Owing to the remarkable photometric precision of space observatories like Kepler, stellar and planetary systems beyond our own are now being characterized en masse for the first time. These characterizations are pivotal for endeavors such as searching for Earth-like planets and solar twins, understanding the mechanisms that govern stellar evolution, and tracing the dynamics of our Galaxy. The volume of data that is becoming available, however, brings with it the need to process this information accurately and rapidly. While existing methods can constrain fundamental stellar parameters such as ages, masses, and radii from these observations, they require substantial computational efforts to do so. We develop a method based on machine learning for rapidly estimating fundamental parameters of main-sequence solar-like stars from classical and asteroseismic observations. We first demonstrate this method on a hare-and-hound exercise and then apply it to the Sun, 16 Cyg A & B, and 34 planet-hosting candidates that have been observed by the Kepler spacecraft. We find that our estimates and their associated uncertainties are comparable to the results of other methods, but with the additional benefit of being able to explore many more stellar parameters while using much less computation time. We furthermore use this method to present evidence for an empirical diffusion-mass relation. Our method is open source and freely available for the community to use. The source code for all analyses and for all figures appearing in this manuscript can be found electronically at https://github.com/earlbellinger/asteroseismology

We consider the problem of reinforcement learning over episodes of a finite-horizon deterministic system and as a solution propose optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), an algorithm designed to synthesize efficient exploration and value function generalization. We establish that when the true value function lies within a given hypothesis class, OCP selects optimal actions over all but at most K episodes, where K is the eluder dimension of the given hypothesis class. We establish further efficiency and asymptotic performance guarantees that apply even if the true value function does not lie in the given hypothesis class, for the special case where the hypothesis class is the span of pre-specified indicator functions over disjoint sets. We also discuss the computational complexity of OCP and present computational results involving two illustrative examples.

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric prior for time-varying networks. To each node of the network is associated a positive parameter, modeling the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to evolve over time, and are modeled via a dynamic point process model. The model is able to (a) capture smooth evolution of the interaction between nodes, allowing edges to appear/disappear over time (b) capture long term evolution of the sociabilities of the nodes (c) and yield sparse graphs, where the number of edges grows subquadratically with the number of nodes. The evolution of the sociabilities is described by a tractable time-varying gamma process. We provide some theoretical insights into the model and apply it to three real world datasets.

Ride sharing has important implications in terms of environmental, social and individual goals by reducing carbon footprints, fostering social interactions and economizing commuter costs. The ride sharing systems that are commonly available lack adaptive and scalable techniques that can simultaneously learn from the large scale data and predict in real-time dynamic fashion. In this paper, we study such a problem towards a smart city initiative, where a generic ride sharing system is conceived capable of making predictions about ride share opportunities based on the historically recorded data while satisfying real-time ride requests. Underpinning the system is an application of a powerful machine learning convex optimization framework called Network Lasso that uses the Alternate Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) optimization for learning and dynamic prediction. We propose an application of a robust and scalable unified optimization framework within the ride sharing case-study. The application of Network Lasso framework is capable of jointly optimizing and clustering different rides based on their spatial and model similarity. The prediction from the framework clusters new ride requests, making accurate price prediction based on the clusters, detecting hidden correlations in the data and allowing fast convergence due to the network topology. We provide an empirical evaluation of the application of ADMM network Lasso on real trip record and simulated data, proving their effectiveness since the mean squared error of the algorithm's prediction is minimized on the test rides.

Directed graphical models provide a useful framework for modeling causal or directional relationships for multivariate data. Prior work has largely focused on identifiability and search algorithms for directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models. In many applications, feedback naturally arises and directed graphical models that permit cycles occur. In this paper we address the issue of identifiability for general directed cyclic graphical (DCG) models satisfying the Markov assumption. In particular, in addition to the faithfulness assumption which has already been introduced for cyclic models, we introduce two new identifiability assumptions, one based on selecting the model with the fewest edges and the other based on selecting the DCG model that entails the maximum number of d-separation rules. We provide theoretical results comparing these assumptions which show that: (1) selecting models with the largest number of d-separation rules is strictly weaker than the faithfulness assumption; (2) unlike for DAG models, selecting models with the fewest edges does not necessarily result in a milder assumption than the faithfulness assumption. We also provide connections between our two new principles and minimality assumptions. We use our identifiability assumptions to develop search algorithms for small-scale DCG models. Our simulation study supports our theoretical results, showing that the algorithms based on our two new principles generally out-perform algorithms based on the faithfulness assumption in terms of selecting the true skeleton for DCG models.

Given a high-dimensional data set we often wish to find the strongest relationships within it. A common strategy is to evaluate a measure of dependence on every variable pair and retain the highest-scoring pairs for follow-up. This strategy works well if the statistic used is equitable [Reshef et al. 2015a], i.e., if, for some measure of noise, it assigns similar scores to equally noisy relationships regardless of relationship type (e.g., linear, exponential, periodic). In this paper, we introduce and characterize a population measure of dependence called MIC*. We show three ways that MIC* can be viewed: as the population value of MIC, a highly equitable statistic from [Reshef et al. 2011], as a canonical "smoothing" of mutual information, and as the supremum of an infinite sequence defined in terms of optimal one-dimensional partitions of the marginals of the joint distribution. Based on this theory, we introduce an efficient approach for computing MIC* from the density of a pair of random variables, and we define a new consistent estimator MICe for MIC* that is efficiently computable. In contrast, there is no known polynomial-time algorithm for computing the original equitable statistic MIC. We show through simulations that MICe has better bias-variance properties than MIC. We then introduce and prove the consistency of a second statistic, TICe, that is a trivial side-product of the computation of MICe and whose goal is powerful independence testing rather than equitability. We show in simulations that MICe and TICe have good equitability and power against independence respectively. The analyses here complement a more in-depth empirical evaluation of several leading measures of dependence [Reshef et al. 2015b] that shows state-of-the-art performance for MICe and TICe.

Alleged criminals might not be the only ones to benefit from pleading the Fifth. By falling silent during the Turing test, artificial intelligence (AI) systems can fool human judges into believing they're human, according to a study by machine intelligence researchers from Coventry University. Alan Turing, considered the father of theoretical computer science and AI, devised the Turing test in an attempt to outline what it means for a thing to think. In the test, a human judge or interrogator has a conversation with an unseen entity, which might be a human or a machine. The test posits that the machine can be considered to be "thinking" or "intelligent" if the interrogator is unable to tell whether or not the machine is a human.

Last week's fatal crash involving a Tesla Model S offers a startling reminder that driverless technology is still a work in progress. As Tesla's own blog post on the "tragic loss" points out, the autopilot technology that was controlling Joshua Brown's car when it ploughed into a truck is in a "public beta phase". That means the software has been released into the wild to be stress-tested by members of the public so that bugs can be flushed out. It's the kind of approach we are used to seeing when we gain early access to new email applications or virtual reality headsets. As Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak told the New York Times: "Beta products shouldn't have such life-and-death consequences." Until there's been a full investigation into the tragic incident, we won't know whether it was a software glitch or human error (particularly with reports suggesting the driver may have been watching a Harry Potter DVD) at fault.

There are certain clues that will expose someone when they are lying right to your face – but how do you spot a liar in emails or the'About Me' section of a dating profile? Researchers have developed an algorithm that can spot a deceiver 70 percent of time just by analyzing their word use, structure and context. This computerized lie detector was designed by feeding it emails with both lies and truthful statements until it learned patterns linked to deception. Researchers have developed an algorithm that takes the guessing out by telling users when someone is lying through analyzing word use, structure and context. While comparing the truths and the lies in the sample emails, the City University of London discovered that those who are being deceitful less likely to use personal pronounces – such as'I', 'me', mine' – and will use more adjectives instead, reports The Telegraph.

In June on /r/MachineLearning, there were free videos, free books, free courseware, and a quality curriculum made up of free offerings. The word of the month for June is clearly a four letter word starting with'F'. This lot of videos covers a wide range of topics, from general AI, to design issues, to cloud computing, to a variety of machine learning topics and beyond. Microsoft Research has added heavily to these offerings on what seems to be a daily basis since this Reddit post as well. Free knowledge from a top research institute in the field is always welcome.