In this paper we explore a class of belief update operators, in which the definition of the operator is compositional with respect to the sentence to be added. The goal is to provide an update operator that is intuitive, in that its definition is based on a recursive decomposition of the update sentences structure, and that may be reasonably implemented. In addressing update, we first provide a definition phrased in terms of the models of a knowledge base. While this operator satisfies a core group of the benchmark Katsuno-Mendelzon update postulates, not all of the postulates are satisfied. Other Katsuno-Mendelzon postulates can be obtained by suitably restricting the syntactic form of the sentence for update, as we show. In restricting the syntactic form of the sentence for update, we also obtain a hierarchy of update operators with Winsletts standard semantics as the most basic interesting approach captured. We subsequently give an algorithm which captures this approach; in the general case the algorithm is exponential, but with some not-unreasonable assumptions we obtain an algorithm that is linear in the size of the knowledge base. Hence the resulting approach has much better complexity characteristics than other operators in some situations. We also explore other compositional belief change operators: erasure is developed as a dual operator to update; we show that a forget operator is definable in terms of update; and we give a definition of the compositional revision operator. We obtain that compositional revision, under the most natural definition, yields the Satoh revision operator.

Literature on Constraint Satisfaction exhibits the definition of several structural properties that can be possessed by CSPs, like (in)consistency, substitutability or interchangeability. Current tools for constraint solving typically detect such properties efficiently by means of incomplete yet effective algorithms, and use them to reduce the search space and boost search. In this paper, we provide a unifying framework encompassing most of the properties known so far, both in CSP and other fields literature, and shed light on the semantical relationships among them. This gives a unified and comprehensive view of the topic, allows new, unknown, properties to emerge, and clarifies the computational complexity of the various detection problems. In particular, among the others, two new concepts, fixability and removability emerge, that come out to be the ideal characterisations of values that may be safely assigned or removed from a variables domain, while preserving problem satisfiability. These two notions subsume a large number of known properties, including inconsistency, substitutability and others. Because of the computational intractability of all the property-detection problems, by following the CSP approach we then determine a number of relaxations which provide sufficient conditions for their tractability. In particular, we exploit forms of language restrictions and local reasoning.

We consider the problem of optimal planning in stochastic domains with resource constraints, where the resources are continuous and the choice of action at each step depends on resource availability. We introduce the HAO* algorithm, a generalization of the AO* algorithm that performs search in a hybrid state space that is modeled using both discrete and continuous state variables, where the continuous variables represent monotonic resources. Like other heuristic search algorithms, HAO* leverages knowledge of the start state and an admissible heuristic to focus computational effort on those parts of the state space that could be reached from the start state by following an optimal policy. We show that this approach is especially effective when resource constraints limit how much of the state space is reachable. Experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness in the domain that motivates our research: automated planning for planetary exploration rovers.

This paper defines the notion of analogical dissimilarity between four objects, with a special focus on objects structured as sequences. Firstly, it studies the case where the four objects have a null analogical dissimilarity, i.e. are in analogical proportion. Secondly, when one of these objects is unknown, it gives algorithms to compute it. Thirdly, it tackles the problem of defining analogical dissimilarity, which is a measure of how far four objects are from being in analogical proportion. In particular, when objects are sequences, it gives a definition and an algorithm based on an optimal alignment of the four sequences. It gives also learning algorithms, i.e. methods to find the triple of objects in a learning sample which has the least analogical dissimilarity with a given object. Two practical experiments are described: the first is a classification problem on benchmarks of binary and nominal data, the second shows how the generation of sequences by solving analogical equations enables a handwritten character recognition system to rapidly be adapted to a new writer.

This paper presents Networks of Influence Diagrams (NID), a compact, natural and highly expressive language for reasoning about agents' beliefs and decision-making processes. NIDs are graphical structures in which agents' mental models are represented as nodes in a network; a mental model for an agent may itself use descriptions of the mental models of other agents. NIDs are demonstrated by examples, showing how they can be used to describe conflicting and cyclic belief structures, and certain forms of bounded rationality. In an opponent modeling domain, NIDs were able to outperform other computational agents whose strategies were not known in advance. NIDs are equivalent in representation to Bayesian games but they are more compact and structured than this formalism. In particular, the equilibrium definition for NIDs makes an explicit distinction between agents' optimal strategies, and how they actually behave in reality.

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning models are used in decision analysis. This paper presents two new non-parametric methods for calibrating outputs of binary classification models: a method based on the Bayes optimal selection and a method based on the Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of these methods is that they are independent of the algorithm used to learn a predictive model, and they can be applied in a post-processing step, after the model is learned. This makes them applicable to a wide variety of machine learning models and methods. These calibration methods, as well as other methods, are tested on a variety of datasets in terms of both discrimination and calibration performance. The results show the methods either outperform or are comparable in performance to the state-of-the-art calibration methods.

Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical tool to handle these likelihood free problems, but they require a very large number of simulations. In this work we develop two new ABC sampling algorithms that significantly reduce the number of simulations necessary for posterior inference. Both algorithms use confidence estimates for the accept probability in the Metropolis Hastings step to adaptively choose the number of necessary simulations. Our GPS-ABC algorithm stores the information obtained from every simulation in a Gaussian process which acts as a surrogate function for the simulated statistics. Experiments on a challenging realistic biological problem illustrate the potential of these algorithms.

We present an efficient algorithm for the inference of stochastic block models in large networks. The algorithm can be used as an optimized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, with a fast mixing time and a much reduced susceptibility to getting trapped in metastable states, or as a greedy agglomerative heuristic, with an almost linear $O(N\ln^2N)$ complexity, where $N$ is the number of nodes in the network, independent on the number of blocks being inferred. We show that the heuristic is capable of delivering results which are indistinguishable from the more exact and numerically expensive MCMC method in many artificial and empirical networks, despite being much faster. The method is entirely unbiased towards any specific mixing pattern, and in particular it does not favor assortative community structures.

Recently, a number of mostly $\ell_1$-norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective, this task is equivalent to maximum a posteriori probability estimation under a sparsity promoting heavy-tailed prior for the parameters of interest. Following a different approach, this paper develops a unifying framework of sparse \emph{variational Bayes} algorithms that employ heavy-tailed priors in conjugate hierarchical form to facilitate posterior inference. The resulting fully automated variational schemes are first presented in a batch iterative form. Then it is shown that by properly exploiting the structure of the batch estimation task, new sparse adaptive variational Bayes algorithms can be derived, which have the ability to impose and track sparsity during real-time processing in a time-varying environment. The most important feature of the proposed algorithms is that they completely eliminate the need for computationally costly parameter fine-tuning, a necessary ingredient of sparse adaptive deterministic algorithms. Extensive simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new sparse variational Bayes algorithms against state-of-the-art deterministic techniques for adaptive channel estimation. The results show that the proposed algorithms are numerically robust and exhibit in general superior estimation performance compared to their deterministic counterparts.

We assume data sampled from a mixture of d-dimensional linear subspaces with spherically symmetric distributions within each subspace and an additional outlier component with spherically symmetric distribution within the ambient space (for simplicity we may assume that all distributions are uniform on their corresponding unit spheres). We also assume mixture weights for the different components. We say that one of the underlying subspaces of the model is most significant if its mixture weight is higher than the sum of the mixture weights of all other subspaces. We study the recovery of the most significant subspace by minimizing the lp-averaged distances of data points from d-dimensional subspaces, where p>0. Unlike other lp minimization problems, this minimization is non-convex for all p>0 and thus requires different methods for its analysis. We show that if 01 and there is more than one underlying subspace, then with overwhelming probability the most significant subspace cannot be recovered or nearly recovered. This last result does not require spherically symmetric outliers.