This paper identifies a problem with the usual procedure for L2-regularization parameter estimation in a domain adaptation setting. In such a setting, there are differences between the distributions generating the training data (source domain) and the test data (target domain). The usual cross-validation procedure requires validation data, which can not be obtained from the unlabeled target data. The problem is that if one decides to use source validation data, the regularization parameter is underestimated. One possible solution is to scale the source validation data through importance weighting, but we show that this correction is not sufficient. We conclude the paper with an empirical analysis of the effect of several importance weight estimators on the estimation of the regularization parameter.

The Event Calculus is a temporal logic that has been used as a basis in event recognition applications, providing among others, direct connections to machine learning, via Inductive Logic Programming (ILP). We present an ILP system for online learning of Event Calculus theories. To allow for a single-pass learning strategy, we use the Hoeffding bound for evaluating clauses on a subset of the input stream. We employ a decoupling scheme of the Event Calculus axioms during the learning process, that allows to learn each clause in isolation. Moreover, we use abductive-inductive logic programming techniques to handle unobserved target predicates. We evaluate our approach on an activity recognition application and compare it to a number of batch learning techniques. We obtain results of comparable predicative accuracy with significant speed-ups in training time. We also outperform hand-crafted rules and match the performance of a sound incremental learner that can only operate on noise-free datasets. This paper is under consideration for acceptance in TPLP.

Although software analytics has experienced rapid growth as a research area, it has not yet reached its full potential for wide industrial adoption. Most of the existing work in software analytics still relies heavily on costly manual feature engineering processes, and they mainly address the traditional classification problems, as opposed to predicting future events. We present a vision for \emph{DeepSoft}, an \emph{end-to-end} generic framework for modeling software and its development process to predict future risks and recommend interventions. DeepSoft, partly inspired by human memory, is built upon the powerful deep learning-based Long Short Term Memory architecture that is capable of learning long-term temporal dependencies that occur in software evolution. Such deep learned patterns of software can be used to address a range of challenging problems such as code and task recommendation and prediction. DeepSoft provides a new approach for research into modeling of source code, risk prediction and mitigation, developer modeling, and automatically generating code patches from bug reports.

When faced with a supervised learning problem, we hope to have rich enough data to build a model that predicts future instances well. However, in practice, problems can exhibit predictive heterogeneity: most instances might be relatively easy to predict, while others might be predictive outliers for which a model trained on the entire dataset does not perform well. Identifying these can help focus future data collection. We present gLOP, the global and Local Penalty, a framework for capturing predictive heterogeneity and identifying predictive outliers. gLOP is based on penalized regression for multitask learning, which improves learning by leveraging training signal information from related tasks. We give two optimization algorithms for gLOP, one space-efficient, and another giving the full regularization path. We also characterize uniqueness in terms of the data and tuning parameters, and present empirical results on synthetic data and on two health research problems.

Studies in recent years have demonstrated that neural organization and structure impact an individual's ability to perform a given task. Specifically, individuals with greater neural efficiency have been shown to outperform those with less organized functional structure. In this work, we compare the predictive ability of properties of neural connectivity on a working memory task. We provide two novel approaches for characterizing functional network connectivity from electroencephalography (EEG), and compare these features to the average power across frequency bands in EEG channels. Our first novel approach represents functional connectivity structure through the distribution of eigenvalues making up channel coherence matrices in multiple frequency bands. Our second approach creates a connectivity network at each frequency band, and assesses variability in average path lengths of connected components and degree across the network. Failures in digit and sentence recall on single trials are detected using a Gaussian classifier for each feature set, at each frequency band. The classifier results are then fused across frequency bands, with the resulting detection performance summarized using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic.

Scientific investigations that incorporate next generation sequencing involve analyses of high-dimensional data where the need to organize, collate and interpret the outcomes are pressingly important. Currently, data can be collected at the microbiome level leading to the possibility of personalized medicine whereby treatments can be tailored at this scale. In this paper, we lay down a statistical framework for this type of analysis with a view toward synthesis of products tailored to individual patients. Although the paper applies the technique to data for a particular infectious disease, the methodology is sufficiently rich to be expanded to other problems in medicine, especially those in which coincident `-omics' covariates and clinical responses are simultaneously captured.

Polynomial networks and factorization machines are two recently-proposed models that can efficiently use feature interactions in classification and regression tasks. In this paper, we revisit both models from a unified perspective. Based on this new view, we study the properties of both models and propose new efficient training algorithms. Key to our approach is to cast parameter learning as a low-rank symmetric tensor estimation problem, which we solve by multi-convex optimization. We demonstrate our approach on regression and recommender system tasks.

We study Frank-Wolfe methods for nonconvex stochastic and finite-sum optimization problems. Frank-Wolfe methods (in the convex case) have gained tremendous recent interest in machine learning and optimization communities due to their projection-free property and their ability to exploit structured constraints. However, our understanding of these algorithms in the nonconvex setting is fairly limited. In this paper, we propose nonconvex stochastic Frank-Wolfe methods and analyze their convergence properties. For objective functions that decompose into a finite-sum, we leverage ideas from variance reduction techniques for convex optimization to obtain new variance reduced nonconvex Frank-Wolfe methods that have provably faster convergence than the classical Frank-Wolfe method. Finally, we show that the faster convergence rates of our variance reduced methods also translate into improved convergence rates for the stochastic setting.

Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) is a machine learning technique used for single class classification and outlier detection. SVDD based K-chart was first introduced by Sun and Tsung for monitoring multivariate processes when underlying distribution of process parameters or quality characteristics depart from Normality. The method first trains a SVDD model on data obtained from stable or in-control operations of the process to obtain a threshold $R^2$ and kernel center a. For each new observation, its Kernel distance from the Kernel center a is calculated. The kernel distance is compared against the threshold $R^2$ to determine if the observation is within the control limits. The non-parametric K-chart provides an attractive alternative to the traditional control charts such as the Hotelling's $T^2$ charts when distribution of the underlying multivariate data is either non-normal or is unknown. But there are challenges when K-chart is deployed in practice. The K-chart requires calculating kernel distance of each new observation but there are no guidelines on how to interpret the kernel distance plot and infer about shifts in process mean or changes in process variation. This limits the application of K-charts in big-data applications such as equipment health monitoring, where observations are generated at a very high frequency. In this scenario, the analyst using the K-chart is inundated with kernel distance results at a very high frequency, generally without any recourse for detecting presence of any assignable causes of variation. We propose a new SVDD based control chart, called as $K_T$ chart, which addresses challenges encountered when using K-chart for big-data applications. The $K_T$ charts can be used to simultaneously track process variation and central tendency. We illustrate the successful use of $K_T$ chart using the Tennessee Eastman process data.

Many aspects of the design of efficient crowdsourcing processes, such as defining workers bonuses, fair prices and time limits of the tasks, involve knowledge of the likely duration of the task at hand. In this work we introduce a new timesensitive Bayesian aggregation method that simultaneously estimates a tasks duration and obtains reliable aggregations of crowdsourced judgments. Our method, called BCCTime, uses latent variables to represent the uncertainty about the workers completion time, the tasks duration and the workers accuracy. To relate the quality of a judgment to the time a worker spends on a task, our model assumes that each task is completed within a latent time window within which all workers with a propensity to genuinely attempt the labelling task (i.e., no spammers) are expected to submit their judgments. In contrast, workers with a lower propensity to valid labelling, such as spammers, bots or lazy labellers, are assumed to perform tasks considerably faster or slower than the time required by normal workers. Specifically, we use efficient message-passing Bayesian inference to learn approximate posterior probabilities of (i) the confusion matrix of each worker, (ii) the propensity to valid labelling of each worker, (iii) the unbiased duration of each task and (iv) the true label of each task. Using two real- world public datasets for entity linking tasks, we show that BCCTime produces up to 11% more accurate classifications and up to 100% more informative estimates of a tasks duration compared to stateoftheart methods.