Bayesian networks are a useful tool in the representation of uncertain knowledge. This paper proposes a new algorithm called ACO-E, to learn the structure of a Bayesian network. It does this by conducting a search through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). To this end, two novel extensions of traditional ACO techniques are proposed and implemented. Firstly, multiple types of moves are allowed. Secondly, moves can be given in terms of indices that are not based on construction graph nodes. The results of testing show that ACO-E performs better than a greedy search and other state-of-the-art and metaheuristic algorithms whilst searching in the space of equivalence classes.

In the last two decades, modal and description logics have been applied to numerous areas of computer science, including knowledge representation, formal verification, database theory, distributed computing and, more recently, semantic web and ontologies. For this reason, the problem of automated reasoning in modal and description logics has been thoroughly investigated. In particular, many approaches have been proposed for efficiently handling the satisfiability of the core normal modal logic K(m), and of its notational variant, the description logic ALC. Although simple in structure, K(m)/ALC is computationally very hard to reason on, its satisfiability being PSPACE-complete. In this paper we start exploring the idea of performing automated reasoning tasks in modal and description logics by encoding them into SAT, so that to be handled by state-of-the-art SAT tools; as with most previous approaches, we begin our investigation from the satisfiability in K(m). We propose an efficient encoding, and we test it on an extensive set of benchmarks, comparing the approach with the main state-of-the-art tools available. Although the encoding is necessarily worst-case exponential, from our experiments we notice that, in practice, this approach can handle most or all the problems which are at the reach of the other approaches, with performances which are comparable with, or even better than, those of the current state-of-the-art tools.

Multiagent planning and coordination problems are common and known to be computationally hard. We show that a wide range of two-agent problems can be formulated as bilinear programs. We present a successive approximation algorithm that significantly outperforms the coverage set algorithm, which is the state-of-the-art method for this class of multiagent problems. Because the algorithm is formulated for bilinear programs, it is more general and simpler to implement. The new algorithm can be terminated at any time and-unlike the coverage set algorithm-it facilitates the derivation of a useful online performance bound. It is also much more efficient, on average reducing the computation time of the optimal solution by about four orders of magnitude. Finally, we introduce an automatic dimensionality reduction method that improves the effectiveness of the algorithm, extending its applicability to new domains and providing a new way to analyze a subclass of bilinear programs.

Coordination of distributed agents is required for problems arising in many areas, including multi-robot systems, networking and e-commerce. As a formal framework for such problems, we use the decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP). Though much work has been done on optimal dynamic programming algorithms for the single-agent version of the problem, optimal algorithms for the multiagent case have been elusive. The main contribution of this paper is an optimal policy iteration algorithm for solving DEC-POMDPs. The algorithm uses stochastic finite-state controllers to represent policies. The solution can include a correlation device, which allows agents to correlate their actions without communicating. This approach alternates between expanding the controller and performing value-preserving transformations, which modify the controller without sacrificing value. We present two efficient value-preserving transformations: one can reduce the size of the controller and the other can improve its value while keeping the size fixed. Empirical results demonstrate the usefulness of value-preserving transformations in increasing value while keeping controller size to a minimum. To broaden the applicability of the approach, we also present a heuristic version of the policy iteration algorithm, which sacrifices convergence to optimality. This algorithm further reduces the size of the controllers at each step by assuming that probability distributions over the other agents actions are known. While this assumption may not hold in general, it helps produce higher quality solutions in our test problems.

Various tasks in decision making and decision support systems require selecting a preferred subset of a given set of items. Here we focus on problems where the individual items are described using a set of characterizing attributes, and a generic preference specification is required, that is, a specification that can work with an arbitrary set of items. For example, preferences over the content of an online newspaper should have this form: At each viewing, the newspaper contains a subset of the set of articles currently available. Our preference specification over this subset should be provided offline, but we should be able to use it to select a subset of any currently available set of articles, e.g., based on their tags. We present a general approach for lifting formalisms for specifying preferences over objects with multiple attributes into ones that specify preferences over subsets of such objects. We also show how we can compute an optimal subset given such a specification in a relatively efficient manner. We provide an empirical evaluation of the approach as well as some worst-case complexity results.

Inference in Bayes Nets (BAYES) is an important problem with numerous applications in probabilistic reasoning. Counting the number of satisfying assignments of a propositional formula (#SAT) is a closely related problem of fundamental theoretical importance. Both these problems, and others, are members of the class of sum-of-products (SUMPROD) problems. In this paper we show that standard backtracking search when augmented with a simple memoization scheme (caching) can solve any sum-of-products problem with time complexity that is at least as good any other state-of-the-art exact algorithm, and that it can also achieve the best known time-space tradeoff. Furthermore, backtracking's ability to utilize more flexible variable orderings allows us to prove that it can achieve an exponential speedup over other standard algorithms for SUMPROD on some instances. The ideas presented here have been utilized in a number of solvers that have been applied to various types of sum-of-product problems. These system's have exploited the fact that backtracking can naturally exploit more of the problem's structure to achieve improved performance on a range of probleminstances. Empirical evidence of this performance gain has appeared in published works describing these solvers, and we provide references to these works.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled framework for sequential planning in uncertain single agent settings. An extension of POMDPs to multiagent settings, called interactive POMDPs (I-POMDPs), replaces POMDP belief spaces with interactive hierarchical belief systems which represent an agent's belief about the physical world, about beliefs of other agents, and about their beliefs about others' beliefs. This modification makes the difficulties of obtaining solutions due to complexity of the belief and policy spaces even more acute. We describe a general method for obtaining approximate solutions of I-POMDPs based on particle filtering (PF). We introduce the interactive PF, which descends the levels of the interactive belief hierarchies and samples and propagates beliefs at each level. The interactive PF is able to mitigate the belief space complexity, but it does not address the policy space complexity. To mitigate the policy space complexity -- sometimes also called the curse of history -- we utilize a complementary method based on sampling likely observations while building the look ahead reachability tree. While this approach does not completely address the curse of history, it beats back the curse's impact substantially. We provide experimental results and chart future work.

Inspired by the recently introduced framework of AND/OR search spaces for graphical models, we propose to augment Multi-Valued Decision Diagrams (MDD) with AND nodes, in order to capture function decomposition structure and to extend these compiled data structures to general weighted graphical models (e.g., probabilistic models). We present the AND/OR Multi-Valued Decision Diagram (AOMDD) which compiles a graphical model into a canonical form that supports polynomial (e.g., solution counting, belief updating) or constant time (e.g. equivalence of graphical models) queries. We provide two algorithms for compiling the AOMDD of a graphical model. The first is search-based, and works by applying reduction rules to the trace of the memory intensive AND/OR search algorithm. The second is inference-based and uses a Bucket Elimination schedule to combine the AOMDDs of the input functions via the the APPLY operator. For both algorithms, the compilation time and the size of the AOMDD are, in the worst case, exponential in the treewidth of the graphical model, rather than pathwidth as is known for ordered binary decision diagrams (OBDDs). We introduce the concept of semantic treewidth, which helps explain why the size of a decision diagram is often much smaller than the worst case bound. We provide an experimental evaluation that demonstrates the potential of AOMDDs.

A phylogenetic tree shows the evolutionary relationships among species. Internal nodes of the tree represent speciation events and leaf nodes correspond to species. A goal of phylogenetics is to combine such trees into larger trees, called supertrees, whilst respecting the relationships in the original trees. A rooted tree exhibits an ultrametric property; that is, for any three leaves of the tree it must be that one pair has a deeper most recent common ancestor than the other pairs, or that all three have the same most recent common ancestor. This inspires a constraint programming encoding for rooted trees. We present an efficient constraint that enforces the ultrametric property over a symmetric array of constrained integer variables, with the inevitable property that the lower bounds of any three variables are mutually supportive. We show that this allows an efficient constraint-based solution to the supertree construction problem. We demonstrate that the versatility of constraint programming can be exploited to allow solutions to variants of the supertree construction problem.

Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The other approach is to use some post-processing methods for transforming the output of a classifier to be well calibrated, as for example histogram binning, Platt scaling, and isotonic regression. One advantage of the post-processing approach is that it can be applied to any existing probabilistic classification model that was constructed using any machine-learning method. In this paper, we first introduce two measures for evaluating how well a classifier is calibrated. We prove three theorems showing that using a simple histogram binning post-processing method, it is possible to make a classifier be well calibrated while retaining its discrimination capability. Also, by casting the histogram binning method as a density-based non-parametric binary classifier, we can extend it using two simple non-parametric density estimation methods. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed calibration methods on synthetic and real datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed methods either outperform or are comparable to existing calibration methods.