Recently, a general method for analyzing the statistical accuracy of the EM algorithm has been developed and applied to some simple latent variable models [Balakrishnan et al. 2016]. In that method, the basin of attraction for valid initialization is required to be a ball around the truth. Using Stein's Lemma, we extend these results in the case of estimating the centers of a two-component Gaussian mixture in $d$ dimensions. In particular, we significantly expand the basin of attraction to be the intersection of a half space and a ball around the origin. If the signal-to-noise ratio is at least a constant multiple of $ \sqrt{d\log d} $, we show that a random initialization strategy is feasible.

We survey existing rules of thumb, propose novel methods, and comprehensively evaluate a number of solutions to the problem of calculating the cost to serve each location in a single-vehicle transport setting. Cost to serve analysis has applications both strategically and operationally in transportation settings. The problem is formally modeled as the traveling salesperson game (TSG), a cooperative transferable utility game in which agents correspond to locations in a traveling salesperson problem (TSP). The total cost to serve all locations in the TSP is the length of an optimal tour. An allocation divides the total cost among individual locations, thus providing the cost to serve each of them. As one of the most important normative division schemes in cooperative games, the Shapley value gives a principled and fair allocation for a broad variety of games including the TSG. We consider a number of direct and sampling-based procedures for calculating the Shapley value, and prove that approximating the Shapley value of the TSG within a constant factor is NP-hard. Treating the Shapley value as an ideal baseline allocation, we survey six proxies for it that are each relatively easy to compute. Some of these proxies are rules of thumb and some are procedures international delivery companies use(d) as cost allocation methods. We perform an experimental evaluation using synthetic Euclidean games as well as games derived from real-world tours calculated for scenarios involving fast-moving goods; where deliveries are made on a road network every day. We explore several computationally tractable allocation techniques that are good proxies for the Shapley value in problem instances of a size and complexity that is commercially relevant.

Time-Bounded A* is a real-time, single-agent, deterministic search algorithm that expands states of a graph in the same order as A* does, but that unlike A* interleaves search and action execution. Known to outperform state-of-the-art real-time search algorithms based on Korf's Learning Real-Time A* (LRTA*) in some benchmarks, it has not been studied in detail and is sometimes not considered as a ``true'' real-time search algorithm since it fails in non-reversible problems even it the goal is still reachable from the current state. In this paper we propose and study Time-Bounded Best-First Search (TB(BFS)) a straightforward generalization of the time-bounded approach to any best-first search algorithm. Furthermore, we propose Restarting Time-Bounded Weighted A* (TB_R(WA*)), an algorithm that deals more adequately with non-reversible search graphs, eliminating ``backtracking moves'' and incorporating search restarts and heuristic learning. In non-reversible problems we prove that TB(BFS) terminates and we deduce cost bounds for the solutions returned by Time-Bounded Weighted A* (TB(WA*)), an instance of TB(BFS). Furthermore, we prove TB_R(WA*), under reasonable conditions, terminates. We evaluate TB(WA) in both grid pathfinding and the 15-puzzle. In addition, we evaluate TB_R(WA*) on the racetrack problem. We compare our algorithms to LSS-LRTWA*, a variant of LRTA* that can exploit lookahead search and a weighted heuristic. A general observation is that the performance of both TB(WA*) and TB_R(WA*) improves as the weight parameter is increased. In addition, our time-bounded algorithms almost always outperform LSS-LRTWA* by a significant margin.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods are Bayesian analogs to popular stochastic optimization methods; however, this connection is not well studied. We explore this relationship by applying simulated annealing to an SGMCMC algorithm. Furthermore, we extend recent SG-MCMC methods with two key components: i) adaptive preconditioners (as in ADAgrad or RMSprop), and ii) adaptive element-wise momentum weights. The zero-temperature limit gives a novel stochastic optimization method with adaptive element-wise momentum weights, while conventional optimization methods only have a shared, static momentum weight. Under certain assumptions, our theoretical analysis suggests the proposed simulated annealing approach converges close to the global optima. Experiments on several deep neural network models show state-of-the-art results compared to related stochastic optimization algorithms.

In this paper, we investigate a divide and conquer approach to Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR). Given n samples, the division step involves separating the points based on some underlying disjoint partition of the input space (possibly via clustering), and then computing a KRR estimate for each partition. The conquering step is simple: for each partition, we only consider its own local estimate for prediction. We establish conditions under which we can give generalization bounds for this estimator, as well as achieve optimal minimax rates. We also show that the approximation error component of the generalization error is lesser than when a single KRR estimate is fit on the data: thus providing both statistical and computational advantages over a single KRR estimate over the entire data (or an averaging over random partitions as in other recent work, [30]). Lastly, we provide experimental validation for our proposed estimator and our assumptions.

Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate the contributions of different types of user connectivity and content information in community detection. We show that user content and endorsement filtered connectivity information are complementary to each other in clustering politically motivated users into pure political communities. Word usage is the strongest indicator of users' political orientation among all content categories. Incorporating user-word matrix and word similarity regularizer provides the missing link in connectivity only methods which suffer from detection of artificially large number of clusters for Twitter networks.

In many real-world classification problems, the labels of training examples are randomly corrupted. Most previous theoretical work on classification with label noise assumes that the two classes are separable, that the label noise is independent of the true class label, or that the noise proportions for each class are known. In this work, we give conditions that are necessary and sufficient for the true class-conditional distributions to be identifiable. These conditions are weaker than those analyzed previously, and allow for the classes to be nonseparable and the noise levels to be asymmetric and unknown. The conditions essentially state that a majority of the observed labels are correct and that the true class-conditional distributions are "mutually irreducible," a concept we introduce that limits the similarity of the two distributions. For any label noise problem, there is a unique pair of true class-conditional distributions satisfying the proposed conditions, and we argue that this pair corresponds in a certain sense to maximal denoising of the observed distributions. Our results are facilitated by a connection to "mixture proportion estimation," which is the problem of estimating the maximal proportion of one distribution that is present in another. We establish a novel rate of convergence result for mixture proportion estimation, and apply this to obtain consistency of a discrimination rule based on surrogate loss minimization. Experimental results on benchmark data and a nuclear particle classification problem demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.

Neuroscience is undergoing faster changes than ever before. Over 100 years our field qualitatively described and invasively manipulated single or few organisms to gain anatomical, physiological, and pharmacological insights. In the last 10 years neuroscience spawned quantitative big-sample datasets on microanatomy, synaptic connections, optogenetic brain-behavior assays, and high-level cognition. While growing data availability and information granularity have been amply discussed, we direct attention to a routinely neglected question: How will the unprecedented data richness shape data analysis practices? Statistical reasoning is becoming more central to distill neurobiological knowledge from healthy and pathological brain recordings. We believe that large-scale data analysis will use more models that are non-parametric, generative, mixing frequentist and Bayesian aspects, and grounded in different statistical inferences.

In this work, we explore how probabilistic programs can be used to represent policies in sequential decision problems. In this formulation, a probabilistic program is a black-box stochastic simulator for both the problem domain and the agent. We relate classic policy gradient techniques to recently introduced black-box variational methods which generalize to probabilistic program inference. We present case studies in the Canadian traveler problem, Rock Sample, and a benchmark for optimal diagnosis inspired by Guess Who. Each study illustrates how programs can efficiently represent policies using moderate numbers of parameters.

We propose a framework, named Aggregated Wasserstein, for computing a dissimilarity measure or distance between two Hidden Markov Models with state conditional distributions being Gaussian. For such HMMs, the marginal distribution at any time spot follows a Gaussian mixture distribution, a fact exploited to softly match, aka register, the states in two HMMs. We refer to such HMMs as Gaussian mixture model-HMM (GMM-HMM). The registration of states is inspired by the intrinsic relationship of optimal transport and the Wasserstein metric between distributions. Specifically, the components of the marginal GMMs are matched by solving an optimal transport problem where the cost between components is the Wasserstein metric for Gaussian distributions. The solution of the optimization problem is a fast approximation to the Wasserstein metric between two GMMs. The new Aggregated Wasserstein distance is a semi-metric and can be computed without generating Monte Carlo samples. It is invariant to relabeling or permutation of the states. This distance quantifies the dissimilarity of GMM-HMMs by measuring both the difference between the two marginal GMMs and the difference between the two transition matrices. Our new distance is tested on the tasks of retrieval and classification of time series. Experiments on both synthetic data and real data have demonstrated its advantages in terms of accuracy as well as efficiency in comparison with existing distances based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence.