Inferring causal relationships is a major challenge in science. In the last decades considerable effort has been made in order to learn causal statements from observational data. Causal discovery methods make assumptions that relate the joint distribution with properties of the causal graph. Constraintbased or independence-based methods [Pearl, 2009, Spirtes et al., 2000] and some score-based methods [Chickering, 2002, Heckerman et al., 1999] assume the Markov condition and faithfulness. A distribution is said to be Markov with respect to a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G if each d-separation in the graph implies the corresponding (conditional) independence; the distribution is faithful with respect to G if the reverse statement holds. These 1 two assumptions render the Markov equivalence class of the correct graph identifiable from the joint distribution, i.e. the skeleton and the v-structures of the graph can be inferred from the joint distribution [Verma and Pearl, 1991]. Methods like LiNGAM [Shimizu et al., 2006] or additive noise models [Hoyer et al., 2009, Peters et al., 2013] assume the Markov condition, too, but do not require faithfulness; instead, these methods assume that the structural equations come from a restricted model class (e.g.

We develop a primal dual active set with continuation algorithm for solving the \ell^0-regularized least-squares problem that frequently arises in compressed sensing. The algorithm couples the the primal dual active set method with a continuation strategy on the regularization parameter. At each inner iteration, it first identifies the active set from both primal and dual variables, and then updates the primal variable by solving a (typically small) least-squares problem defined on the active set, from which the dual variable can be updated explicitly. Under certain conditions on the sensing matrix, i.e., mutual incoherence property or restricted isometry property, and the noise level, the finite step global convergence of the algorithm is established. Extensive numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the algorithm and the convergence analysis.

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is powerful classification technique based on the idea of structural risk minimization. Use of kernel function enables curse of dimensionality to be addressed. However, proper kernel function for certain problem is dependent on specific dataset and as such there is no good method on choice of kernel function. In this paper, SVM is used to build empirical models of currency crisis in Argentina. An estimation technique is developed by training model on real life data set which provides reasonably accurate model outputs and helps policy makers to identify situations in which currency crisis may happen. The third and fourth order polynomial kernel is generally best choice to achieve high generalization of classifier performance. SVM has high level of maturity with algorithms that are simple, easy to implement, tolerates curse of dimensionality and good empirical performance. The satisfactory results show that currency crisis situation is properly emulated using only small fraction of database and could be used as an evaluation tool as well as an early warning system. To the best of knowledge this is the first work on SVM approach for currency crisis evaluation of Argentina.

We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The analysis shows that the whole market effectively approaches a global objective, despite that the market is designed such that each agent only cares about its own goal. Additionally, the market dynamics provides a sensible algorithm for optimising the global objective. An intimate connection between machine learning and our markets is thus established, such that we could 1) analyse a market by applying machine learning methods to the global objective, and 2) solve machine learning problems by setting up and running certain markets.

Traditional nearest points methods use all the samples in an image set to construct a single convex or affine hull model for classification. However, strong artificial features and noisy data may be generated from combinations of training samples when significant intra-class variations and/or noise occur in the image set. Existing multi-model approaches extract local models by clustering each image set individually only once, with fixed clusters used for matching with various image sets. This may not be optimal for discrimination, as undesirable environmental conditions (eg. illumination and pose variations) may result in the two closest clusters representing different characteristics of an object (eg. frontal face being compared to non-frontal face). To address the above problem, we propose a novel approach to enhance nearest points based methods by integrating affine/convex hull classification with an adapted multi-model approach. We first extract multiple local convex hulls from a query image set via maximum margin clustering to diminish the artificial variations and constrain the noise in local convex hulls. We then propose adaptive reference clustering (ARC) to constrain the clustering of each gallery image set by forcing the clusters to have resemblance to the clusters in the query image set. By applying ARC, noisy clusters in the query set can be discarded. Experiments on Honda, MoBo and ETH-80 datasets show that the proposed method outperforms single model approaches and other recent techniques, such as Sparse Approximated Nearest Points, Mutual Subspace Method and Manifold Discriminant Analysis.

With the rapid development of social media sharing, people often need to manage the growing volume of multimedia data such as large scale video classification and annotation, especially to organize those videos containing human activities. Recently, manifold regularized semi-supervised learning (SSL), which explores the intrinsic data probability distribution and then improves the generalization ability with only a small number of labeled data, has emerged as a promising paradigm for semiautomatic video classification. In addition, human action videos often have multi-modal content and different representations. To tackle the above problems, in this paper we propose multiview Hessian regularized logistic regression (mHLR) for human action recognition. Compared with existing work, the advantages of mHLR lie in three folds: (1) mHLR combines multiple Hessian regularization, each of which obtained from a particular representation of instance, to leverage the exploring of local geometry; (2) mHLR naturally handle multi-view instances with multiple representations; (3) mHLR employs a smooth loss function and then can be effectively optimized. We carefully conduct extensive experiments on the unstructured social activity attribute (USAA) dataset and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed multiview Hessian regularized logistic regression for human action recognition.

A robust visual tracking system requires an object appearance model that is able to handle occlusion, pose, and illumination variations in the video stream. This can be difficult to accomplish when the model is trained using only a single image. In this paper, we first propose a tracking approach based on affine subspaces (constructed from several images) which are able to accommodate the abovementioned variations. We use affine subspaces not only to represent the object, but also the candidate areas that the object may occupy. We furthermore propose a novel approach to measure affine subspace-to-subspace distance via the use of non-Euclidean geometry of Grassmann manifolds. The tracking problem is then considered as an inference task in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework via particle filtering. Quantitative evaluation on challenging video sequences indicates that the proposed approach obtains considerably better performance than several recent state-of-the-art methods such as Tracking-Learning-Detection and MILtrack.

This paper addresses the problem of blind and fully constrained unmixing of hyperspectral images. Unmixing is performed without the use of any dictionary, and assumes that the number of constituent materials in the scene and their spectral signatures are unknown. The estimated abundances satisfy the desired sum-to-one and nonnegativity constraints. Two models with increasing complexity are developed to achieve this challenging task, depending on how noise interacts with hyperspectral data. The first one leads to a convex optimization problem, and is solved with the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers. The second one accounts for signal-dependent noise, and is addressed with a Reweighted Least Squares algorithm. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

We propose a new stochastic coordinate descent method for minimizing the sum of convex functions each of which depends on a small number of coordinates only. Our method (APPROX) is simultaneously Accelerated, Parallel and PROXimal; this is the first time such a method is proposed. In the special case when the number of processors is equal to the number of coordinates, the method converges at the rate $2\bar{\omega}\bar{L} R^2/(k+1)^2 $, where $k$ is the iteration counter, $\bar{\omega}$ is an average degree of separability of the loss function, $\bar{L}$ is the average of Lipschitz constants associated with the coordinates and individual functions in the sum, and $R$ is the distance of the initial point from the minimizer. We show that the method can be implemented without the need to perform full-dimensional vector operations, which is the major bottleneck of existing accelerated coordinate descent methods. The fact that the method depends on the average degree of separability, and not on the maximum degree of separability, can be attributed to the use of new safe large stepsizes, leading to improved expected separable overapproximation (ESO). These are of independent interest and can be utilized in all existing parallel stochastic coordinate descent algorithms based on the concept of ESO.

Bayesian optimization is a powerful global optimization technique for expensive black-box functions. One of its shortcomings is that it requires auxiliary optimization of an acquisition function at each iteration. This auxiliary optimization can be costly and very hard to carry out in practice. Moreover, it creates serious theoretical concerns, as most of the convergence results assume that the exact optimum of the acquisition function can be found. In this paper, we introduce a new technique for efficient global optimization that combines Gaussian process confidence bounds and treed simultaneous optimistic optimization to eliminate the need for auxiliary optimization of acquisition functions. The experiments with global optimization benchmarks and a novel application to automatic information extraction demonstrate that the resulting technique is more efficient than the two approaches from which it draws inspiration. Unlike most theoretical analyses of Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes, our finite-time convergence rate proofs do not require exact optimization of an acquisition function. That is, our approach eliminates the unsatisfactory assumption that a difficult, potentially NP-hard, problem has to be solved in order to obtain vanishing regret rates.