The analysis of high dimensional data, in which the number of measured predictors is large and can exceed the number of samples, is an important and common problem in statistical applications. When samples are accompanied by a real or categorical response, data analysis typically includes model fitting with the aim of doing prediction or variable selection, or both. The goal of prediction is to derive a rule capable of accurately predicting the response of a new, unlabeled sample. The goal of variable selection is to select a (small) subset of the measured predictors whose individual or coordinated activity is significantly related to the response. In both cases, it is common to assume that the observed data arise from an underlying model that is sparse, in the sense that only a small subset of the predictors are related to the response. Whether sparsity is assumed, or viewed as a desirable feature of a model, analysis of high dimensional data is often carried out by penalized methods that produce models in which a relatively small subset of the available predictors are included. Popular penalized methods include the LASSO (Tibshirani, 1996), its numerous variations, and SCAD (Fan and Li, 2001). In what follows, we focus our attention on the LASSO. The LASSO and its variants require specification of a penalty/tuning parameter that controls the tradeoff between model fit and model size.

The problem of recovering a low $n$-rank tensor is an extension of sparse recovery problem from the low dimensional space (matrix space) to the high dimensional space (tensor space) and has many applications in computer vision and graphics such as image inpainting and video inpainting. In this paper, we consider a new tensor recovery model, named as minimum $n$-rank approximation (MnRA), and propose an appropriate iterative hard thresholding algorithm with giving the upper bound of the $n$-rank in advance. The convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is also presented. Particularly, we show that for the noiseless case, the linear convergence with rate $\frac{1}{2}$ can be obtained for the proposed algorithm under proper conditions. Additionally, combining an effective heuristic for determining $n$-rank, we can also apply the proposed algorithm to solve MnRA when $n$-rank is unknown in advance. Some preliminary numerical results on randomly generated and real low $n$-rank tensor completion problems are reported, which show the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Archetypal analysis (AA) represents observations as composition of pure patterns, i.e., archetypes, or equivalently convex combinations of extreme values (Cutler and Breiman, 1994). Although AA bears resemblance with many well established prototypical analysis tools, such as principal component analysis (PCA, Mohamed et al, 2009), nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF, F evotte and Idier, 2011), probabilistic latent semantic analysis (Hofmann, 2013), andk -means (Steinley, 2006); AA is arguably unique, both conceptually and computationally . Conceptually, AA imitates the human tendency of representing a group of objects by its extreme elements (Davis and Love, 2010): this makes AA an interesting exploratory tool for applied scientists (e.g., Eugster, 2012; Seiler and Wohlrabe, 2013). Computationally, AA is data-driven, and requires the factors to be probability vectors: these make AA a computationally demanding tool, yet brings better interpretability . The concept of AA was originally formulated by Cutler and Breiman (1994).

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on out-of-sample data. Using probit regression as an illustrative working example, this paper presents a general and effective methodology based on the pseudo-marginal approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo that efficiently addresses both of these issues. The results presented in this paper show improvements over existing sampling methods to simulate from the posterior distribution over the parameters defining the covariance function of the Gaussian Process prior. This is particularly important as it offers a powerful tool to carry out full Bayesian inference of Gaussian Process based hierarchic statistical models in general. The results also demonstrate that Monte Carlo based integration of all model parameters is actually feasible in this class of models providing a superior quantification of uncertainty in predictions. Extensive comparisons with respect to state-of-the-art probabilistic classifiers confirm this assertion.

In this paper, we propose a new fast and robust recursive algorithm for near-separable nonnegative matrix factorization, a particular nonnegative blind source separation problem. This algorithm, which we refer to as the successive nonnegative projection algorithm (SNPA), is closely related to the popular successive projection algorithm (SPA), but takes advantage of the nonnegativity constraint in the decomposition. We prove that SNPA is more robust than SPA and can be applied to a broader class of nonnegative matrices. This is illustrated on some synthetic data sets, and on a real-world hyperspectral image.

Causal inference relies on the structure of a graph, often a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Different graphs may result in different causal inference statements and different intervention distributions. To quantify such differences, we propose a (pre-) distance between DAGs, the structural intervention distance (SID). The SID is based on a graphical criterion only and quantifies the closeness between two DAGs in terms of their corresponding causal inference statements. It is therefore well-suited for evaluating graphs that are used for computing interventions. Instead of DAGs it is also possible to compare CPDAGs, completed partially directed acyclic graphs that represent Markov equivalence classes. Since it differs significantly from the popular Structural Hamming Distance (SHD), the SID constitutes a valuable additional measure. We discuss properties of this distance and provide an efficient implementation with software code available on the first author's homepage (an R package is under construction).

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a nonlinear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. This selection of algorithms is appealing for two reasons: first, there is strikingly little research in economic time-series forecasting that employs learners beyond neural networks and clustering algorithms, and this construction offers a viable alternative; second, this selection incorporates an array of techniques that have both theoretically optimal classification properties and high empirical success rates in areas outside of finance, in addition to offering a mixture of parametric and nonparametric models. The ensemble committee is augmented by a boosting meta-algorithm and feature selection is performed by a supervised Relief algorithm. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.

AI Challenge Problem: Scalable Models for Patterns of Life

These articles were selected for their description of AI technologies that are either in practical use or close to it. Five of the articles describe deployed application case studies. These articles present fielded AI applications that distinguish themselves for their innovative use of AI technology. One article describes an emerging application. It presents an area where AI technology can have a practical impact. Another article describes a challenge problem; it presents to the AI community at large a problem where AI could make a significant difference.

One of the major challenges to building intelligent educational software is determining what kinds of feedback to give learners. Useful feedback makes use of models of domain-specific knowledge, especially models that are commonly held by potential students. To empirically determine what these models are, student data can be clustered to reveal common misconceptions or common problem-solving strategies. This article describes how analogical retrieval and generalization can be used to cluster automatically analyzed hand-drawn sketches incorporating both spatial and conceptual information. We use this approach to cluster a corpus of hand-drawn student sketches to discover common answers. Common answer clusters can be used for the design of targeted feedback and for assessment.