Robust policy optimization acknowledges that risk-aversion plays a vital role in real-world decision-making. When faced with uncertainty about the effects of actions, the policy that maximizes expected utility over the unknown parameters of the system may also carry with it a risk of intolerably poor performance. One might prefer to accept lower utility in expectation in order to avoid, or reduce the likelihood of, unacceptable levels of utility under harmful parameter realizations. In this paper, we take a Bayesian approach to parameter uncertainty, but unlike other methods avoid making any distributional assumptions about the form of this uncertainty. Instead we focus on identifying optimization objectives for which solutions can be efficiently approximated. We introduce percentile measures: a very general class of objectives for robust policy optimization, which encompasses most existing approaches, including ones known to be intractable. We then introduce a broad subclass of this family for which robust policies can be approximated efficiently. Finally, we frame these objectives in the context of a two-player, zero-sum, extensive-form game and employ a no-regret algorithm to approximate an optimal policy, with computation only polynomial in the number of states and actions of the MDP.

Markov logic is a widely used tool in statistical relational learning, which uses a weighted first-order logic knowledge base to specify a Markov random field (MRF) or a conditional random field (CRF). In many applications, a Markov logic network (MLN) is trained in one domain, but used in a different one. This paper focuses on dynamic Markov logic networks, where the domain of time points typically varies between training and testing. It has been previously pointed out that the marginal probabilities of truth assignments to ground atoms can change if one extends or reduces the domains of predicates in an MLN. We show that in addition to this problem, the standard way of unrolling a Markov logic theory into a MRF may result in time-inhomogeneity of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, even if these representational problems are not significant for a given domain, we show that the more practical problem of generating samples in a sequential conditional random field for the next slice relying on the samples from the previous slice has high computational cost in the general case, due to the need to estimate a normalization factor for each sample. We propose a new discriminative model, slice normalized dynamic Markov logic networks (SN-DMLN), that suffers from none of these issues. It supports efficient online inference, and can directly model influences between variables within a time slice that do not have a causal direction, in contrast with fully directed models (e.g., DBNs). Experimental results show an improvement in accuracy over previous approaches to online inference in dynamic Markov logic networks.

A key function of brains is undoubtedly the abstraction and maintenance of information from the environment for later use. Neurons in association cortex play an important role in this process: during learning these neurons become tuned to relevant features and represent the information that is required later as a persistent elevation of their activity. It is however not well known how these neurons acquire their task-relevant tuning. Here we introduce a biologically plausible learning scheme that explains how neurons become selective for relevant information when animals learn by trial and error. We propose that the action selection stage feeds back attentional signals to earlier processing levels. These feedback signals interact with feedforward signals to form synaptic tags at those connections that are responsible for the stimulus-response mapping. A globally released neuromodulatory signal interacts with these tagged synapses to determine the sign and strength of plasticity. The learning scheme is generic because it can train networks in different tasks, simply by varying inputs and rewards. It explains how neurons in association cortex learn to (1) temporarily store task-relevant information in non-linear stimulus-response mapping tasks and (2) learn to optimally integrate probabilistic evidence for perceptual decision making.

The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, depression, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In the present paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows us to integrate out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts.

We present a novel method for learning densities with bounded support which enables us to incorporate `hard' topological constraints. In particular, we show how emerging techniques from computational algebraic topology and the notion of Persistent Homology can be combined with kernel based methods from Machine Learning for the purpose of density estimation. The proposed formalism facilitates learning of models with bounded support in a principled way, and -- by incorporating Persistent Homology techniques in our approach -- we are able to encode algebraic-topological constraints which are not addressed in current state-of the art probabilistic models. We study the behaviour of our method on two synthetic examples for various sample sizes and exemplify the benefits of the proposed approach on a real-world data-set by learning a motion model for a racecar. We show how to learn a model which respects the underlying topological structure of the racetrack, constraining the trajectories of the car.

One of the main challenges in data clustering is to define an appropriate similarity measure between two objects. Crowdclustering addresses this challenge by defining the pairwise similarity based on the manual annotations obtained through crowdsourcing. Despite its encouraging results, a key limitation of crowdclustering is that it can only cluster objects when their manual annotations are available. To address this limitation, we propose a new approach for clustering, called \textit{semi-crowdsourced clustering} that effectively combines the low-level features of objects with the manual annotations of a subset of the objects obtained via crowdsourcing. The key idea is to learn an appropriate similarity measure, based on the low-level features of objects, from the manual annotations of only a small portion of the data to be clustered. One difficulty in learning the pairwise similarity measure is that there is a significant amount of noise and inter-worker variations in the manual annotations obtained via crowdsourcing. We address this difficulty by developing a metric learning algorithm based on the matrix completion method. Our empirical study with two real-world image data sets shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art distance metric learning algorithms in both clustering accuracy and computational efficiency.

We address the problem of comparing the risks of two given predictive models - for instance, a baseline model and a challenger - as confidently as possible on a fixed labeling budget. This problem occurs whenever models cannot be compared on held-out training data, possibly because the training data are unavailable or do not reflect the desired test distribution. In this case, new test instances have to be drawn and labeled at a cost. We devise an active comparison method that selects instances according to an instrumental sampling distribution. We derive the sampling distribution that maximizes the power of a statistical test applied to the observed empirical risks, and thereby minimizes the likelihood of choosing the inferior model. Empirically, we investigate model selection problems on several classification and regression tasks and study the accuracy of the resulting p-values.

Sparse linear (or generalized linear) models combine a standard likelihood function with a sparse prior on the unknown coefficients. These priors can conveniently be expressed as a maximization over zero-mean Gaussians with different variance hyperparameters. Standard MAP estimation (Type I) involves maximizing over both the hyperparameters and coefficients, while an empirical Bayesian alternative (Type II) first marginalizes the coefficients and then maximizes over the hyperparameters, leading to a tractable posterior approximation. The underlying cost functions can be related via a dual-space framework from Wipf et al. (2011), which allows both the Type I or Type II objectives to be expressed in either coefficient or hyperparmeter space. This perspective is useful because some analyses or extensions are more conducive to development in one space or the other. Herein we consider the estimation of a trade-off parameter balancing sparsity and data fit. As this parameter is effectively a variance, natural estimators exist by assessing the problem in hyperparameter (variance) space, transitioning natural ideas from Type II to solve what is much less intuitive for Type I. In contrast, for analyses of update rules and sparsity properties of local and global solutions, as well as extensions to more general likelihood models, we can leverage coefficient-space techniques developed for Type I and apply them to Type II. For example, this allows us to prove that Type II-inspired techniques can be successful recovering sparse coefficients when unfavorable restricted isometry properties (RIP) lead to failure of popular L1 reconstructions. It also facilitates the analysis of Type II when non-Gaussian likelihood models lead to intractable integrations.

Most existing hashing methods adopt some projection functions to project the original data into several dimensions of real values, and then each of these projected dimensions is quantized into one bit (zero or one) by thresholding. Typically, the variances of different projected dimensions are different for existing projection functions such as principal component analysis (PCA). Using the same number of bits for different projected dimensions is unreasonable because larger-variance dimensions will carry more information. Although this viewpoint has been widely accepted by many researchers, it is still not verified by either theory or experiment because no methods have been proposed to find a projection with equal variances for different dimensions. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called isotropic hashing (IsoHash), to learn projection functions which can produce projected dimensions with isotropic variances (equal variances). Experimental results on real data sets show that IsoHash can outperform its counterpart with different variances for different dimensions, which verifies the viewpoint that projections with isotropic variances will be better than those with anisotropic variances.

Sparse graphical modelling/inverse covariance selection is an important problem in machine learning and has seen significant advances in recent years. A major focus has been on methods which perform model selection in high dimensions. To this end, numerous convex $\ell_1$ regularization approaches have been proposed in the literature. It is not however clear which of these methods are optimal in any well-defined sense. A major gap in this regard pertains to the rate of convergence of proposed optimization methods. To address this, an iterative thresholding algorithm for numerically solving the $\ell_1$-penalized maximum likelihood problem for sparse inverse covariance estimation is presented. The proximal gradient method considered in this paper is shown to converge at a linear rate, a result which is the first of its kind for numerically solving the sparse inverse covariance estimation problem. The convergence rate is provided in closed form, and is related to the condition number of the optimal point. Numerical results demonstrating the proven rate of convergence are presented.