Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are a widely popular class of regression models to forecast electricity demand, due to their high accuracy, flexibility and interpretability. However, the residuals of the fitted GAM are typically heteroscedastic and leptokurtic caused by the nature of energy data. In this paper we propose a novel approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance of the GAM residuals, which we call the GAM2 algorithm. It allows utility companies and network operators to assess the uncertainty of future electricity demand and incorporate it into their planning processes. The basic idea of our algorithm is to apply another GAM to the squared residuals to explain the dependence of uncertainty on exogenous variables. Empirical evidence shows that the residuals rescaled by the estimated conditional variance are approximately normal. We combine our modeling approach with online learning algorithms that adjust for dynamic changes in the distributions of demand. We illustrate our method by a case study on data from RTE, the operator of the French transmission grid.

Bike sharing systems consist of a fleet of bikes placed in a network of docking stations. These bikes can then be rented and returned to any of the docking stations after usage. Predicting unrealized bike demand at locations currently without bike stations is important for effectively designing and expanding bike sharing systems. We predict pairwise bike demand for New York City’s Citi Bike system. Since the system is driven by daily commuters we focus only on the morning rush hours between 7:00 AM to 11:00 AM during weekdays. We use taxi usage, weather and spatial variables as covariates to predict bike demand, and further analyze the influence of precipitation and day of week. We show that aggregating stations in neighborhoods can substantially improve predictions. The presented model can assist planners by predicting bike demand at a macroscopic level, between pairs of neighborhoods.

While human behavior models based on repeated Stackelberg games have been proposed for domains such as "wildlife crime" where there is repeated interaction between the defender and the adversary, there has been no empirical study with human subjects to show the effectiveness of such models. This paper presents an initial study based on extensive human subject experiments with participants on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Our findings include: (i) attackers may view the defender’s coverage probability in a non-linear fashion; specifically it follows an S-shaped curve, and (ii) there are significant losses in defender utility when strategies generated by existing models are deployed in repeated Stackelberg game settings against human subjects.

For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, a precise prediction method is required. In this work, we investigate the use of heterogeneous machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction. We first analyze homogeneous ensemble regressors that make use of a single base algorithm and compare decision trees to k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression. As next step, we construct heterogeneous ensembles that make use of multiple base algorithms and benefit from a gain of diversity of the weak predictors. In the experimental evaluation, we show that a combination of decision trees and support vector regression outperforms state-of-the-art predictors (improvements of up to 37% compared to support vector regression) as well as homogeneous ensembles while requiring a shorter runtime (speed-ups from 1.60x to 8.78x). The experiments are based on large wind time series data from simulations and real measurements.

Reducing an automobile's energy consumption will lower its dependency on fossil fuel and extend the travel range of electric vehicles. Automobile Climate Control Systems (CCS) are known to be heavy energy consumers. To help reduce CCS energy consumption, this paper presents an adaptive automated agent, MDP Agent for Climate control Systems -- MACS, which provides drivers advice as to how to set their CCS. First, we present a model which has 78% accuracy in predicting drivers' reactions to different advice in different situations. Using the prediction model, we designed a Markov Decision Process which solution provided the advising policy for MACS. Through empirical evaluation using an electric car, with 83 human subjects, we show that MACS successfully reduced the energy consumption of the subjects by 33% compared to subjects who were not equipped with MACS. MACS also outperformed the state-of-the-art Social agent for Advice Provision (SAP).

Assuming computational technologies as a dominant factor in forming new scientific methods during the last century, we review the field of computational urban modeling based on the ways different approaches deal with evolving computational and informational capacities. We claim that during the last few years, due to advancements in ubiquitous computing the flow of unstructured data streams have changed the landscape of empirical modeling and simulation. However, there is a conceptual mismatch between the state of the art in urban modeling paradigms and the capacities offered by these urban data streams. We discuss some alternative mathematical methodologies that introduce an abstraction from the traditional urban modeling methodologies.

Energy consumption in commercial and educational buildings is impacted by group activities such as meetings, workshops, classes and exams, and can be reduced by scheduling these activities to take place at times and locations that are favorable from an energy standpoint. This paper improves on the effectiveness of energy-aware room-booking and occupancy scheduling approaches, by allowing the scheduling decisions to rely on an explicit model of the building's occupancy-based HVAC control. The core component of our approach is a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model which optimally solves the joint occupancy scheduling and occupancy-based HVAC control problem. To scale up to realistic problem sizes, we embed this MILP model into a large neighbourhood search (LNS). We obtain substantial energy reduction in comparison with occupancy-based HVAC control using arbitrary schedules or using schedules obtained by existing heuristic energy-aware scheduling approaches.

This paper presents an exploratory study conducted to understand how audio-visual prompts are understood by people on an emotional level as a first step towards the more challenging task of designing emotionally aligned prompts for persons with cognitive disabilities such as Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD). Persons with ADRD often need assistance from a caregiver to complete daily living activities such as washing hands, making food, or getting dressed. Artificially intelligent systems have been developed that can assist in such situations. This paper presents a set of prompt videos of a virtual human ‘Rachel’, wherein she expressively communicates prompts at each step of a simple hand washing task, with various human-like emotions and behaviors. A user study was conducted for 30 such videos with respect to three basic and important dimensions of emotional experience: evaluation, potency, and activity. The results show that, while people generally agree on the evaluation (valence: good/bad) of a prompt, consensus about power and activity is not as socially homogeneous. Our long term aim is to enhance such systems by delivering automated prompts that are emotionally aligned with individuals in order to help with prompt adherence and with long-term adoption.

In (Bouchard, Bouchard, and Bouzouane 2012), guidelines While the design of smart environments dedicated to people to build the software architecture of a smart home system with disabilities involves many challenges, like blending are presented. Such a software follows a loop-based execution, unobtrusively into the home environment (Novak, Binas, depicting the same execution principle, allowing the and Jakab 2012), recognizing the ongoing inhabitant activity use of a Reconfiguration controller task.

Given the fast rise of increasingly autonomous artificial agents and robots, a key acceptability criterion will be the possible moral implications of their actions. In particular, intelligent persuasive systems (systems designed to influence humans via communication) constitute a highly sensitive topic because of their intrinsically social nature. Still, ethical studies in this area are rare and tend to focus on the output of the required action. Instead, this work focuses on the persuasive acts themselves (e.g. “is it morally acceptable that a machine lies or appeals to the emotions of a person to persuade her, even if for a good end?”). Exploiting a behavioral approach, based on human assessment of moral dilemmas – i.e. without any prior assumption of underlying ethical theories – this paper reports on a set of experiments. These experiments address the type of persuader (human or machine), the strategies adopted (purely argumentative, appeal to positive emotions, appeal to negative emotions, lie) and the circumstances. Findings display no differences due to the agent, mild acceptability for persuasion and reveal that truth-conditional reasoning (i.e. argument validity) is a significant dimension affecting subjects’ judgment. Some implications for the design of intelligent persuasive systems are discussed.