The minimum description length (MDL) principle in supervised learning is studied. One of the most important theories for the MDL principle is Barron and Cover's theory (BC theory), which gives a mathematical justification of the MDL principle. The original BC theory, however, can be applied to supervised learning only approximately and limitedly. Though Barron et al. recently succeeded in removing a similar approximation in case of unsupervised learning, their idea cannot be essentially applied to supervised learning in general. To overcome this issue, an extension of BC theory to supervised learning is proposed. The derived risk bound has several advantages inherited from the original BC theory. First, the risk bound holds for finite sample size. Second, it requires remarkably few assumptions. Third, the risk bound has a form of redundancy of the two-stage code for the MDL procedure. Hence, the proposed extension gives a mathematical justification of the MDL principle to supervised learning like the original BC theory. As an important example of application, new risk and (probabilistic) regret bounds of lasso with random design are derived. The derived risk bound holds for any finite sample size $n$ and feature number $p$ even if $n\ll p$ without boundedness of features in contrast to the past work. Behavior of the regret bound is investigated by numerical simulations. We believe that this is the first extension of BC theory to general supervised learning with random design without approximation.

We present a unifying framework for adapting the update direction in gradient-based iterative optimization methods. As natural special cases we re-derive classical momentum and Nesterov's accelerated gradient method, lending a new intuitive interpretation to the latter algorithm. We show that a new algorithm, which we term Regularised Gradient Descent, can converge more quickly than either Nesterov's algorithm or the classical momentum algorithm.

Mechanical devices such as engines, vehicles, aircrafts, etc., are typically instrumented with numerous sensors to capture the behavior and health of the machine. However, there are often external factors or variables which are not captured by sensors leading to time-series which are inherently unpredictable. For instance, manual controls and/or unmonitored environmental conditions or load may lead to inherently unpredictable time-series. Detecting anomalies in such scenarios becomes challenging using standard approaches based on mathematical models that rely on stationarity, or prediction models that utilize prediction errors to detect anomalies. We propose a Long Short Term Memory Networks based Encoder-Decoder scheme for Anomaly Detection (EncDec-AD) that learns to reconstruct 'normal' time-series behavior, and thereafter uses reconstruction error to detect anomalies. We experiment with three publicly available quasi predictable time-series datasets: power demand, space shuttle, and ECG, and two real-world engine datasets with both predictive and unpredictable behavior. We show that EncDec-AD is robust and can detect anomalies from predictable, unpredictable, periodic, aperiodic, and quasi-periodic time-series. Further, we show that EncDec-AD is able to detect anomalies from short time-series (length as small as 30) as well as long time-series (length as large as 500).

We consider a collaborative online learning paradigm, wherein a group of agents connected through a social network are engaged in playing a stochastic multi-armed bandit game. Each time an agent takes an action, the corresponding reward is instantaneously observed by the agent, as well as its neighbours in the social network. We perform a regret analysis of various policies in this collaborative learning setting. A key finding of this paper is that natural extensions of widely-studied single agent learning policies to the network setting need not perform well in terms of regret. In particular, we identify a class of non-altruistic and individually consistent policies, and argue by deriving regret lower bounds that they are liable to suffer a large regret in the networked setting. We also show that the learning performance can be substantially improved if the agents exploit the structure of the network, and develop a simple learning algorithm based on dominating sets of the network. Specifically, we first consider a star network, which is a common motif in hierarchical social networks, and show analytically that the hub agent can be used as an information sink to expedite learning and improve the overall regret. We also derive networkwide regret bounds for the algorithm applied to general networks. We conduct numerical experiments on a variety of networks to corroborate our analytical results.

Approximate inference via information projection has been recently introduced as a general-purpose approach for efficient probabilistic inference given sparse variables. This manuscript goes beyond classical sparsity by proposing efficient algorithms for approximate inference via information projection that are applicable to any structure on the set of variables that admits enumeration using a \emph{matroid}. We show that the resulting information projection can be reduced to combinatorial submodular optimization subject to matroid constraints. Further, leveraging recent advances in submodular optimization, we provide an efficient greedy algorithm with strong optimization-theoretic guarantees. The class of probabilistic models that can be expressed in this way is quite broad and, as we show, includes group sparse regression, group sparse principal components analysis and sparse canonical correlation analysis, among others. Moreover, empirical results on simulated data and high dimensional neuroimaging data highlight the superior performance of the information projection approach as compared to established baselines for a range of probabilistic models.

In this paper we present deterministic conditions for success of sparse subspace clustering (SSC) under missing data, when data is assumed to come from a Union of Subspaces (UoS) model. We consider two algorithms, which are variants of SSC with entry-wise zero-filling that differ in terms of the optimization problems used to find affinity matrix for spectral clustering. For both the algorithms, we provide deterministic conditions for any pattern of missing data such that perfect clustering can be achieved. We provide extensive sets of simulation results for clustering as well as completion of data at missing entries, under the UoS model. Our experimental results indicate that in contrast to the full data case, accurate clustering does not imply accurate subspace identification and completion, indicating the natural order of relative hardness of these problems.

Cluster-wise linear regression (CLR), a clustering problem intertwined with regression, is to find clusters of entities such that the overall sum of squared errors from regressions performed over these clusters is minimized, where each cluster may have different variances. We generalize the CLR problem by allowing each entity to have more than one observation, and refer to it as generalized CLR. We propose an exact mathematical programming based approach relying on column generation, a column generation based heuristic algorithm that clusters predefined groups of entities, a metaheuristic genetic algorithm with adapted Lloyd's algorithm for K-means clustering, a two-stage approach, and a modified algorithm of Sp{\"a}th \cite{Spath1979} for solving generalized CLR. We examine the performance of our algorithms on a stock keeping unit (SKU) clustering problem employed in forecasting halo and cannibalization effects in promotions using real-world retail data from a large supermarket chain. In the SKU clustering problem, the retailer needs to cluster SKUs based on their seasonal effects in response to promotions. The seasonal effects are the results of regressions with predictors being promotion mechanisms and seasonal dummies performed over clusters generated. We compare the performance of all proposed algorithms for the SKU problem with real-world and synthetic data.

The authors present a cyber-physical systems study on the estimation of driver behavior in autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. Extending upon previous work, the approach described is suitable for the long term estimation and tracking of autonomous vehicle behavior. The proposed system makes use of a previously defined Hybrid State System and Hidden Markov Model (HSS+HMM) system which has provided good results for driver behavior estimation. The HSS+HMM system utilizes the hybrid characteristics of decision-behavior coupling of many systems such as the driver and the vehicle, uses Kalman Filter estimates of observable parameters to track the instantaneous continuous state, and estimates the most likely driver state. The HSS+HMM system is encompassed in a HSS structure and inter-system connectivity is determined by using Signal Processing and Pattern Recognition techniques. The proposed method is suitable for scenarios that involve unknown decisions of other individuals, such as lane changes or intersection precedence/access. The long term driver behavior estimation system involves an extended HSS+HMM structure that is capable of including external information in the estimation process. Through the grafting and pruning of metastates, the HSS+HMM system can be dynamically updated to best represent driver choices given external information. Three application examples are also provided to elucidate the theoretical system.

Deep learning is a fascinating field of study and the techniques are achieving world class results in a range of challenging machine learning problems. Which library should you use and which techniques should you focus on? In this post you will discover a 14-part crash course into deep learning in Python with the easy to use and powerful Keras library. This mini-course is intended for python machine learning practitioners that are already comfortable with scikit-learn on the SciPy ecosystem for machine learning. Applied Deep Learning in Python Mini-Course Photo by darkday, some rights reserved. Before we get started, let's make sure you are in the right place.

This has been one of the most intriguing questions in science fiction and philosophy since the advent of machines. With modern technology, such questions are no longer bound to creative conjecture. Machine learning is all around us. From deciding which movie you might want to watch next on Netflix to predicting stock market trends, machine learning has a profound impact on how data is understood in the modern era. This tutorial aims to give you an accessible introduction on how to use machine learning techniques for your projects and data sets. In just 20 minutes, you will learn how to use Python to apply different machine learning techniques -- from decision trees to deep neural networks -- to a sample data set.