Municipal solid waste management (MSWM) is a challenging issue of urban development in developing countries. Each country having different socio-economic-environmental background, might not accept a particular disposal method as the optimal choice. Selection of suitable disposal method in MSWM, under vague and imprecise information can be considered as multi criteria decision making problem (MCDM). In the present paper, TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methodology is extended based on credibility theory for evaluating the performances of MSW disposal methods under some criteria fixed by experts. The proposed model helps decision makers to choose a preferable alternative for their municipal area. A sensitivity analysis by our proposed model confirms this fact.

This is a brief technical note to clarify some of the issues with applying the application of the algorithm posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) in environments without fixed episodes. In particular, this paper aims to: - Review some of results which have been proven for finite horizon MDPs (Osband et al 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2016) and also for MDPs with finite ergodic structure (Gopalan et al 2014). - Review similar results for optimistic algorithms in infinite horizon problems (Jaksch et al 2010, Bartlett and Tewari 2009, Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2011), with particular attention to the dynamic episode growth. - Highlight the delicate technical issue which has led to a fault in the proof of the lazy-PSRL algorithm (Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2015). We present an explicit counterexample to this style of argument. Therefore, we suggest that the Theorem 2 in (Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2015) be instead considered a conjecture, as it has no rigorous proof. - Present pragmatic approaches to apply PSRL in infinite horizon problems. We conjecture that, under some additional assumptions, it will be possible to obtain bounds $O( \sqrt{T} )$ even without episodic reset. We hope that this note serves to clarify existing results in the field of reinforcement learning and provides interesting motivation for future work.

The dynamic nature of air quality chemistry and transport makes it difficult to identify the mixture of air pollutants for a region. In this study of air quality in the Houston metropolitan area we apply dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) to a normalized multivariate time series of daily concentration measurements of five pollutants (O3, CO, NO2, SO2, PM2.5) from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2011 for each of the 24 hours in a day. The resulting dynamic components are examined by hour across days for the 3 year period. Diurnal and seasonal patterns are revealed underlining times when DPCA performs best and two principal components (PCs) explain most variability in the multivariate series. DPCA is shown to be superior to static principal component analysis (PCA) in discovery of linear relations among transformed pollutant measurements. DPCA captures the time-dependent correlation structure of the underlying pollutants recorded at up to 34 monitoring sites in the region. In winter mornings the first principal component (PC1) (mainly CO and NO2) explains up to 70% of variability. Augmenting with the second principal component (PC2) (mainly driven by SO2) the explained variability rises to 90%. In the afternoon, O3 gains prominence in the second principal component. The seasonal profile of PCs' contribution to variance loses its distinction in the afternoon, yet cumulatively PC1 and PC2 still explain up to 65% of variability in ambient air data. DPCA provides a strategy for identifying the changing air quality profile for the region studied.

Consider a noisy linear observation model with an unknown permutation, based on observing $y = \Pi^* A x^* + w$, where $x^* \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is an unknown vector, $\Pi^*$ is an unknown $n \times n$ permutation matrix, and $w \in \mathbb{R}^n$ is additive Gaussian noise. We analyze the problem of permutation recovery in a random design setting in which the entries of the matrix $A$ are drawn i.i.d. from a standard Gaussian distribution, and establish sharp conditions on the SNR, sample size $n$, and dimension $d$ under which $\Pi^*$ is exactly and approximately recoverable. On the computational front, we show that the maximum likelihood estimate of $\Pi^*$ is NP-hard to compute, while also providing a polynomial time algorithm when $d =1$.

This is a brief technical note to clarify the state of lower bounds on regret for reinforcement learning. In particular, this paper: - Reproduces a lower bound on regret for reinforcement learning, similar to the result of Theorem 5 in the journal UCRL2 paper (Jaksch et al 2010). - Clarifies that the proposed proof of Theorem 6 in the REGAL paper (Bartlett and Tewari 2009) does not hold using the standard techniques without further work. We suggest that this result should instead be considered a conjecture as it has no rigorous proof. - Suggests that the conjectured lower bound given by (Bartlett and Tewari 2009) is incorrect and, in fact, it is possible to improve the scaling of the upper bound to match the weaker lower bounds presented in this paper. We hope that this note serves to clarify existing results in the field of reinforcement learning and provides interesting motivation for future work.

Existing language models such as n-grams for software code often fail to capture a long context where dependent code elements scatter far apart. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to build a language model for software code to address this particular issue. Our language model, partly inspired by human memory, is built upon the powerful deep learning-based Long Short Term Memory architecture that is capable of learning long-term dependencies which occur frequently in software code. Results from our intrinsic evaluation on a corpus of Java projects have demonstrated the effectiveness of our language model. This work contributes to realizing our vision for DeepSoft, an end-to-end, generic deep learning-based framework for modeling software and its development process.

The effectiveness of supervised learning techniques has made them ubiquitous in research and practice. In high-dimensional settings, supervised learning commonly relies on dimensionality reduction to improve performance and identify the most important factors in predicting outcomes. However, the economic importance of learning has made it a natural target for adversarial manipulation of training data, which we term poisoning attacks. Prior approaches to dealing with robust supervised learning rely on strong assumptions about the nature of the feature matrix, such as feature independence and sub-Gaussian noise with low variance. We propose an integrated method for robust regression that relaxes these assumptions, assuming only that the feature matrix can be well approximated by a low-rank matrix. Our techniques integrate improved robust low-rank matrix approximation and robust principle component regression, and yield strong performance guarantees. Moreover, we experimentally show that our methods significantly outperform state of the art both in running time and prediction error.

Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally around the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.

We propose the convex factorization machine (CFM), which is a convex variant of the widely used Factorization Machines (FMs). Specifically, we employ a linear+quadratic model and regularize the linear term with the $\ell_2$-regularizer and the quadratic term with the trace norm regularizer. Then, we formulate the CFM optimization as a semidefinite programming problem and propose an efficient optimization procedure with Hazan's algorithm. A key advantage of CFM over existing FMs is that it can find a globally optimal solution, while FMs may get a poor locally optimal solution since the objective function of FMs is non-convex. In addition, the proposed algorithm is simple yet effective and can be implemented easily. Finally, CFM is a general factorization method and can also be used for other factorization problems including including multi-view matrix factorization and tensor completion problems. Through synthetic and movielens datasets, we first show that the proposed CFM achieves results competitive to FMs. Furthermore, in a toxicogenomics prediction task, we show that CFM outperforms a state-of-the-art tensor factorization method.

In this paper, we provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different target distribution. On the one hand, we propose an improvement of the previous approach proposed by Germain et al. (2013), that relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter PAC-Bayesian domain adaptation bound for the stochastic Gibbs classifier. We specialize it to linear classifiers, and design a learning algorithm which shows interesting results on a synthetic problem and on a popular sentiment annotation task. On the other hand, we generalize these results to multisource domain adaptation allowing us to take into account different source domains. This study opens the door to tackle domain adaptation tasks by making use of all the PAC-Bayesian tools.