Bandit based methods for tree search have recently gained popularity when applied to huge trees, e.g. in the game of go [6]. Their efficient exploration of the tree enables to re- turn rapidly a good value, and improve preci- sion if more time is provided. The UCT algo- rithm [8], a tree search method based on Up- per Confidence Bounds (UCB) [2], is believed to adapt locally to the effective smoothness of the tree. However, we show that UCT is "over-optimistic" in some sense, leading to a worst-case regret that may be very poor. We propose alternative bandit algorithms for tree search. First, a modification of UCT us- ing a confidence sequence that scales expo- nentially in the horizon depth is analyzed. We then consider Flat-UCB performed on the leaves and provide a finite regret bound with high probability. Then, we introduce and analyze a Bandit Algorithm for Smooth Trees (BAST) which takes into account ac- tual smoothness of the rewards for perform- ing efficient "cuts" of sub-optimal branches with high confidence. Finally, we present an incremental tree expansion which applies when the full tree is too big (possibly in- finite) to be entirely represented and show that with high probability, only the optimal branches are indefinitely developed. We illus- trate these methods on a global optimization problem of a continuous function, given noisy values.

We present a heuristic search algorithm for solving first-order MDPs (FOMDPs). Our approach combines first-order state abstraction that avoids evaluating states individually, and heuristic search that avoids evaluating all states. Firstly, we apply state abstraction directly on the FOMDP avoiding propositionalization. Such kind of abstraction is referred to as firstorder state abstraction. Secondly, guided by an admissible heuristic, the search is restricted only to those states that are reachable from the initial state. We demonstrate the usefullness of the above techniques for solving FOMDPs on a system, referred to as FCPlanner, that entered the probabilistic track of the International Planning Competition (IPC'2004).

There are several well-known justifications for conditioning as the appropriate method for updating a single probability measure, given an observation. However, there is a significant body of work arguing for sets of probability measures, rather than single measures, as a more realistic model of uncertainty. Conditioning still makes sense in this context--we can simply condition each measure in the set individually, then combine the results--and, indeed, it seems to be the preferred updating procedure in the literature. But how justified is conditioning in this richer setting? Here we show, by considering an axiomatic account of conditioning given by van Fraassen, that the single-measure and sets-of-measures cases are very different. We show that van Fraassen's axiomatization for the former case is nowhere near sufficient for updating sets of measures. We give a considerably longer (and not as compelling) list of axioms that together force conditioning in this setting, and describe other update methods that are allowed once any of these axioms is dropped.

Malicious websites are a major cyber attack vector, and effective detection of them is an important cyber defense task. The main defense paradigm in this regard is that the defender uses some kind of machine learning algorithms to train a detection model, which is then used to classify websites in question. Unlike other settings, the following issue is inherent to the problem of malicious websites detection: the attacker essentially has access to the same data that the defender uses to train its detection models. This 'symmetry' can be exploited by the attacker, at least in principle, to evade the defender's detection models. In this paper, we present a framework for characterizing the evasion and counter-evasion interactions between the attacker and the defender, where the attacker attempts to evade the defender's detection models by taking advantage of this symmetry. Within this framework, we show that an adaptive attacker can make malicious websites evade powerful detection models, but proactive training can be an effective counter-evasion defense mechanism. The framework is geared toward the popular detection model of decision tree, but can be adapted to accommodate other classifiers.

Many people suffer from the loss of a limb. Learning to get by without an arm or hand can be very challenging, and existing prostheses do not yet fulfil the needs of individuals with amputations. One promising solution is to provide greater communication between a prosthesis and its user. Towards this end, we present a simple machine learning interface to supplement the control of a robotic limb with feedback to the user about what the limb will be experiencing in the near future. A real-time prediction learner was implemented to predict impact-related electrical load experienced by a robot limb; the learning system's predictions were then communicated to the device's user to aid in their interactions with a workspace. We tested this system with five able-bodied subjects. Each subject manipulated the robot arm while receiving different forms of vibrotactile feedback regarding the arm's contact with its workspace. Our trials showed that communicable predictions could be learned quickly during human control of the robot arm. Using these predictions as a basis for feedback led to a statistically significant improvement in task performance when compared to purely reactive feedback from the device. Our study therefore contributes initial evidence that prediction learning and machine intelligence can benefit not just control, but also feedback from an artificial limb. We expect that a greater level of acceptance and ownership can be achieved if the prosthesis itself takes an active role in transmitting learned knowledge about its state and its situation of use.

Common wisdom has it that small distinctions in the probabilities quantifying a Bayesian network do not matter much for the resultsof probabilistic queries. However, one can easily develop realistic scenarios under which small variations in network probabilities can lead to significant changes in computed queries. A pending theoretical question is then to analytically characterize parameter changes that do or do not matter. In this paper, we study the sensitivity of probabilistic queries to changes in network parameters and prove some tight bounds on the impact that such parameters can have on queries. Our analytical results pinpoint some interesting situations under which parameter changes do or do not matter. These results are important for knowledge engineers as they help them identify influential network parameters. They are also important for approximate inference algorithms that preprocessnetwork CPTs to eliminate small distinctions in probabilities.

Active Learning (AL) methods seek to improve classifier performance when labels are expensive or scarce. We consider two central questions: Where does AL work? How much does it help? To address these questions, a comprehensive experimental simulation study of Active Learning is presented. We consider a variety of tasks, classifiers and other AL factors, to present a broad exploration of AL performance in various settings. A precise way to quantify performance is needed in order to know when AL works. Thus we also present a detailed methodology for tackling the complexities of assessing AL performance in the context of this experimental study.

We introduce the functional mean-shift algorithm, an iterative algorithm for estimating the local modes of a surrogate density from functional data. We show that the algorithm can be used for cluster analysis of functional data. We propose a test based on the bootstrap for the significance of the estimated local modes of the surrogate density. We present two applications of our methodology. In the first application, we demonstrate how the functional mean-shift algorithm can be used to perform spike sorting, i.e. cluster neural activity curves. In the second application, we use the functional mean-shift algorithm to distinguish between original and fake signatures.

Estimation of population covariance matrices from samples of multivariate data has draw many attentions in the last decade owing to its fundamental importance in multivariate analysis. With dramatic advances in technology in recent years, various research fields, such as genetic data, brain imaging, spectroscopic imaging, climate data and so on, have been used to deal with massive highdimensional data sets, whose sample sizes can be very small relative to dimension. In such settings, the standard and the most usual sample covariance matrices often performs poorly [1, 2, 11]. Fortunately, regularization as a class of new methods to estimate covariance matrices has recently emerged to overcome those shortages of using traditional sample covariance matrices. These methods encompass several specified forms, banding [1, 6, 17], tapering [4, 10] and thresholding [2, 5, 8, 16] for instance.

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs are prohibitive for large-scale problems with arbitrary length and depth. In this contribution, we propose a new approximation technique that may have the potential to achieve sub-cubic time complexity in length and linear time depth, at the cost of some loss of quality. The idea is based on two well-known methods: Gibbs sampling and Rao-Blackwellisation. We provide some simulation-based evaluation of the quality of the RGBS with respect to run time and sequence length.