We establish PAC learnability of influence functions for three common influence models, namely, the Linear Threshold (LT), Independent Cascade (IC) and Voter models, and present concrete sample complexity results in each case. Our results for the LT model are based on interesting connections with neural networks; those for the IC model are based an interpretation of the influence function as an expectation over random draw of a subgraph and use covering number arguments; and those for the Voter model are based on a reduction to linear regression. We show these results for the case in which the cascades are only partially observed and we do not see the time steps in which a node has been influenced. We also provide efficient polynomial time learning algorithms for a setting with full observation, i.e. where the cascades also contain the time steps in which nodes are influenced.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of constructing a near-optimal rank $k$ approximation of a matrix $M\in [0,1]^{m\times n}$ under the streaming data model where the columns of $M$ are revealed sequentially. We present SLA (Streaming Low-rank Approximation), an algorithm that is asymptotically accurate, when $k s_{k+1} (M) = o(\sqrt{mn})$ where $s_{k+1}(M)$ is the $(k+1)$-th largest singular value of $M$. This means that its average mean-square error converges to 0 as $m$ and $n$ grow large (i.e., $\|\hat{M}^{(k)}-M^{(k)} \|_F^2 = o(mn)$ with high probability, where $\hat{M}^{(k)}$ and $M^{(k)}$ denote the output of SLA and the optimal rank $k$ approximation of $M$, respectively). Our algorithm makes one pass on the data if the columns of $M$ are revealed in a random order, and two passes if the columns of $M$ arrive in an arbitrary order. To reduce its memory footprint and complexity, SLA uses random sparsification, and samples each entry of $M$ with a small probability $\delta$. In turn, SLA is memory optimal as its required memory space scales as $k(m+n)$, the dimension of its output. Furthermore, SLA is computationally efficient as it runs in $O(\delta kmn)$ time (a constant number of operations is made for each observed entry of $M$), which can be as small as $O(k\log(m)^4 n)$ for an appropriate choice of $\delta$ and if $n\ge m$.

This work addresses the problem of regret minimization in non-stochastic multi-armed bandit problems, focusing on performance guarantees that hold with high probability. Such results are rather scarce in the literature since proving them requires a large deal of technical effort and significant modifications to the standard, more intuitive algorithms that come only with guarantees that hold on expectation. One of these modifications is forcing the learner to sample arms from the uniform distribution at least $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ times over $T$ rounds, which can adversely affect performance if many of the arms are suboptimal. While it is widely conjectured that this property is essential for proving high-probability regret bounds, we show in this paper that it is possible to achieve such strong results without this undesirable exploration component. Our result relies on a simple and intuitive loss-estimation strategy called Implicit eXploration (IX) that allows a remarkably clean analysis. To demonstrate the flexibility of our technique, we derive several improved high-probability bounds for various extensions of the standard multi-armed bandit framework.Finally, we conduct a simple experiment that illustrates the robustness of our implicit exploration technique.

Simple decision heuristics are models of human and animal behavior that use few pieces of information--perhaps only a single piece of information--and integrate the pieces in simple ways, for example, by considering them sequentially, one at a time, or by giving them equal weight. We focus on three families of heuristics: single-cue decision making, lexicographic decision making, and tallying. It is unknown how quickly these heuristics can be learned from experience. We show, analytically and empirically, that substantial progress in learning can be made with just a few training samples. When training samples are very few, tallying performs substantially better than the alternative methods tested. Our empirical analysis is the most extensive to date, employing 63 natural data sets on diverse subjects.

Prediction markets are economic mechanisms for aggregating information about future events through sequential interactions with traders. The pricing mechanisms in these markets are known to be related to optimization algorithms in machine learning and through these connections we have some understanding of how equilibrium market prices relate to the beliefs of the traders in a market. However, little is known about rates and guarantees for the convergence of these sequential mechanisms, and two recent papers cite this as an important open question.In this paper we show how some previously studied prediction market trading models can be understood as a natural generalization of randomized coordinate descent which we call randomized subspace descent (RSD). We establish convergence rates for RSD and leverage them to prove rates for the two prediction market models above, answering the open questions. Our results extend beyond standard centralized markets to arbitrary trade networks.

Link prediction and clustering are key problems for network-structureddata. While spectral clustering has strong theoretical guaranteesunder the popular stochastic blockmodel formulation of networks, itcan be expensive for large graphs. On the other hand, the heuristic ofpredicting links to nodes that share the most common neighbors withthe query node is much fast, and works very well in practice. We showtheoretically that the common neighbors heuristic can extract clustersw.h.p. when the graph is dense enough, and can do so even in sparsergraphs with the addition of a ``cleaning'' step. Empirical results onsimulated and real-world data support our conclusions.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can be shifted across 2D images or 3D videos to segment them. They have a fixed input size and typically perceive only small local contexts of the pixels to be classified as foreground or background. In contrast, Multi-Dimensional Recurrent NNs (MD-RNNs) can perceive the entire spatiotemporal context of each pixel in a few sweeps through all pixels, especially when the RNN is a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Despite these theoretical advantages, however, unlike CNNs, previous MD-LSTM variants were hard to parallelise onGPUs. Here we rearrange the traditional cuboid order of computations in MD-LSTM in pyramidal fashion. The resulting PyraMiD-LSTM is easy to parallelise, especiallyfor 3D data such as stacks of brain slice images. PyraMiD-LSTM achieved best known pixel-wise brain image segmentation results on MRBrainS13 (and competitive results on EM-ISBI12).

We show that natural classes of regularized learning algorithms with a form of recency bias achieve faster convergence rates to approximate efficiency and to coarse correlated equilibria in multiplayer normal form games. When each player in a game uses an algorithm from our class, their individual regret decays at $O(T^{-3/4})$, while the sum of utilities converges to an approximate optimum at $O(T^{-1})$--an improvement upon the worst case $O(T^{-1/2})$ rates. We show a black-box reduction for any algorithm in the class to achieve $\tilde{O}(T^{-1/2})$ rates against an adversary, while maintaining the faster rates against algorithms in the class. Our results extend those of Rakhlin and Shridharan~\cite{Rakhlin2013} and Daskalakis et al.~\cite{Daskalakis2014}, who only analyzed two-player zero-sum games for specific algorithms.

In this paper, we explore the inclusion of latent random variables into the hidden state of a recurrent neural network (RNN) by combining the elements of the variational autoencoder. We argue that through the use of high-level latent random variables, the variational RNN (VRNN) can model the kind of variability observed in highly structured sequential data such as natural speech. We empirically evaluate the proposed model against other related sequential models on four speech datasets and one handwriting dataset. Our results show the important roles that latent random variables can play in the RNN dynamics.

Bandit convex optimization is one of the fundamental problems in the field of online learning. The best algorithm for the general bandit convex optimization problem guarantees a regret of $\widetilde{O}(T^{5/6})$, while the best known lower bound is $\Omega(T^{1/2})$. Many attemptshave been made to bridge the huge gap between these bounds. A particularly interesting special case of this problem assumes that the loss functions are smooth. In this case, the best known algorithm guarantees a regret of $\widetilde{O}(T^{2/3})$. We present an efficient algorithm for the banditsmooth convex optimization problem that guarantees a regret of $\widetilde{O}(T^{5/8})$. Our result rules out an $\Omega(T^{2/3})$ lower bound and takes a significant step towards the resolution of this open problem.