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Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline policy learning has received growing attention in causal inference. The primary objective is to learn a policy (individualized treatment rule) as a mapping from covariates to treatment that maximizes the empirical welfare defined as the mean of scalar-valued potential outcomes. In this paper, we study offline policy learning with distribution-valued outcomes, where each potential outcome is a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$ and the reward is defined through a utility functional applied to the Wasserstein barycenter of induced outcome distributions. We establish statistical guarantees for the policy learning framework based on both Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and Doubly Robust (DR) estimators. By handling the challenging uniform deviation over the product of the combinatorial policy class and the infinite-dimensional quantile domain, we prove that the finite-sample regret has leading dependence $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\mathrm{N\text{-}dim}(ฮ )/N})$. In the one-dimensional Wasserstein setting and under the stated regularity conditions, the leading regret rate is still governed by the policy-class complexity. Moreover, we provide a minimax lower bound establishing the sharpness of the leading dependence on $N$ and $\mathrm{N\text{-}dim}(ฮ )$.


FOSC-X: An Extended Framework for Optimal Local Cuts and Non-Horizontal Cluster Selection from Clustering Hierarchies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Extracting a flat clustering solution from a hierarchy is a common task in practical cluster analysis and can be formulated as an optimisation problem. Existing approaches focus on finding a single optimal solution. We introduce FOSC-X, a framework for extracting the top-M globally optimal flat clusterings from local, non-horizontal cuts of a hierarchical cluster tree, while optionally enforcing constraints on the number of clusters. This enables automatic identification of multiple high-quality alternative clusterings that capture different aspects of the hierarchical structure. Without constraints, the top-M problem can be solved in polynomial time using dynamic programming, exploiting the property that locally optimal partial candidates within subtrees can be combined to form globally optimal solutions while automatically determining the number of clusters. However, this can lead to solutions with numbers of clusters that are ultimately undesirable -- e.g., too large to be meaningful or practically analysed within a particular application domain. Imposing cluster-count constraints breaks the optimality property underlying the unconstrained dynamic programming approach, since locally optimal partial candidates may no longer combine into feasible globally optimal solutions. FOSC-X addresses this challenge through a dynamic programming strategy that maintains compact sets of feasible candidates using lower and upper feasibility bounds while pruning infeasible or dominated combinations. The resulting method guarantees optimal rankings of the top-M solutions with linear-time complexity in the number of cluster nodes and dataset size, both with and without cluster-count constraints. Experiments show that FOSC-X efficiently reveals alternative clustering structures overlooked by single-solution extraction methods.


Quantifying and Auditing LLM Evaluation via Positive--Unlabeled Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges for scalable evaluation, yet such LLM--as--a--Judge systems exhibit systematic biases that are decoupled from semantic quality, most notably verbosity bias. Meanwhile, human supervision is costly and typically selective, yielding reliable positive judgments but leaving most outputs unlabelled and potentially mixed in quality. We formulate LLM evaluation under selective human supervision as a positive--unlabelled learning problem and propose a geometric auditing framework based on Partial Optimal Transport. By aligning a small set of human--verified positives with a reliable subset of unlabelled outputs in a fixed embedding space, our method identifies human--consistent preferences and corrects biased judges without retraining. Experiments demonstrate improved alignment with human preferences, increased robustness to presentation biases, and interpretable confidence estimates, offering a scalable and statistically grounded alternative to existing LLM--as--a--judge pipelines.


Compute Efficiency and Serial Runtime Tradeoffs for Stochastic Momentum Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stochastic momentum methods such as heavy ball (HB), Nesterov momentum, and variants of Accelerated SGD (ASGD) [Kidambi et al., 2018] are widely used in modern training, but their stochastic benefits depend on two distinct quantities: serial runtime, the number of iterations needed to reach a target accuracy, and compute efficiency (CE), the inverse total gradient-query or FLOP cost. Larger batches reduce serial runtime without hurting CE only when the contraction gap grows linearly with batch size. We study stochastic HB and ASGD for consistent linear regression with Gaussian covariates and prove finite-dimensional, discrete-time lower bounds on their batch-size tradeoffs. Our first result shows that HB does not improve the CE frontier over SGD for arbitrary spectra; rather, it preserves SGD-level CE over a larger batch-size window, allowing larger batches to reduce serial runtime until HB reaches its deterministic accelerated scale. This window can be a factor $\sqrtฮบ$ larger than the SGD critical batch size. For ASGD, the picture is more spectrum-dependent: for rapidly decaying power-law spectra, ASGD improves small-batch CE over HB/SGD, but as batch size grows it trades this CE advantage for improved serial runtime. Synthetic linear-regression experiments verify these qualitative regimes, including near-overlap of ASGD and HB for slowly decaying spectra and the predicted CE--serial tradeoff for rapidly decaying spectra.


Knockoffs-based False Discovery Rate Control and Simplification for Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The deep neural network is a widely used framework in machine learning that has been widely applied in various fields. However, deep neural networks often involve a large number of parameters and inputs, many of which may be irrelevant to the goal or true output. These parameters and input variables not only increase computational complexity, but also contribute to additional computational cost. One solution to this problem is knockoff methods, which have proven successful in controlling false discovery rates in high-dimensional regression. Building on the knockoff methods and using the regularised neural network, this paper proposes three variable screening methods under the condition of controlling false discovery rates: one layer filter, multiple layers filter, and variable weight aggregation filter. In comparison with existing algorithms, we find that our algorithms show satisfactory performance.


INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori. We introduce Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS (INDEQS), a graph-based NCDE forecasting method that incorporates prior knowledge of a directed graph at distinct architectural positions. INDEQS separates inner mixing of hidden states across graph nodes from outer mixing between vector field and control, and offers both a lightweight graph-constrained variant and a more expressive variant, learning additional graph connections from data via adaptive graph convolutions. To systematically study when graph informedness is beneficial in forecasting, we devise a continuous advection simulation on directed graphs, yielding synthetic spatio-temporal datasets with known ground-truth flow structure. We then evaluate INDEQS on two real-world tasks: river discharge forecasting on a hydrological network and traffic flow prediction on PeMS08. Across these synthetic and real-world benchmarks, outer informedness consistently improves mean absolute error over an uninformed NCDE with comparable parameter count, particularly on larger graphs, while inner informedness offers a more parameter-efficient alternative when strict adherence to a known adjacency is desired. A comparison of discrete convolutional and continuous-time decoders further shows that continuous decoders yield better accuracy and greater temporal flexibility on real-world tasks. An implementation of INDEQS and the advection simulation is available at https://github.com/Mitchi1/indeqs.


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Neural Information Processing Systems

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Far from the Shallow: Brain-Predictive Reasoning Embedding through Residual Disentanglement

Neural Information Processing Systems

Understanding how the human brain progresses from processing simple linguistic inputs to performing high-level reasoning is a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. While modern large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to model neural responses to language, their internal representations are highly "entangled," mixing information about lexicon, syntax, meaning, and reasoning. This entanglement biases conventional brain encoding analyses toward linguistically shallow features (e.g., lexicon and syntax), making it difficult to isolate the neural substrates of cognitively deeper processes. Here, we introduce a residual disentanglement method that computationally isolates these components. By first probing an LM to identify feature-specific layers, our method iteratively regresses out lower-level representations to produce four nearly orthogonal embeddings for lexicon, syntax, meaning, and, critically, reasoning. We used these disentangled embeddings to model intracranial (ECoG) brain recordings from neurosurgical patients listening to natural speech. We show that: 1) This isolated reasoning embedding exhibits unique predictive power, accounting for variance in neural activity not explained by other linguistic features and even extending to the recruitment of visual regions beyond classical language areas.


TREND: Unsupervised 3DRepresentation Learning via Temporal Forecasting for LiDARPerception

Neural Information Processing Systems

Labeling LiDAR point clouds is notoriously time-and-energy-consuming, which spurs recent unsupervised 3D representation learning methods to alleviate the labeling burden in LiDAR perception via pretrained weights. Existing work focus on either masked auto encoding or contrastive learning on LiDAR point clouds, which neglects the temporal LiDAR sequence that naturally accounts for object motion (and their semantics). Instead, we propose TREND, short for Temporal REndering with Neural fielD, to learn 3D representation via forecasting the future observation in an unsupervised manner. TREND integrates forecasting for 3D pretraining through a Recurrent Embedding scheme to generate 3D embeddings across time and a Temporal LiDARNeural Field specifically designed for LiDAR modality to represent the 3D scene, with which we compute the loss using differentiable rendering. We evaluate TREND on 3D object detection and LiDAR semantic segmentation tasks on popular datasets, including Once, Waymo, NuScenes, and SemanticKITTI. TREND generally improves from-scratch models across datasets and tasks and brings gains of 1.77% mAP on Once and 2.11% mAP on NuScenes, which are up to 400%more improvement compared to previous SOTA unsupervised 3D pre-training methods. Codes and models will be available here.


CoC-VLA: Delving into Adversarial Domain Transfer for Explainable Autonomous Driving via Chain-of-Causality Visual-Language-Action Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

Autonomous driving represents a prominent application of artificial intelligence. Recent approaches have shifted from focusing solely on common scenarios to addressing complex, long-tail situations such as subtle human behaviors, traffic accidents, and non-compliant driving patterns. Given the demonstrated capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in understanding visual and natural language inputs and following instructions, recent methods have integrated LLMs into autonomous driving systems to enhance reasoning, interpretability, and performance across diverse scenarios. However, existing methods typically rely either on realworld data, which is suitable for industrial deployment, or on simulation data tailored to rare or hard case scenarios. Few approaches effectively integrate the complementary advantages of both data sources.