The vast majority of current machine learning algorithms are designed to predict single responses or a vector of responses, yet many types of response are more naturally organized as matrices or higher-order tensor objects where characteristics are shared across modes. We present a new machine learning algorithm BaTFLED (Bayesian Tensor Factorization Linked to External Data) that predicts values in a three-dimensional response tensor using input features for each of the dimensions. BaTFLED uses a probabilistic Bayesian framework to learn projection matrices mapping input features for each mode into latent representations that multiply to form the response tensor. By utilizing a Tucker decomposition, the model can capture weights for interactions between latent factors for each mode in a small core tensor. Priors that encourage sparsity in the projection matrices and core tensor allow for feature selection and model regularization. This method is shown to far outperform elastic net and neural net models on 'cold start' tasks from data simulated in a three-mode structure. Additionally, we apply the model to predict dose-response curves in a panel of breast cancer cell lines treated with drug compounds that was used as a Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) challenge.

We evaluate the uncertainty quality in neural networks using anomaly detection. We extract uncertainty measures (e.g. entropy) from the predictions of candidate models, use those measures as features for an anomaly detector, and gauge how well the detector differentiates known from unknown classes. We assign higher uncertainty quality to candidate models that lead to better detectors. We also propose a novel method for sampling a variational approximation of a Bayesian neural network, called One-Sample Bayesian Approximation (OSBA). We experiment on two datasets, MNIST and CIFAR10. We compare the following candidate neural network models: Maximum Likelihood, Bayesian Dropout, OSBA, and --- for MNIST --- the standard variational approximation. We show that Bayesian Dropout and OSBA provide better uncertainty information than Maximum Likelihood, and are essentially equivalent to the standard variational approximation, but much faster.

The three operator splitting scheme was recently proposed by [Davis and Yin, 2015] as a method to optimize composite objective functions with one convex smooth term and two convex (possibly non-smooth) terms for which we have access to their proximity operator. In this short note we provide an alternative proof for the sublinear rate of convergence of this method.

This paper proposes a new method for estimating sparse precision matrices in the high dimensional setting. It has been popular to study fast computation and adaptive procedures for this problem. We propose a novel approach, called Sparse Column-wise Inverse Operator, to address these two issues. We analyze an adaptive procedure based on cross validation, and establish its convergence rate under the Frobenius norm. The convergence rates under other matrix norms are also established. This method also enjoys the advantage of fast computation for large-scale problems, via a coordinate descent algorithm. Numerical merits are illustrated using both simulated and real datasets. In particular, it performs favorably on an HIV brain tissue dataset and an ADHD resting-state fMRI dataset.

The computational properties of neural systems are often thought to be implemented in terms of their network dynamics. Hence, recovering the system dynamics from experimentally observed neuronal time series, like multiple single-unit (MSU) recordings or neuroimaging data, is an important step toward understanding its computations. Ideally, one would not only seek a state space representation of the dynamics, but would wish to have access to its governing equations for in-depth analysis. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a computationally powerful and dynamically universal formal framework which has been extensively studied from both the computational and the dynamical systems perspective. Here we develop a semi-analytical maximum-likelihood estimation scheme for piecewise-linear RNNs (PLRNNs) within the statistical framework of state space models, which accounts for noise in both the underlying latent dynamics and the observation process. The Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to infer the latent state distribution, through a global Laplace approximation, and the PLRNN parameters iteratively. After validating the procedure on toy examples, the approach is applied to MSU recordings from the rodent anterior cingulate cortex obtained during performance of a classical working memory task, delayed alternation. A model with 5 states turned out to be sufficient to capture the essential computational dynamics underlying task performance, including stimulus-selective delay activity. The estimated models were rarely multi-stable, but rather were tuned to exhibit slow dynamics in the vicinity of a bifurcation point. In summary, the present work advances a semi-analytical (thus reasonably fast) maximum-likelihood estimation framework for PLRNNs that may enable to recover the relevant dynamics underlying observed neuronal time series, and directly link them to computational properties.

Text documents can be described by a number of abstract concepts such as semantic category, writing style, or sentiment. Machine learning (ML) models have been trained to automatically map documents to these abstract concepts, allowing to annotate very large text collections, more than could be processed by a human in a lifetime. Besides predicting the text's category very accurately, it is also highly desirable to understand how and why the categorization process takes place. In this paper, we demonstrate that such understanding can be achieved by tracing the classification decision back to individual words using layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP), a recently developed technique for explaining predictions of complex non-linear classifiers. We train two word-based ML models, a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a bag-of-words SVM classifier, on a topic categorization task and adapt the LRP method to decompose the predictions of these models onto words. Resulting scores indicate how much individual words contribute to the overall classification decision. This enables one to distill relevant information from text documents without an explicit semantic information extraction step. We further use the word-wise relevance scores for generating novel vector-based document representations which capture semantic information. Based on these document vectors, we introduce a measure of model explanatory power and show that, although the SVM and CNN models perform similarly in terms of classification accuracy, the latter exhibits a higher level of explainability which makes it more comprehensible for humans and potentially more useful for other applications.

Outlier detection is a fundamental data science task with applications ranging from data cleaning to network security. Given the fundamental nature of the task, this has been the subject of much research. Recently, a new class of outlier detection algorithms has emerged, called {\it contextual outlier detection}, and has shown improved performance when studying anomalous behavior in a specific context. However, as we point out in this article, such approaches have limited applicability in situations where the context is sparse (i.e. lacking a suitable frame of reference). Moreover, approaches developed to date do not scale to large datasets. To address these problems, here we propose a novel and robust approach alternative to the state-of-the-art called RObust Contextual Outlier Detection (ROCOD). We utilize a local and global behavioral model based on the relevant contexts, which is then integrated in a natural and robust fashion. We also present several optimizations to improve the scalability of the approach. We run ROCOD on both synthetic and real-world datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms other competitive baselines on the axes of efficacy and efficiency (40X speedup compared to modern contextual outlier detection methods). We also drill down and perform a fine-grained analysis to shed light on the rationale for the performance gains of ROCOD and reveal its effectiveness when handling objects with sparse contexts.

A new report from the White House warns that millions of jobs could be automated out of existence in coming years. But it cautions against one much discussed solution: giving away free money. The report, published this week by the President's Council of Economic Advisers, joins a growing body of work forecasting massive jobs losses due to automation and artificial intelligence. A paper published in 2013 by Oxford University researchers, for example, estimated that as many as 47 percent of all jobs could eventually be automated. The new report, likewise, forecasts millions of job losses in careers such as truck driving, as self-driving vehicles hit the roads, as well as low-skilled jobs.

Register below to listen to and/or download Ardent's latest webinar recording: Ardent Partners' analysts, Andrew Bartolini and Matt York lead a highly interactive discussion on the Procurement Technology Outlook for 2017. Building on Ardent's extensive repository of sourcing and procurement automation research, data, and expertise, this webinar will provide attendees with a "technology and innovation outlook" for 2017 that will help them understand the impact of today's progressive solutions on all relevant processes including strategic sourcing, procurement/P2P, and supplier management. This webinar will also focus on the technologies that unlock greater strategic value in the areas of Big Data and analytics as well as artificial intelligence, machine learning, sourcing optimization, and other cutting-edge technologies. This webinar will utilize Ardent Partners' latest market research data and the expertise of its analyst team to help Chief Procurement Officers and other procurement and sourcing leaders understand the latest technology trends and innovations and ultimately identify the best-fit solutions for their requirements and budgets. This webinar will be a must-attend for any procurement or supply management leader looking to make a near-term technology investment.

The Jeopardy Challenge helped us address requirements that led to the design of the DeepQA architecture and the implementation of Watson. After 3 years of intense research and development by a core team of about 20 researcherss, Watson is performing at human expert levels in terms of precision, confidence, and speed at the Jeopardy quiz show. Our results strongly suggest that DeepQA is an effective and extensible architecture that may be used as a foundation for combining, deploying, evaluating, and advancing a wide range of algorithmic techniques to rapidly advance the field of QA. The architecture and methodology developed as part of this project has highlighted the need to take a systems-level approach to research in QA, and we believe this applies to research in the broader field of AI. We have developed many different algorithms for addressing different kinds of problems in QA and plan to publish many of them in more detail in the future.