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Empirically Estimable Classification Bounds Based on a New Divergence Measure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Information divergence functions play a critical role in statistics and information theory. In this paper we show that a non-parametric f-divergence measure can be used to provide improved bounds on the minimum binary classification probability of error for the case when the training and test data are drawn from the same distribution and for the case where there exists some mismatch between training and test distributions. We confirm the theoretical results by designing feature selection algorithms using the criteria from these bounds and by evaluating the algorithms on a series of pathological speech classification tasks.


Global Convergence of Stochastic Gradient Descent for Some Non-convex Matrix Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on a low-rank factorization is commonly employed to speed up matrix problems including matrix completion, subspace tracking, and SDP relaxation. In this paper, we exhibit a step size scheme for SGD on a low-rank least-squares problem, and we prove that, under broad sampling conditions, our method converges globally from a random starting point within $O(\epsilon^{-1} n \log n)$ steps with constant probability for constant-rank problems. Our modification of SGD relates it to stochastic power iteration. We also show experiments to illustrate the runtime and convergence of the algorithm.


An Aggregation Method for Sparse Logistic Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

$L_1$ regularized logistic regression has now become a workhorse of data mining and bioinformatics: it is widely used for many classification problems, particularly ones with many features. However, $L_1$ regularization typically selects too many features and that so-called false positives are unavoidable. In this paper, we demonstrate and analyze an aggregation method for sparse logistic regression in high dimensions. This approach linearly combines the estimators from a suitable set of logistic models with different underlying sparsity patterns and can balance the predictive ability and model interpretability. Numerical performance of our proposed aggregation method is then investigated using simulation studies. We also analyze a published genome-wide case-control dataset to further evaluate the usefulness of the aggregation method in multilocus association mapping.


Evaluation of modelling approaches for predicting the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stocks at the national scale

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a major role in the global carbon budget. It can act as a source or a sink of atmospheric carbon, thereby possibly influencing the course of climate change. Improving the tools that model the spatial distributions of SOC stocks at national scales is a priority, both for monitoring changes in SOC and as an input for global carbon cycles studies. In this paper, we compare and evaluate two recent and promising modelling approaches. First, we considered several increasingly complex boosted regression trees (BRT), a convenient and efficient multiple regression model from the statistical learning field. Further, we considered a robust geostatistical approach coupled to the BRT models. Testing the different approaches was performed on the dataset from the French Soil Monitoring Network, with a consistent cross-validation procedure. We showed that when a limited number of predictors were included in the BRT model, the standalone BRT predictions were significantly improved by robust geostatistical modelling of the residuals. However, when data for several SOC drivers were included, the standalone BRT model predictions were not significantly improved by geostatistical modelling. Therefore, in this latter situation, the BRT predictions might be considered adequate without the need for geostatistical modelling, provided that i) care is exercised in model fitting and validating, and ii) the dataset does not allow for modelling of local spatial autocorrelations, as is the case for many national systematic sampling schemes.


Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new representation learning algorithm suited to the context of domain adaptation, in which data at training and test time come from similar but different distributions. Our algorithm is directly inspired by theory on domain adaptation suggesting that, for effective domain transfer to be achieved, predictions must be made based on a data representation that cannot discriminate between the training (source) and test (target) domains. We propose a training objective that implements this idea in the context of a neural network, whose hidden layer is trained to be predictive of the classification task, but uninformative as to the domain of the input. Our experiments on a sentiment analysis classification benchmark, where the target domain data available at training time is unlabeled, show that our neural network for domain adaption algorithm has better performance than either a standard neural network or an SVM, even if trained on input features extracted with the state-of-the-art marginalized stacked denoising autoencoders of Chen et al. (2012).


Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Paths of Partial Posteriors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn from an approximate posterior. However, its feasibility is being challenged in the era of so called Big Data as all data needs to be processed in every iteration. Realising that such simulation is an unnecessarily hard problem if the goal is estimation, we construct a computationally scalable methodology that allows unbiased estimation of the required expectations -- without explicit simulation from the full posterior. The scheme's variance is finite by construction and straightforward to control, leading to algorithms that are provably unbiased and naturally arrive at a desired error tolerance. This is achieved at an average computational complexity that is sub-linear in the size of the dataset and its free parameters are easy to tune. We demonstrate the utility and generality of the methodology on a range of common statistical models applied to large-scale benchmark and real-world datasets.


Predicting Alzheimer's disease: a neuroimaging study with 3D convolutional neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. Dementia refers to diseases that are characterized by a loss of memory or other cognitive impairments, and is caused by damage to nerve cells in the brain. In the United States, an estimated 5.2 million people of all ages have AD in 2014. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a condition in which an individual has mild but noticeable changes in thinking abilities. Individuals with MCI are more likely to develop AD than inviduals without [1]. Early detection of the disease can be achieved by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), a technique that uses a magnetic field and radio waves to create a detailed 3D image of the brain.


From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR/MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe decisions in OR/MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR/MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs/revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main problem of interest is a conditional stochastic optimization problem, given imperfect observations, where the joint probability distributions that specify the problem are unknown. We demonstrate that our proposed solution methods are generally applicable to a wide range of decision problems. We prove that they are computationally tractable and asymptotically optimal under mild conditions even when data is not independent and identically distributed (iid) and even for censored observations. As an analogue to the coefficient of determination $R^2$, we develop a metric $P$ termed the coefficient of prescriptiveness to measure the prescriptive content of data and the efficacy of a policy from an operations perspective. To demonstrate the power of our approach in a real-world setting we study an inventory management problem faced by the distribution arm of an international media conglomerate, which ships an average of 1 billion units per year. We leverage both internal data and public online data harvested from IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Google to prescribe operational decisions that outperform baseline measures. Specifically, the data we collect, leveraged by our methods, accounts for an 88% improvement as measured by our coefficient of prescriptiveness.


Generative Moment Matching Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of learning deep generative models from data. We formulate a method that generates an independent sample via a single feedforward pass through a multilayer perceptron, as in the recently proposed generative adversarial networks (Goodfellow et al., 2014). Training a generative adversarial network, however, requires careful optimization of a difficult minimax program. Instead, we utilize a technique from statistical hypothesis testing known as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which leads to a simple objective that can be interpreted as matching all orders of statistics between a dataset and samples from the model, and can be trained by backpropagation. We further boost the performance of this approach by combining our generative network with an auto-encoder network, using MMD to learn to generate codes that can then be decoded to produce samples. We show that the combination of these techniques yields excellent generative models compared to baseline approaches as measured on MNIST and the Toronto Face Database.


Deep Learning with Limited Numerical Precision

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Training of large-scale deep neural networks is often constrained by the available computational resources. We study the effect of limited precision data representation and computation on neural network training. Within the context of low-precision fixed-point computations, we observe the rounding scheme to play a crucial role in determining the network's behavior during training. Our results show that deep networks can be trained using only 16-bit wide fixed-point number representation when using stochastic rounding, and incur little to no degradation in the classification accuracy. We also demonstrate an energy-efficient hardware accelerator that implements low-precision fixed-point arithmetic with stochastic rounding.