The preferred treatment for kidney failure is a transplant; however, demand for donor kidneys far outstrips supply. Kidney exchange, an innovation where willing but incompatible patient-donor pairs can exchange organs- — via barter cycles and altruist-initiated chains —provides a life-saving alternative.Typically, fielded exchanges act myopically, considering only the current pool of pairs when planning the cycles and chains. Yet kidney exchange is inherently dynamic, with participants arriving and departing. Also, many planned exchange transplants do not go to surgery due to various failures. So, it is important to consider the future when matching. Motivated by our experience running the computational side of a large nationwide kidney exchange, we present FutureMatch, a framework for learning to match in a general dynamic model. FutureMatch takes as input a high-level objective (e.g., "maximize graft survival of transplants over time'') decided on by experts, then automatically (i) learns based on data how to make this objective concrete and (ii) learns the ``means'' to accomplish this goal — a task, in our experience, that humans handle poorly. It uses data from all live kidney transplants in the US since 1987 to learn the quality of each possible match; it then learns the potentials of elements of the current input graph offline (e.g., potentials of pairs based on features such as donor and patient blood types), translates these to weights, and performs a computationally feasible batch matching that incorporates dynamic, failure-aware considerations through the weights. We validate FutureMatch on real fielded exchange data. It results in higher values of the objective. Furthermore, even under economically inefficient objectives that enforce equity, it yields better solutions for the efficient objective (which does not incorporate equity) than traditional myopic matching that uses the efficiency objective.

Ellipsis is a linguistic process that makes certain aspects of text meaning not directly traceable to surface text elements and, therefore, inaccessible to most language processing technologies. However, detecting and resolving ellipsis is an indispensable capability for language-enabled intelligent agents. The key insight of the work presented here is that not all cases of ellipsis are equally difficult: some can be detected and resolved with high confidence even before we are able to build agents with full human-level semantic and pragmatic understanding of text. This paper describes a fully automatic, implemented and evaluated method of treating one class of ellipsis: elided scopes of modality. Our cognitively-inspired approach, which centrally leverages linguistic principles, has also been applied to overt referring expressions with equally promising results.

Concept learning is a central problem for cognitive systems. Generalization techniques can help organize examples by their commonalities, but comparisons with non-examples, near-misses, can provide discrimination. Early work on near-misses required hand-selected examples by a teacher who understood the learner’s internal representations. This paper introduces Analogical Learning by Integrating Generalization and Near-misses (ALIGN) and describes three key advances. First, domain-general cognitive models of analogical processes are used to handle a wider range of examples. Second, ALIGN’s analogical generalization process constructs multiple probabilistic representations per concept via clustering, and hence can learn disjunctive concepts. Finally, ALIGN uses unsupervised analogical retrieval to find its own near-miss examples. We show that ALIGN out-performs analogical generalization on two perceptual data sets: (1) hand-drawn sketches; and (2) geospatial concepts from strategy-game maps.

Fast and efficient learning over large bodies of commonsense knowledge is a key requirement for cognitive systems. Semantic web knowledge bases provide an important new resource of ground facts from which plausible inferences can be learned. This paper applies structured logistic regression with analogical generalization (SLogAn) to make use of structural as well as statistical information to achieve rapid and robust learning. SLogAn achieves state-of-the-art performance in a standard triplet classification task on two data sets and, in addition, can provide understandable explanations for its answers.

This paper presents the first functional evaluation of spontaneous, uncued retrieval from long-term memory in a cognitive architecture. The key insight is that current deliberate cued retrieval mechanisms require the agent to have knowledge of when and what to retrieve --- knowledge that may be missing or incorrect. Spontaneous uncued retrieval eliminates these requirements through automatic retrievals that use the agent's problem solving context as a heuristic for relevance, thus supplementing deliberate cued retrieval. Using constraints derived from this insight, we sketch the space of spontaneous retrieval mechanisms and describe an implementation of spontaneous retrieval in Soar together with an agent that takes advantage of that mechanism. Empirical evidence is provided in the Missing Link word-puzzle domain, where agents using spontaneous retrieval out-perform agents without that capability, leading us to conclude that spontaneous retrieval can be a useful mechanism and is worth further exploration.

This paper presents a novel approach to inductive process modeling, the task of constructing a quantitative account of dynamical behavior from time-series data and background knowledge. We review earlier work on this topic, noting its reliance on methods that evaluate entire model structures and use repeated simulation to estimate parameters, which together make severe computational demands. In response, we present an alternative method for process model induction that assumes each process has a rate, that this rate is determined by an algebraic expression, and that changes due to a process are directly proportionalto its rate. We describe RPM, an implemented system that incorporates these ideas, and we report analyses and experiments that suggest it scales well to complex domains and data sets. In closing, we discuss related research and outline ways to extend the framework.

Moral reasoning is important to accurately model as AI systems become ever more integrated into our lives. Moral reasoning is rapid and unconscious; analogical reasoning, which can be unconscious, is a promising approach to model moral reasoning. This paper explores the use of analogical generalizations to improve moral reasoning. Analogical reasoning has already been used to successfully model moral reasoning in the MoralDM model, but it exhaustively matches across all known cases, which is computationally intractable and cognitively implausible for human-scale knowledge bases. We investigate the performance of an extension of MoralDM to use the MAC/FAC model of analogical retrieval over three conditions, across a set of highly confusable moral scenarios.

This paper presents an agent-based model of the emergence and transmission of a language system for the expression of logical combinations of propositions. The model assumes the agents have some cognitive capacities for invention, adoption, repair, induction and adaptation, a common vocabulary for basic categories, and the ability to construct complex concepts using recursive combinations of basic categories with logical categories. It also supposes the agents initially do not have a vocabulary for logical categories (i.e. logical connectives), nor grammatical constructions for expressing logical combinations of basic categories through language. The results of the experiments we have performed show that a language system for the expression of logical combinations emerges as a result of a process of self-organisation of the agents' linguistic interactions. Such a language system is concise, because it only uses words and grammatical constructions for three logical categories (i.e. and, or, not). It is also expressive, since it allows the communication of logical combinations of categories of the same complexity as propositional logic formulas, using linguistic devices such as syntactic categories, word order and auxiliary words. Furthermore, it is easy to learn and reliably transmitted across generations, according to the results of our experiments.

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).

Personalized tag recommendation systems recommend a list of tags to a user when he is about to annotate an item. It exploits the individual preference and the characteristic of the items. Tensor factorization tech- niques have been applied to many applications, such as tag recommendation. Models based on Tucker Decomposition can achieve good performance but require a lot of computation power. On the other hand, mod- els based on Canonical Decomposition can run in linear time and are more feasible for online recommendation. In this paper, we propose a novel method for personalized tag recommendation, which can be considered as a nonlinear extension of Canonical Decomposition. Different from linear tensor factorization, we exploit Gaussian radial basis function to increase the model’s capacity. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for tag recommendation on real datasets and perform well even with a small number of features, which verifies that our models can make better use of features.