genes, proteins, and metabolites, are biologically interconnected, the variables in these data sets are often highly correlated. In this context, several have recently advocated using partial least squares (PLS) for dimension reduction of supervised data, or data with a response or labels (Nguyen and Rocke, 2002b; Boulesteix and Strimmer, 2007; Rossouw et al., 2008; Chun and Keleş, 2010). First introduced by Wold (1966) as a regression method that uses least squares on a set of derived inputs accounting for multi-colinearities, others have since proposed alternative methods for PLS with multiple responses (de Jong, 1993) and for classification (Marx, 1996; Barker and Rayens, 2003).

We propose a framework for the derivation and evaluation of distributed iterative algorithms for receiver cooperation in interference-limited wireless systems. Our approach views the processing within and collaboration between receivers as the solution to an inference problem in the probabilistic model of the whole system. The probabilistic model is formulated to explicitly incorporate the receivers' ability to share information of a predefined type. We employ a recently proposed unified message-passing tool to infer the variables of interest in the factor graph representation of the probabilistic model. The exchange of information between receivers arises in the form of passing messages along some specific edges of the factor graph; the rate of updating and passing these messages determines the communication overhead associated with cooperation. Simulation results illustrate the high performance of the proposed algorithm even with a low number of message exchanges between receivers.

Successive elimination of candidates is often a route to making manipulation intractable to compute. We prove that eliminating candidates does not necessarily increase the computational complexity of manipulation. However, for many voting rules used in practice, the computational complexity increases. For example, it is already known that it is NP-hard to compute how a single voter can manipulate the result of single transferable voting (the elimination version of plurality voting). We show here that it is NP-hard to compute how a single voter can manipulate the result of the elimination version of veto voting, of the closely related Coombs' rule, and of the elimination versions of a general class of scoring rules.

Statistical evidence of the influence of neighborhood topology on the performance of particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms has been shown in many works. However, little has been done about the implications could have the percolation threshold in determining the topology of this neighborhood. This work addresses this problem for individuals that, like robots, are able to sense in a limited neighborhood around them. Based on the concept of percolation threshold, and more precisely, the disk percolation model in 2D, we show that better results are obtained for low values of radius, when individuals occasionally ask others their best visited positions, with the consequent decrease of computational complexity. On the other hand, since percolation threshold is a universal measure, it could have a great interest to compare the performance of different hybrid PSO algorithms.