Borderline personality disorder and narcissistic personality disorder are important nosographic entities and have been subject of intensive investigations. The currently prevailing psychodynamic theory for mental disorders is based on the repertoire of defense mechanisms employed. Another line of research is concerned with the study of psychological traumas and dissociation as a defensive response. Both theories can be used to shed light on some aspects of pathological mental functioning, and have many points of contact. This work merges these two psychological theories, and builds a model of mental function in a relational context called Quadripolar Relational Model. The model, which is enriched with ideas borrowed from the field of computer science, leads to a new therapeutic proposal for psychological traumas and personality disorders.

We present a fast variational Bayesian algorithm for performing non-negative matrix factorisation and tri-factorisation. We show that our approach achieves faster convergence per iteration and timestep (wall-clock) than Gibbs sampling and non-probabilistic approaches, and do not require additional samples to estimate the posterior. We show that in particular for matrix tri-factorisation convergence is difficult, but our variational Bayesian approach offers a fast solution, allowing the tri-factorisation approach to be used more effectively.

Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions-- is the perceived "neutrality" of computers. It is argued that because computer models do not hold personal prejudice, the predictions they produce will be equally free from prejudice. There is growing recognition that employing algorithms does not remove the potential for bias, and can even amplify it, since training data were inevitably generated by a process that is itself biased. In this paper, we provide a probabilistic definition of algorithmic bias. We propose a method to remove bias from predictive models by removing all information regarding protected variables from the permitted training data. Unlike previous work in this area, our framework is general enough to accommodate arbitrary data types, e.g. binary, continuous, etc. Motivated by models currently in use in the criminal justice system that inform decisions on pre-trial release and paroling, we apply our proposed method to a dataset on the criminal histories of individuals at the time of sentencing to produce "race-neutral" predictions of re-arrest. In the process, we demonstrate that the most common approach to creating "race-neutral" models-- omitting race as a covariate-- still results in racially disparate predictions. We then demonstrate that the application of our proposed method to these data removes racial disparities from predictions with minimal impact on predictive accuracy.

Abstract--In this paper we investigate a link between state-space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state-space models are transformed into continuous time form and corresponding Gaussian Process kernels are derived. Experimental results demonstrate that the derived GP kernels are correct and appropriate for Gaussian Process Regression. An experiment with a real world dataset shows that the modeling is identical with state-space models and with the proposed GP kernels. The considered connection allows the researchers to look at their models from a different angle and facilitate sharing ideas between these two different modeling approaches. I NTRODUCTION ANDM OTIVATION Time series modeling and prediction is one of oldest topics in statistics. The very first statisticians already dealt with time dependent data. For example, Beveridge wheat price (years 1500 to 1869) or Wolfer's sunspot number (years 1610-1960) [1] are examples of very early time series. Nowadays time series analysis and forecasting is ubiquitous in many fields of science and engineering. Econometricians, physicists, statisticians, biologists, climatologists etc. encounter time dependent data in their daily work. Since this problem is very old and very widespread, different fields of science developed their own sets of methods for analysis and forecasting of time series. For instance, in statistics and econometrics domains the most common models are state-space (SS) models [2], [3]. In the physics domain the dominating class of models constitute nonlinear dynamical models [4].

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique for evaluating the ability of statistical models/learning systems based on a given data set. Despite its wide applicability, the rather heavy computational cost can prevent its use as the system size grows. To resolve this difficulty in the case of Bayesian linear regression, we develop a formula for evaluating the leave-one-out CV error approximately without actually performing CV. The usefulness of the developed formula is tested by statistical mechanical analysis for a synthetic model. This is confirmed by application to a real-world supernova data set as well.

This paper studies how to capture dependency graph structures from real data which may not be multivariate Gaussian. Starting from marginal loss functions not necessarily derived from probability distributions, we use an additive over-parametrization with shrinkage to incorporate variable dependencies into the criterion. An iterative Gaussian graph learning algorithm is proposed with ease in implementation. Statistical analysis shows that with the error measured in terms of a proper Bregman divergence, the estimators have fast rate of convergence. Real-life examples in different settings are given to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology.

We develop an efficient alternating framework for learning a generalized version of Factorization Machine (gFM) on steaming data with provable guarantees. When the instances are sampled from $d$ dimensional random Gaussian vectors and the target second order coefficient matrix in gFM is of rank $k$, our algorithm converges linearly, achieves $O(\epsilon)$ recovery error after retrieving $O(k^{3}d\log(1/\epsilon))$ training instances, consumes $O(kd)$ memory in one-pass of dataset and only requires matrix-vector product operations in each iteration. The key ingredient of our framework is a construction of an estimation sequence endowed with a so-called Conditionally Independent RIP condition (CI-RIP). As special cases of gFM, our framework can be applied to symmetric or asymmetric rank-one matrix sensing problems, such as inductive matrix completion and phase retrieval.

A body of recent work in modeling neural activity focuses on recovering low-dimensional latent features that capture the statistical structure of large-scale neural populations. Most such approaches have focused on linear generative models, where inference is computationally tractable. Here, we propose fLDS, a general class of nonlinear generative models that permits the firing rate of each neuron to vary as an arbitrary smooth function of a latent, linear dynamical state. This extra flexibility allows the model to capture a richer set of neural variability than a purely linear model, but retains an easily visualizable low-dimensional latent space. To fit this class of non-conjugate models we propose a variational inference scheme, along with a novel approximate posterior capable of capturing rich temporal correlations across time. We show that our techniques permit inference in a wide class of generative models.We also show in application to two neural datasets that, compared to state-of-the-art neural population models, fLDS captures a much larger proportion of neural variability with a small number of latent dimensions, providing superior predictive performance and interpretability.

In this paper, we introduce a new image representation based on a multilayer kernel machine. Unlike traditional kernel methods where data representation is decoupled from the prediction task, we learn how to shape the kernel with supervision. We proceed by first proposing improvements of the recently-introduced convolutional kernel networks (CKNs) in the context of unsupervised learning; then, we derive backpropagation rules to take advantage of labeled training data. The resulting model is a new type of convolutional neural network, where optimizing the filters at each layer is equivalent to learning a linear subspace in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that our method achieves reasonably competitive performance for image classification on some standard "deep learning" datasets such as CIFAR-10 and SVHN, and also for image super-resolution, demonstrating the applicability of our approach to a large variety of image-related tasks.

We propose and investigate selective reduced rank regression for constructing optimal explanatory factors from a parsimonious subset of input features. The proposed estimators enjoy sharp oracle inequalities, and with a predictive information criterion for model selection, they adapt to unknown sparsity by controlling both rank and row support of the coefficient matrix. A class of algorithms is developed that can accommodate various convex and nonconvex sparsity-inducing penalties, and can be used for rank-constrained variable screening in high-dimensional multivariate data. The paper also showcases applications in macroeconomics and computer vision to demonstrate how low-dimensional data structures can be effectively captured by joint variable selection and projection.