With the growing popularity of the Internet as a media, new technologies for targeting advertisements in the digital domain, a discipline generally referred to as computational advertising, have opened up to new business models for publishers and advertisers to finance their services and sell their products. Online advertising entails using banner ads as a means to attract user attention towards a certain brand or product. The clicks, known as click-throughs, take a user to a website specified by the advertiser and generates revenue for the page displaying the banner, which we call the publisher. In real-time bidding (RTB) banner ads are determined and placed in real-time based on an auction initiated by the publisher between all potential advertisers, asking them to place a bid of what they are willing to pay for the current impression (displaying the ad), given information about the page, the user engaging the page, a description of the banner format and placement on the page. The advertiser with the highest bid wins the auction and their banner is displayed to the user. RTB thus requires advertisers, or more commonly, the demand side platforms (DSPs) acting on behalf of the advertisers, to be able to estimate the potential value of an impression, given the available information. A key measure for evaluating the potential values of impressions is the click-through rate (CTR), calculated as the ratio of the number of clicks over the total number of impressions in a specific context. What we are investigating in the present work, is a model for predicting CTRs, even in the face of contexts without any 2 previous clicks and/or very few impressions available, such that the empirical CTR can be unknown or very poorly estimated.

We discuss two views on extending existing methods for complex network modeling which we dub the communities first and the networks first view, respectively. Inspired by the networks first view that we attribute to White, Boorman, and Breiger (1976)[1], we formulate the multiple-networks stochastic blockmodel (MNSBM), which seeks to separate the observed network into subnetworks of different types and where the problem of inferring structure in each subnetwork becomes easier. We show how this model is specified in a generative Bayesian framework where parameters can be inferred efficiently using Gibbs sampling. The result is an effective multiple-membership model without the drawbacks of introducing complex definitions of "groups" and how they interact. We demonstrate results on the recovery of planted structure in synthetic networks and show very encouraging results on link prediction performances using multiple-networks models on a number of real-world network data sets.

When solving data analysis problems it is important to integrate prior knowledge and/or structural invariances. This paper contributes by a novel framework for incorporating algebraic invariance structure into kernels. In particular, we show that algebraic properties such as sign symmetries in data, phase independence, scaling etc. can be included easily by essentially performing the kernel trick twice. We demonstrate the usefulness of our theory in simulations on selected applications such as sign-invariant spectral clustering and underdetermined ICA.

Rodent hippocampal population codes represent important spatial information about the environment during navigation. Several computational methods have been developed to uncover the neural representation of spatial topology embedded in rodent hippocampal ensemble spike activity. Here we extend our previous work and propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to infer rat hippocampal population codes during spatial navigation. To tackle the model selection problem, we leverage a nonparametric Bayesian model. Specifically, to analyze rat hippocampal ensemble spiking activity, we apply a hierarchical Dirichlet process-hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) using two Bayesian inference methods, one based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the other based on variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian approaches on recordings from a freely-behaving rat navigating in an open field environment. We find that MCMC-based inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) hyperparameter sampling is flexible and efficient, and outperforms VB and MCMC approaches with hyperparameters set by empirical Bayes.

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model is a computational approach commonly used for modeling the complex relationships between input and output parameters. Prediction of the flow rate of a river is a requisite for any successful water resource management and river basin planning. In the current survey, the effectiveness of an Artificial Neural Network was examined to predict the Colorado River discharge. In this modeling process, an ANN model was used to relate the discharge of the Colorado River to such parameters as the amount of precipitation, ambient temperature and snowpack level at a specific time of the year. The model was able to precisely study the impact of climatic parameters on the flow rate of the Colorado River. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Discharge, Colorado River, River basin planning 1. Introduction The volumetric flow rate of a river, also called its discharge, at a particular point, is the volume of water passing through the cross section of the river at that point in a unit of time. As aforementioned, forecasting the flow rate of a river could be very useful in water resources management. Any seasonal river basin planning for designation of water between different consumers can not succeed without knowing/predicting the amount of water (i.e.

The problem of finding the missing values of a matrix given a few of its entries, called matrix completion, has gathered a lot of attention in the recent years. Although the problem under the standard low rank assumption is NP-hard, Cand\`es and Recht showed that it can be exactly relaxed if the number of observed entries is sufficiently large. In this work, we introduce a novel matrix completion model that makes use of proximity information about rows and columns by assuming they form communities. This assumption makes sense in several real-world problems like in recommender systems, where there are communities of people sharing preferences, while products form clusters that receive similar ratings. Our main goal is thus to find a low-rank solution that is structured by the proximities of rows and columns encoded by graphs. We borrow ideas from manifold learning to constrain our solution to be smooth on these graphs, in order to implicitly force row and column proximities. Our matrix recovery model is formulated as a convex non-smooth optimization problem, for which a well-posed iterative scheme is provided. We study and evaluate the proposed matrix completion on synthetic and real data, showing that the proposed structured low-rank recovery model outperforms the standard matrix completion model in many situations.

Contrary to standard statistical models, unnormalised statistical models only specify the likelihood function up to a constant. While such models are natural and popular, the lack of normalisation makes inference much more difficult. Here we show that inferring the parameters of a unnormalised model on a space $\Omega$ can be mapped onto an equivalent problem of estimating the intensity of a Poisson point process on $\Omega$. The unnormalised statistical model now specifies an intensity function that does not need to be normalised. Effectively, the normalisation constant may now be inferred as just another parameter, at no loss of information. The result can be extended to cover non-IID models, which includes for example unnormalised models for sequences of graphs (dynamical graphs), or for sequences of binary vectors. As a consequence, we prove that unnormalised parameteric inference in non-IID models can be turned into a semi-parametric estimation problem. Moreover, we show that the noise-contrastive divergence of Gutmann & Hyv\"arinen (2012) can be understood as an approximation of the Poisson transform, and extended to non-IID settings. We use our results to fit spatial Markov chain models of eye movements, where the Poisson transform allows us to turn a highly non-standard model into vanilla semi-parametric logistic regression.

In this paper, we propose an efficient semidefinite programming (SDP) approach to worst-case linear discriminant analysis (WLDA). Compared with the traditional LDA, WLDA considers the dimensionality reduction problem from the worst-case viewpoint, which is in general more robust for classification. However, the original problem of WLDA is non-convex and difficult to optimize. In this paper, we reformulate the optimization problem of WLDA into a sequence of semidefinite feasibility problems. To efficiently solve the semidefinite feasibility problems, we design a new scalable optimization method with quasi-Newton methods and eigen-decomposition being the core components. The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than standard interior-point based SDP solvers. Experiments on a variety of classification problems demonstrate that our approach achieves better performance than standard LDA. Our method is also much faster and more scalable than standard interior-point SDP solvers based WLDA. The computational complexity for an SDP with $m$ constraints and matrices of size $d$ by $d$ is roughly reduced from $\mathcal{O}(m^3+md^3+m^2d^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(d^3)$ ($m>d$ in our case).

We show two novel concentration inequalities for suprema of empirical processes when sampling without replacement, which both take the variance of the functions into account. While these inequalities may potentially have broad applications in learning theory in general, we exemplify their significance by studying the transductive setting of learning theory. For which we provide the first excess risk bounds based on the localized complexity of the hypothesis class, which can yield fast rates of convergence also in the transductive learning setting. We give a preliminary analysis of the localized complexities for the prominent case of kernel classes.

The Global Vectors for word representation (GloVe), introduced by Jeffrey Pennington et al. is reported to be an efficient and effective method for learning vector representations of words. State-of-the-art performance is also provided by skip-gram with negative-sampling (SGNS) implemented in the word2vec tool. In this note, we explain the similarities between the training objectives of the two models, and show that the objective of SGNS is similar to the objective of a specialized form of GloVe, though their cost functions are defined differently.