Despite decades of effort to combat spam, unwanted and even malicious emails, such as phish which aim to deceive recipients into disclosing sensitive information, still routinely find their way into one's mailbox.To be sure, email filters manage to stop a large fraction of spam emails from ever reaching users, but spammers and phishers have mastered the art of filter evasion, or manipulating the content of email messages to avoid being filtered.We present a unique behavioral experiment designed to study email filter evasion.Our experiment is framed in somewhat broader terms: given the widespread use of machine learning methods for distinguishing spam and non-spam, we investigate how human subjects manipulate a spam template to evade a classification-based filter.We find that adding a small amount of noise to a filter significantly reduces the ability of subjects to evade it, observing that noise does not merely have a short-term impact, but also degrades evasion performance in the longer term.Moreover, we find that greater coverage of an email template by the classifier (filter) features significantly increases the difficulty of evading it.This observation suggests that aggressive feature reduction — a common practice in applied machine learning — can actually facilitate evasion.In addition to the descriptive analysis of behavior, we develop a synthetic model of human evasion behavior which closely matches observed behavior and effectively replicates experimental findings in simulation.

This paper considers a mechanism design problem for locating two identical facilities on an interval, in which an agent can pretend to be multiple agents. A mechanism selects a pair of locations on the interval according to the declared single-peaked preferences of agents. An agent's utility is determined by the location of the better one (typically the closer to her ideal point). This model can represent various application domains. For example, assume a company is going to release two models of its product line and performs a questionnaire survey in an online forum to determine their detailed specs. Typically, a customer will buy only one model, but she can answer multiple times by logging onto the forum under several email accounts. We first characterize possible outcomes of mechanisms that satisfy false-name-proofness, as well as some mild conditions. By extending the result, we completely characterize the class of false-name-proof mechanisms when locating two facilities on a circle. We then clarify the approximation ratios of the false-name-proof mechanisms on a line metric for the social and maximum costs.

Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is a popular iterative algorithm for approximating Nash equilibria in imperfect-information multi-step two-player zero-sum games. We introduce the first general, principled method for warm starting CFR. Our approach requires only a strategy for each player, and accomplishes the warm start at the cost of a single traversal of the game tree. The method provably warm starts CFR to as many iterations as it would have taken to reach a strategy profile of the same quality as the input strategies, and does not alter the convergence bounds of the algorithms. Unlike prior approaches to warm starting, ours can be applied in all cases. Our method is agnostic to the origins of the input strategies. For example, they can be based on human domain knowledge, the observed strategy of a strong agent, the solution of a coarser abstraction, or the output of some algorithm that converges rapidly at first but slowly as it gets closer to an equilibrium. Experiments demonstrate that one can improve overall convergence in a game by first running CFR on a smaller, coarser abstraction of the game and then using the strategy in the abstract game to warm start CFR in the full game.

Researchers have long converged that the evolution of a Social Networking Service (SNS) platform is driven by the interplay between users' preferences (reflected in user-item consumption behavior) and the social network structure (reflected in user-user interaction behavior), with both kinds of users' behaviors change from time to time. However, traditional approaches either modeled these two kinds of behaviors in an isolated way or relied on a static assumption of a SNS. Thus, it is still unclear how do the roles of users' historical preferences and the dynamic social network structure affect the evolution of SNSs. Furthermore, can jointly modeling users' temporal behaviors in SNSs benefit both behavior prediction tasks?In this paper, we leverage the underlying social theories(i.e., social influence and the homophily effect) to investigate the interplay and evolution of SNSs. We propose a probabilistic approach to fuse these social theories for jointly modeling users' temporal behaviors in SNSs. Thus our proposed model has both the explanatory ability and predictive power. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Time information plays a crucial role on social media popularity. Existing research on popularity prediction, effective though, ignores temporal information which is highly related to user-item associations and thus often results in limited success. An essential way is to consider all these factors (user, item, and time), which capture the dynamic nature of photo popularity. In this paper, we present a novel approach to factorize the popularity into user-item context and time-sensitive context for exploring the mechanism of dynamic popularity. The user-item context provides a holistic view of popularity, while the time-sensitive context captures the temporal dynamics nature of popularity. Accordingly, we develop two kinds of time-sensitive features, including user activeness variability and photo prevalence variability. To predict photo popularity, we propose a novel framework named Multi-scale Temporal Decomposition (MTD), which decomposes the popularity matrix in latent spaces based on contextual associations. Specifically, the proposed MTD models time-sensitive context on different time scales, which is beneficial to automatically learn temporal patterns. Based on the experiments conducted on a real-world dataset with 1.29M photos from Flickr, our proposed MTD can achieve the prediction accuracy of 79.8% and outperform the best three state-of-the-art methods with a relative improvement of 9.6% on average.

The popularity of tagging systems provides a great opportunity to improve the performance of item recommendation. Although existing approaches use topic modeling to mine the semantic information of items by grouping the tags labelled for items, they overlook an important property that tags link users and items as a bridge. Thus these methods cannot deal with the data sparsity without commonly rated items (DS-WO-CRI) problem, limiting their recommendation performance. Towards solving this challenging problem, we propose a novel tag and rating based collaborative filtering (CF) model for item recommendation, which first uses topic modeling to mine the semantic information of tags for each user and for each item respectively, and then incorporates the semantic information into matrix factorization to factorize rating information and to capture the bridging feature of tags and ratings between users and items.As a result, our model captures the semantic correlation between users and items, and is able to greatly improve recommendation performance, especially in DS-WO-CRI situations.Experiments conducted on two popular real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed model significantly outperforms the conventional CF approach, the state-of-the-art social relation based CF approach, and the state-of-the-art topic modeling based CF approaches in terms of both precision and recall, and it is an effective approach to the DS-WO-CRI problem.

ICU mortality risk prediction may help clinicians take effective interventions to improve patient outcome. Existing machine learning approaches often face challenges in integrating a comprehensive panel of physiologic variables and presenting to clinicians interpretable models. We aim to improve both accuracy and interpretability of prediction models by introducing Subgraph Augmented Non-negative Matrix Factorization (SANMF) on ICU physiologic time series. SANMF converts time series into a graph representation and applies frequent subgraph mining to automatically extract temporal trends. We then apply non-negative matrix factorization to group trends in a way that approximates patient pathophysiologic states. Trend groups are then used as features in training a logistic regression model for mortality risk prediction, and are also ranked according to their contribution to mortality risk. We evaluated SANMF against four empirical models on the task of predicting mortality or survival 30 days after discharge from ICU using the observed physiologic measurements between 12 and 24 hours after admission. SANMF outperforms all comparison models, and in particular, demonstrates an improvement in AUC (0.848 vs. 0.827, p<0.002) compared to a state-of-the-art machine learning method that uses manual feature engineering. Feature analysis was performed to illuminate insights and benefits of subgraph groups in mortality risk prediction.

We present SVVAMP, a Python package dedicated to the study of voting systems with an emphasis on manipulation analysis.

The Temporal Network with Uncertainty (TNU) modeling framework is used to represent temporal knowledge in presence of qualitative temporal uncertainty. Dynamic Controllability (DC) is the problem of deciding the existence of a strategy for scheduling the controllable time points of the network observing past happenings only. In this paper, we address the DC problem for a very general class of TNU, namely Disjunctive Temporal Network with Uncertainty. We make the following contributions. First, we define strategies in the form of an executable language; second, we propose the first decision procedure to check whether a given strategy is a solution for the DC problem; third we present an efficient algorithm for strategy synthesis based on techniques derived from Timed Games and Satisfiability Modulo Theory. The experimental evaluation shows that the approach is superior to the state-of-the-art.

Zero-shot Recognition (ZSR) is to learn recognition models for novel classes without labeled data. It is a challenging task and has drawn considerable attention in recent years. The basic idea is to transfer knowledge from seen classes via the shared attributes. This paper focus on the transductive ZSR, i.e., we have unlabeled data for novel classes. Instead of learning models for seen and novel classes separately as in existing works, we put forward a novel joint learning approach which learns the shared model space (SMS) for models such that the knowledge can be effectively transferred between classes using the attributes. An effective algorithm is proposed for optimization. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three benchmark datasets for ZSR. The results demonstrates that the proposed SMS can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art related approaches which validates its efficacy for the ZSR task.